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Halalan·Mga Pangunahing Kaalaman

TX-38 Republican Primary Winner

icon for TX-38 Republican Primary Winner
Halalan·Mga Pangunahing Kaalaman

TX-38 Republican Primary Winner

Jon Bonck 94.5%

Barrett McNabb 2.3%

Shelly deZevallos 2.2%

Jennifer Sundt 1.1%

Polymarket

$38,820 Vol.

Jon Bonck 94.5%

Barrett McNabb 2.3%

Shelly deZevallos 2.2%

Jennifer Sundt 1.1%

Polymarket

$38,820 Vol.

Jon Bonck

$18,035 Vol.

95%

Barrett McNabb

$1,683 Vol.

2%

Shelly deZevallos

$3,294 Vol.

2%

Jennifer Sundt

$2,471 Vol.

1%

Carmen Montiel

$1,578 Vol.

1%

Craig Goralski

$1,655 Vol.

1%

Larry Rubin

$2,250 Vol.

1%

Michael Pratt

$2,835 Vol.

1%

Jeff Yuna

$2,552 Vol.

<1%

Avery Ayers

$2,465 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the TX-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on March 3, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Jon Bonck's 94.5% implied probability as trader consensus frontrunner in the TX-38 Republican primary runoff reflects his commanding 47% first-round vote share on March 3—more than double Shelly deZevallos's 19%—in the open seat vacated by Rep. Wesley Hunt's U.S. Senate bid. High-profile endorsements from President Trump, Sen. Ted Cruz, and Club for Growth, plus superior fundraising exceeding $1 million, have solidified his position amid a quiet campaign stretch leading into early voting this week for the May 26 contest. While deZevallos trails at 2.2%, an upset would require a late scandal, voter turnout surge among her base, or Bonck missteps, though historical runoff patterns favor dominant primary leaders in safe Republican districts like TX-38.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the TX-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on March 3, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$38,820
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
May 26, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Feb 6, 2026, 6:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the TX-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on March 3, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the TX-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on March 3, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Jon Bonck's 94.5% implied probability as trader consensus frontrunner in the TX-38 Republican primary runoff reflects his commanding 47% first-round vote share on March 3—more than double Shelly deZevallos's 19%—in the open seat vacated by Rep. Wesley Hunt's U.S. Senate bid. High-profile endorsements from President Trump, Sen. Ted Cruz, and Club for Growth, plus superior fundraising exceeding $1 million, have solidified his position amid a quiet campaign stretch leading into early voting this week for the May 26 contest. While deZevallos trails at 2.2%, an upset would require a late scandal, voter turnout surge among her base, or Bonck missteps, though historical runoff patterns favor dominant primary leaders in safe Republican districts like TX-38.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the TX-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on March 3, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$38,820
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
May 26, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Feb 6, 2026, 6:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the TX-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on March 3, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Mga Madalas na Tanong

Ang "TX-38 Republican Primary Winner" ay isang prediction market sa Polymarket na may 10 posibleng outcomes kung saan bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares batay sa kanilang pinaniniwalaan na mangyayari. Ang kasalukuyang nangunguna ay "Jon Bonck" sa 95%, sinusundan ng "Barrett McNabb" sa 2%. Ang mga presyo ay sumasalamin sa real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. Halimbawa, ang isang share na naka-presyo sa 95¢ ay nagpapahiwatig na kolektibong itinatakda ng market ang 95% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Patuloy na nagbabago ang mga odds na ito habang tumutugon ang mga trader sa mga bagong development at impormasyon. Ang mga shares sa tamang outcome ay mare-redeem sa $1 bawat isa sa market resolution.

Sa ngayon, ang "TX-38 Republican Primary Winner" ay naka-generate ng $38.8K sa kabuuang trading volume mula nang ilunsad ang market noong Feb 6, 2026. Ang antas na ito ng trading activity ay sumasalamin sa malakas na engagement mula sa Polymarket community at tumutulong na matiyak na ang kasalukuyang odds ay sinusuportahan ng malawak na pool ng mga market participant. Maaari mong subaybayan ang live price movements at mag-trade sa anumang outcome nang direkta sa pahinang ito.

Para mag-trade sa "TX-38 Republican Primary Winner," i-browse ang 10 available na outcomes na nakalista sa pahinang ito. Ang bawat outcome ay may kasalukuyang presyo na kumakatawan sa implied probability ng market. Para kumuha ng posisyon, piliin ang outcome na pinaniniwalaan mong pinaka-malamang, piliin ang "Yes" para mag-trade pabor dito o "No" para mag-trade laban dito, ilagay ang iyong halaga, at i-click ang "Trade." Kung tama ang iyong napiling outcome kapag na-resolve ang market, nagbabayad ang iyong "Yes" shares ng $1 bawat isa. Kung mali, nagbabayad ang mga ito ng $0. Maaari ka ring magbenta ng iyong shares anumang oras bago ang resolution kung gusto mong i-lock in ang kita o bawasan ang pagkalugi.

Ang kasalukuyang frontrunner para sa "TX-38 Republican Primary Winner" ay "Jon Bonck" sa 95%, ibig sabihin itinatakda ng market ang 95% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Ang sumunod na pinaka-malapit na outcome ay "Barrett McNabb" sa 2%. Nag-a-update ang mga odds na ito sa real-time habang bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares, kaya sinasalamin nila ang pinakabagong kolektibong view kung ano ang pinaka-malamang na mangyari. Bumalik nang madalas o i-bookmark ang pahinang ito para sundan kung paano nagbabago ang odds habang lumilitaw ang bagong impormasyon.

Ang mga resolution rules para sa "TX-38 Republican Primary Winner" ay tiyak na nagde-define kung ano ang kailangang mangyari para sa bawat outcome na maideklara bilang panalo — kasama ang mga opisyal na data source na ginagamit para matukoy ang resulta. Maaari mong i-review ang kumpletong resolution criteria sa "Rules" section sa pahinang ito sa itaas ng mga komento. Inirerekomenda namin na basahin nang mabuti ang mga patakaran bago mag-trade, dahil tinutukoy nila ang mga tiyak na kondisyon, edge cases, at mga source na namamahala kung paano nise-settle ang market na ito.