São Paulo’s October 2026 Senate race for two seats features a crowded field of more than two dozen pre-candidates, including Marina Silva (REDE), Ricardo Salles (Novo), André do Prado (PL), and others, with no incumbents seeking reelection. Trader consensus reflects this fragmentation, with many outcomes priced near even money and top names clustered in the low-to-mid 40s or below. Recent formalizations of candidacies and ongoing party negotiations have yet to produce clear frontrunners or major polling separation. Factors that could shift probabilities include coalition alignments tied to the presidential contest, targeted voter outreach among key demographics, and any late endorsements or withdrawals that consolidate support ahead of the single-round vote.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateMarina Silva 47%
Petter Maahs 42%
Soninha Francine 41%
Ednelson Cesaretti 41%
BAGO
BAGO
Oct 4, 2026
Marina Silva
47%
Petter Maahs
42%
Soninha Francine
41%
Ednelson Cesaretti
41%
Geraldo Rufino
40%
Salles
38%
Maíra de Souza
26%
Simone Tebet
26%
Dra. Eliana Ferreira
19%
André do Prado
19%
William Teixeira
8%
Marcio Alves
8%
Weller Gonçalves
46%
Guilherme Derrite
42%
Marina Silva 47%
Petter Maahs 42%
Soninha Francine 41%
Ednelson Cesaretti 41%
BAGO
BAGO
Oct 4, 2026
Marina Silva
$20 Vol.
47%
Petter Maahs
$20 Vol.
42%
Soninha Francine
$20 Vol.
41%
Ednelson Cesaretti
$20 Vol.
41%
Geraldo Rufino
$20 Vol.
40%
Salles
$20 Vol.
38%
Maíra de Souza
$20 Vol.
26%
Simone Tebet
$20 Vol.
26%
Dra. Eliana Ferreira
$20 Vol.
19%
André do Prado
$20 Vol.
19%
William Teixeira
$40 Vol.
8%
Marcio Alves
$40 Vol.
8%
Weller Gonçalves
$20 Vol.
46%
Guilherme Derrite
$40 Vol.
42%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).São Paulo’s October 2026 Senate race for two seats features a crowded field of more than two dozen pre-candidates, including Marina Silva (REDE), Ricardo Salles (Novo), André do Prado (PL), and others, with no incumbents seeking reelection. Trader consensus reflects this fragmentation, with many outcomes priced near even money and top names clustered in the low-to-mid 40s or below. Recent formalizations of candidacies and ongoing party negotiations have yet to produce clear frontrunners or major polling separation. Factors that could shift probabilities include coalition alignments tied to the presidential contest, targeted voter outreach among key demographics, and any late endorsements or withdrawals that consolidate support ahead of the single-round vote.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Binuksan ang Market: Aug 17, 2026, 6:11 AM ET
Volume
$340Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Oct 4, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Aug 17, 2026, 6:11 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).São Paulo’s October 2026 Senate race for two seats features a crowded field of more than two dozen pre-candidates, including Marina Silva (REDE), Ricardo Salles (Novo), André do Prado (PL), and others, with no incumbents seeking reelection. Trader consensus reflects this fragmentation, with many outcomes priced near even money and top names clustered in the low-to-mid 40s or below. Recent formalizations of candidacies and ongoing party negotiations have yet to produce clear frontrunners or major polling separation. Factors that could shift probabilities include coalition alignments tied to the presidential contest, targeted voter outreach among key demographics, and any late endorsements or withdrawals that consolidate support ahead of the single-round vote.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$340Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Oct 4, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Aug 17, 2026, 6:11 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...São Paulo’s October 2026 Senate race for two seats features a crowded field of more than two dozen pre-candidates, including Marina Silva (REDE), Ricardo Salles (Novo), André do Prado (PL), and others, with no incumbents seeking reelection. Trader consensus reflects this fragmentation, with many outcomes priced near even money and top names clustered in the low-to-mid 40s or below. Recent formalizations of candidacies and ongoing party negotiations have yet to produce clear frontrunners or major polling separation. Factors that could shift probabilities include coalition alignments tied to the presidential contest, targeted voter outreach among key demographics, and any late endorsements or withdrawals that consolidate support ahead of the single-round vote.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
Mag-ingat sa mga external link.
Mag-ingat sa mga external link.
Mga Madalas na Tanong