Alabama's legislature recently implemented a new congressional map, shifting the 2nd district from a competitive seat—previously won by Democratic incumbent Shomari Figures in 2024 under court-ordered lines—to a solidly Republican one rated Trump +14 in partisan voting data. This redistricting, enabled by a Supreme Court ruling against racial gerrymandering, prompted Governor Kay Ivey's special session and delayed primaries to August 11 for affected districts, including AL-02. Figures seeks reelection amid a transformed electorate favoring Republicans based on 2024 results, while GOP candidates like Joshua McKee have entered the special primary. Trader consensus prices reflect this structural shift, pricing a GOP hold at 74.5% implied probability ahead of the November 3 general election.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоAL-02 House Election Winner
AL-02 House Election Winner
$28,210 Обс.
$28,210 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
75%
Democratic Party
25%
$28,210 Обс.
$28,210 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$15,392 Обс.
75%
Democratic Party
$12,818 Обс.
25%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Alabama's legislature recently implemented a new congressional map, shifting the 2nd district from a competitive seat—previously won by Democratic incumbent Shomari Figures in 2024 under court-ordered lines—to a solidly Republican one rated Trump +14 in partisan voting data. This redistricting, enabled by a Supreme Court ruling against racial gerrymandering, prompted Governor Kay Ivey's special session and delayed primaries to August 11 for affected districts, including AL-02. Figures seeks reelection amid a transformed electorate favoring Republicans based on 2024 results, while GOP candidates like Joshua McKee have entered the special primary. Trader consensus prices reflect this structural shift, pricing a GOP hold at 74.5% implied probability ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Ринок відкрито: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Обсяг
$28,210Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Alabama's legislature recently implemented a new congressional map, shifting the 2nd district from a competitive seat—previously won by Democratic incumbent Shomari Figures in 2024 under court-ordered lines—to a solidly Republican one rated Trump +14 in partisan voting data. This redistricting, enabled by a Supreme Court ruling against racial gerrymandering, prompted Governor Kay Ivey's special session and delayed primaries to August 11 for affected districts, including AL-02. Figures seeks reelection amid a transformed electorate favoring Republicans based on 2024 results, while GOP candidates like Joshua McKee have entered the special primary. Trader consensus prices reflect this structural shift, pricing a GOP hold at 74.5% implied probability ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Обсяг
$28,210Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Alabama's legislature recently implemented a new congressional map, shifting the 2nd district from a competitive seat—previously won by Democratic incumbent Shomari Figures in 2024 under court-ordered lines—to a solidly Republican one rated Trump +14 in partisan voting data. This redistricting, enabled by a Supreme Court ruling against racial gerrymandering, prompted Governor Kay Ivey's special session and delayed primaries to August 11 for affected districts, including AL-02. Figures seeks reelection amid a transformed electorate favoring Republicans based on 2024 results, while GOP candidates like Joshua McKee have entered the special primary. Trader consensus prices reflect this structural shift, pricing a GOP hold at 74.5% implied probability ahead of the November 3 general election.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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