Recent weakness in Mexico’s first-quarter 2026 GDP, which contracted 0.8% quarter-on-quarter against expectations of modest expansion, has anchored trader sentiment for the second quarter and produced closely matched implied probabilities of 48% for the 0.0-0.5% growth bucket and 44.5% for the 1.5-2.0% range. Subdued industrial production, softer household consumption, and moderating export momentum tied to U.S. demand have kept forecasts for a rebound contained near 0.1% sequential growth. A resilient labor market and anchored inflation expectations near 4.5% provide some support, yet elevated uncertainty around trade policy and upcoming monthly indicators through June continue to sustain the competitive pricing between low-single-digit positive outcomes.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateMexico GDP growth in Q2 2026?
Mexico GDP growth in Q2 2026?
-0.5-0.0% 51%
0.5-1.0% 48%
1.5-2.0% 38%
1.0-1.5% 26%
BAGO
BAGO
Jul 30, 2026
<-0.5%
26%
-0.5-0.0%
28%
0.0-0.5%
46%
0.5-1.0%
27%
1.0-1.5%
26%
1.5-2.0%
38%
2.0-2.5%
11%
2.5%+
11%
-0.5-0.0% 51%
0.5-1.0% 48%
1.5-2.0% 38%
1.0-1.5% 26%
BAGO
BAGO
Jul 30, 2026
<-0.5%
$4 Vol.
26%
-0.5-0.0%
$24 Vol.
28%
0.0-0.5%
$11 Vol.
46%
0.5-1.0%
$6 Vol.
27%
1.0-1.5%
$2 Vol.
26%
1.5-2.0%
$0 Vol.
38%
2.0-2.5%
$0 Vol.
11%
2.5%+
$0 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent weakness in Mexico’s first-quarter 2026 GDP, which contracted 0.8% quarter-on-quarter against expectations of modest expansion, has anchored trader sentiment for the second quarter and produced closely matched implied probabilities of 48% for the 0.0-0.5% growth bucket and 44.5% for the 1.5-2.0% range. Subdued industrial production, softer household consumption, and moderating export momentum tied to U.S. demand have kept forecasts for a rebound contained near 0.1% sequential growth. A resilient labor market and anchored inflation expectations near 4.5% provide some support, yet elevated uncertainty around trade policy and upcoming monthly indicators through June continue to sustain the competitive pricing between low-single-digit positive outcomes.
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Binuksan ang Market: May 4, 2026, 11:35 AM ET
Volume
$47Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jul 30, 2026Binuksan ang Market
May 4, 2026, 11:35 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent weakness in Mexico’s first-quarter 2026 GDP, which contracted 0.8% quarter-on-quarter against expectations of modest expansion, has anchored trader sentiment for the second quarter and produced closely matched implied probabilities of 48% for the 0.0-0.5% growth bucket and 44.5% for the 1.5-2.0% range. Subdued industrial production, softer household consumption, and moderating export momentum tied to U.S. demand have kept forecasts for a rebound contained near 0.1% sequential growth. A resilient labor market and anchored inflation expectations near 4.5% provide some support, yet elevated uncertainty around trade policy and upcoming monthly indicators through June continue to sustain the competitive pricing between low-single-digit positive outcomes.
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$47Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jul 30, 2026Binuksan ang Market
May 4, 2026, 11:35 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent weakness in Mexico’s first-quarter 2026 GDP, which contracted 0.8% quarter-on-quarter against expectations of modest expansion, has anchored trader sentiment for the second quarter and produced closely matched implied probabilities of 48% for the 0.0-0.5% growth bucket and 44.5% for the 1.5-2.0% range. Subdued industrial production, softer household consumption, and moderating export momentum tied to U.S. demand have kept forecasts for a rebound contained near 0.1% sequential growth. A resilient labor market and anchored inflation expectations near 4.5% provide some support, yet elevated uncertainty around trade policy and upcoming monthly indicators through June continue to sustain the competitive pricing between low-single-digit positive outcomes.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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