Current trader sentiment favoring "No" at 74% stems from subdued natural catastrophe activity through Q1 2026, when global insured losses reached just $20 billion—26% below the 10-year average—with no single event exceeding $10 billion. Official reports from monitoring agencies highlight a string of moderate events, including regional floods, winter storms, and wildfires, that failed to meet typical major-disaster thresholds for insured losses or fatalities. Warmer ocean temperatures and shifting ENSO patterns continue to influence storm intensity and rainfall, yet model consensus points to limited near-term escalation risks. Upcoming Atlantic hurricane season forecasts from NOAA will provide key data points that could shift these odds if early-season activity intensifies beyond historical norms.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateNatural Disaster in 2026?
Natural Disaster in 2026?
$218,685 Vol.
$218,685 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$218,685 Vol.
$218,685 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Current trader sentiment favoring "No" at 74% stems from subdued natural catastrophe activity through Q1 2026, when global insured losses reached just $20 billion—26% below the 10-year average—with no single event exceeding $10 billion. Official reports from monitoring agencies highlight a string of moderate events, including regional floods, winter storms, and wildfires, that failed to meet typical major-disaster thresholds for insured losses or fatalities. Warmer ocean temperatures and shifting ENSO patterns continue to influence storm intensity and rainfall, yet model consensus points to limited near-term escalation risks. Upcoming Atlantic hurricane season forecasts from NOAA will provide key data points that could shift these odds if early-season activity intensifies beyond historical norms.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Binuksan ang Market: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Volume
$218,685Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Current trader sentiment favoring "No" at 74% stems from subdued natural catastrophe activity through Q1 2026, when global insured losses reached just $20 billion—26% below the 10-year average—with no single event exceeding $10 billion. Official reports from monitoring agencies highlight a string of moderate events, including regional floods, winter storms, and wildfires, that failed to meet typical major-disaster thresholds for insured losses or fatalities. Warmer ocean temperatures and shifting ENSO patterns continue to influence storm intensity and rainfall, yet model consensus points to limited near-term escalation risks. Upcoming Atlantic hurricane season forecasts from NOAA will provide key data points that could shift these odds if early-season activity intensifies beyond historical norms.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Volume
$218,685Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Current trader sentiment favoring "No" at 74% stems from subdued natural catastrophe activity through Q1 2026, when global insured losses reached just $20 billion—26% below the 10-year average—with no single event exceeding $10 billion. Official reports from monitoring agencies highlight a string of moderate events, including regional floods, winter storms, and wildfires, that failed to meet typical major-disaster thresholds for insured losses or fatalities. Warmer ocean temperatures and shifting ENSO patterns continue to influence storm intensity and rainfall, yet model consensus points to limited near-term escalation risks. Upcoming Atlantic hurricane season forecasts from NOAA will provide key data points that could shift these odds if early-season activity intensifies beyond historical norms.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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