Recent polls from Datafolha, Quaest, and AtlasIntel show Marília Arraes (PDT) and Humberto Costa (PT) locked in a tight contest for the two Pernambuco Senate seats, with Arraes often edging or tying Costa near 19-30% of valid votes while Mendonça Filho (PL) trails in third. This positioning, alongside Eduardo da Fonte (PP) and Túlio Gadêlha (PSD) further back, keeps probabilities for second place competitive. The candidates' alliances—Arraes and Costa with João Campos (PSB) for governor, versus Mendonça and Gadêlha on Raquel Lyra's (PSD) ticket—shape voter coalitions in a state with substantial undecided and split-ticket ballots. Final surveys released days before the October 4 vote highlight minimal separation among frontrunners, sustaining trader focus on these dynamics over lower-polling names.