Recent polling from institutes such as Quaest, Real Time Big Data and Veritá shows ACM Neto of União Brasil holding a narrow edge or statistical tie with incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues of the Workers’ Party in first-round scenarios, with margins typically within the margin of error. This pattern of closely contested surveys, combined with the structural advantages of incumbency and the historical 2022 runoff precedent in Bahia, keeps trader consensus tight between the two leading names ahead of the October 4 election. Minor candidates remain marginal in voter intention data, while national party alignments and state-level approval trends continue to shape the narrow gap reflected in current market pricing.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоACM Neto 48%
Jerônimo Rodrigues 40%
Kleber Rosa <1%
João Roma <1%
$13,978 Обс.
$13,978 Обс.
Oct 4, 2026
ACM Neto
48%
Jerônimo Rodrigues
40%
Kleber Rosa
<1%
João Roma
<1%
Bruno Soares Reis
<1%
José Carlos Aleluia
<1%
Rui Costa
<1%
ACM Neto 48%
Jerônimo Rodrigues 40%
Kleber Rosa <1%
João Roma <1%
$13,978 Обс.
$13,978 Обс.
Oct 4, 2026
ACM Neto
$3,766 Обс.
48%
Jerônimo Rodrigues
$3,844 Обс.
40%
Kleber Rosa
$1,281 Обс.
<1%
João Roma
$966 Обс.
<1%
Bruno Soares Reis
$1,060 Обс.
<1%
José Carlos Aleluia
$1,938 Обс.
<1%
Rui Costa
$1,124 Обс.
<1%
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling from institutes such as Quaest, Real Time Big Data and Veritá shows ACM Neto of União Brasil holding a narrow edge or statistical tie with incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues of the Workers’ Party in first-round scenarios, with margins typically within the margin of error. This pattern of closely contested surveys, combined with the structural advantages of incumbency and the historical 2022 runoff precedent in Bahia, keeps trader consensus tight between the two leading names ahead of the October 4 election. Minor candidates remain marginal in voter intention data, while national party alignments and state-level approval trends continue to shape the narrow gap reflected in current market pricing.
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Ринок відкрито: Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ET
Обсяг
$13,978Дата завершення
Oct 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling from institutes such as Quaest, Real Time Big Data and Veritá shows ACM Neto of União Brasil holding a narrow edge or statistical tie with incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues of the Workers’ Party in first-round scenarios, with margins typically within the margin of error. This pattern of closely contested surveys, combined with the structural advantages of incumbency and the historical 2022 runoff precedent in Bahia, keeps trader consensus tight between the two leading names ahead of the October 4 election. Minor candidates remain marginal in voter intention data, while national party alignments and state-level approval trends continue to shape the narrow gap reflected in current market pricing.
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Обсяг
$13,978Дата завершення
Oct 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling from institutes such as Quaest, Real Time Big Data and Veritá shows ACM Neto of União Brasil holding a narrow edge or statistical tie with incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues of the Workers’ Party in first-round scenarios, with margins typically within the margin of error. This pattern of closely contested surveys, combined with the structural advantages of incumbency and the historical 2022 runoff precedent in Bahia, keeps trader consensus tight between the two leading names ahead of the October 4 election. Minor candidates remain marginal in voter intention data, while national party alignments and state-level approval trends continue to shape the narrow gap reflected in current market pricing.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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