Redistricting after the Supreme Court’s June ruling reduced the district’s Black voting-age population and shifted its partisan lean toward Republicans, giving Rhett Marques a structural edge in the November 3 general election against incumbent Shomari Figures. Models such as On Point Politics project Marques ahead by roughly four points with a 75 percent win probability, while Cook Political Report rates the seat Likely or Lean Republican. Recent campaign activity includes Figures’ television ads tying Marques to Alabama’s 2019 gas-tax increase and Marques’ attacks on Figures’ votes against stock-trading restrictions and other measures. Outside spending has favored Marques through Trump-aligned groups, while Figures has outraised him and drawn national Democratic support. Polls show a tighter race than the fundamentals suggest, keeping trader-implied probabilities at 69 percent for Marques and 31 percent for Figures eight days before voting.