A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling from May 2026 shows incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva holding a narrow lead in first-round simulations around 38-40 percent, while Senator Flávio Bolsonaro consolidates much of the right-wing vote at 33-37 percent after receiving his father Jair Bolsonaro’s endorsement late last year. Lula’s decision to seek a fourth term has framed the contest as a referendum on his administration’s handling of the economy and public security, with crime emerging as a top voter concern. Flávio’s positioning benefits from the former president’s ineligibility following legal proceedings, allowing the Liberal Party candidate to unify conservative support that previously fragmented across figures like Romeu Zema and Ronaldo Caiado. Simulated runoff polls remain statistically tied, underscoring how late-campaign developments on economic indicators or voter turnout in key states could still shift the balance before the October first round. Trader pricing reflects this closely contested dynamic driven by Brazil’s polarized electorate.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Recent polling from May 2026 shows incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva holding a narrow lead in first-round simulations around 38-40 percent, while Senator Flávio Bolsonaro consolidates much of the right-wing vote at 33-37 percent after receiving his father Jair Bolsonaro’s endorsement late last year. Lula’s decision to seek a fourth term has framed the contest as a referendum on his administration’s handling of the economy and public security, with crime emerging as a top voter concern. Flávio’s positioning benefits from the former president’s ineligibility following legal proceedings, allowing the Liberal Party candidate to unify conservative support that previously fragmented across figures like Romeu Zema and Ronaldo Caiado. Simulated runoff polls remain statistically tied, underscoring how late-campaign developments on economic indicators or voter turnout in key states could still shift the balance before the October first round. Trader pricing reflects this closely contested dynamic driven by Brazil’s polarized electorate.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
May 12 2026
Flávio Bolsonaro’s price drops 10 points after controversial interview
Flávio Bolsonaro drops to 33%12%
An interview in which Flávio made inflammatory remarks led to a rapid decline from 45 % to 33 %, reflecting voter backlash.
May 7 2026
Brazil’s Supreme Court moves Bolsonaro to larger cell with outdoor area
Flávio Bolsonaro drops to 34%10%
Brazil’s Supreme Court ordered the transfer of Jair Bolsonaro to a larger prison cell with better conditions, which may affect his health and political influence. This event followed his recent medical issues and was part of ongoing legal proceedings.
May 7 2026
Flávio Bolsonaro peaks at 45 % after rally in São Paulo
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 45%7%
A large rally in São Paulo energized Flávio’s base, pushing his price to a market high before a slight correction later in May.
A slowdown in Brazil’s GDP growth lowered voter confidence in Lula, driving his price to a new trough.
Apr 18 2026
Lula’s approval dips after controversial Amazon mining concessions
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva drops to 40%12%
Environmental controversy hurt Lula’s standing, contributing to a decline from 52 % to 40 % in his market price.
Mar 12 2026
Former President Jair Bolsonaro undergoes double hernia surgery in prison
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 17%5%
Jair Bolsonaro underwent double hernia surgery while serving his 27-year prison sentence, temporarily affecting his health and political activity. This event coincided with a temporary increase in attention to Bolsonaro's condition and his son Flávio's candidacy.
Feb 16 2026
Flávio Bolsonaro reaches 29 % after releasing detailed policy platform
Flávio Bolsonaro rises to 29%3%
Flávio’s rollout of a concrete economic platform reassured voters, pushing his price upward during February.
Jan 30 2026
Brazil’s finance minister Fernando Haddad resigns to run for Sao Paulo governor
Fernando Haddad plunges to 3%49%
Fernando Haddad resigned as Brazil’s finance minister to run for governor of Sao Paulo, reducing his chances in the presidential race and causing his market price to drop significantly from over 50% to around 3%.
Jan 8 2026
Brazil’s Lula vetoes bill that could reduce Bolsonaro’s prison time
President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva vetoed a bill that would have reduced the 27-year prison sentence of former President Jair Bolsonaro for his coup attempt, reinforcing Lula's stance against Bolsonaro and impacting Bolsonaro's political prospects negatively.
Dec 30 2025
Renan Santos’ poll share collapses after poor debate performance
Renan Santos plunges to 6%44%
A televised debate in late December highlighted Santos’ lack of national recognition, causing his price to tumble from 50 % to single‑digit levels.
Dec 25 2025
Flávio Bolsonaro announced as presidential candidate by his father Jair Bolsonaro
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 12%11%
Former President Jair Bolsonaro appointed his son Flávio Bolsonaro as the presidential candidate for their party, boosting Flávio's profile and causing a significant rise in his market price from near 1% to over 12%. This announcement positioned Flávio as a main challenger to Lula.
Dec 20 2025
Michelle Bolsonaro’s public support drops after husband’s surgery
Michelle Bolsonaro plunges to 1%51%
With Jair Bolsonaro’s limited visibility, Michelle Bolsonaro’s own political relevance faded sharply, reflected in a plunge of her market price to near‑zero.
Dec 20 2025
Jair Bolsonaro undergoes double hernia surgery and returns to prison
Flávio Bolsonaro surges to 27%15%
Bolsonaro’s health episode kept him out of the public eye, limiting his campaign impact and shifting attention to his son Flávio, whose price continued to rise.
Dec 6 2025
Lula’s administration replaces Haddad with Dario Durigan
Fernando Haddad dips to 2%2%
The cabinet shuffle further signaled a shift away from Haddad’s influence, reinforcing the market’s move away from his candidacy.
Dec 6 2025
Finance Minister Fernando Haddad resigns to run for São Paulo governor
Fernando Haddad plunges to 4%48%
Haddad’s resignation removed a senior Lula ally from the cabinet, diminishing his personal political brand and causing a steep decline in his own election market price.
Oct 12 2025
Flávio Bolsonaro emerges as Bolsonaro’s official presidential candidate
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 11%9%
Following the veto, Flávio Bolsonaro announced he would run as the official candidate of the Bolsonaro camp, giving his name a clear electoral identity and driving his market price upward.
Oct 12 2025
President Lula vetoes bill that would reduce Bolsonaro’s prison sentence
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva jumps to 63%8%
Lula’s veto signaled a hard‑line stance against Bolsonaro’s legal challenges, boosting Lula’s perceived strength and raising Flávio Bolsonaro’s profile as the main challenger, while hurting Bolsonaro‑aligned candidates.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling from May 2026 shows incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva holding a narrow lead in first-round simulations around 38-40 percent, while Senator Flávio Bolsonaro consolidates much of the right-wing vote at 33-37 percent after receiving his father Jair Bolsonaro’s endorsement late last year. Lula’s decision to seek a fourth term has framed the contest as a referendum on his administration’s handling of the economy and public security, with crime emerging as a top voter concern. Flávio’s positioning benefits from the former president’s ineligibility following legal proceedings, allowing the Liberal Party candidate to unify conservative support that previously fragmented across figures like Romeu Zema and Ronaldo Caiado. Simulated runoff polls remain statistically tied, underscoring how late-campaign developments on economic indicators or voter turnout in key states could still shift the balance before the October first round. Trader pricing reflects this closely contested dynamic driven by Brazil’s polarized electorate.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Recent polling from May 2026 shows incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva holding a narrow lead in first-round simulations around 38-40 percent, while Senator Flávio Bolsonaro consolidates much of the right-wing vote at 33-37 percent after receiving his father Jair Bolsonaro’s endorsement late last year. Lula’s decision to seek a fourth term has framed the contest as a referendum on his administration’s handling of the economy and public security, with crime emerging as a top voter concern. Flávio’s positioning benefits from the former president’s ineligibility following legal proceedings, allowing the Liberal Party candidate to unify conservative support that previously fragmented across figures like Romeu Zema and Ronaldo Caiado. Simulated runoff polls remain statistically tied, underscoring how late-campaign developments on economic indicators or voter turnout in key states could still shift the balance before the October first round. Trader pricing reflects this closely contested dynamic driven by Brazil’s polarized electorate.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
May 12 2026
Flávio Bolsonaro’s price drops 10 points after controversial interview
Flávio Bolsonaro drops to 33%12%
An interview in which Flávio made inflammatory remarks led to a rapid decline from 45 % to 33 %, reflecting voter backlash.
May 7 2026
Brazil’s Supreme Court moves Bolsonaro to larger cell with outdoor area
Flávio Bolsonaro drops to 34%10%
Brazil’s Supreme Court ordered the transfer of Jair Bolsonaro to a larger prison cell with better conditions, which may affect his health and political influence. This event followed his recent medical issues and was part of ongoing legal proceedings.
May 7 2026
Flávio Bolsonaro peaks at 45 % after rally in São Paulo
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 45%7%
A large rally in São Paulo energized Flávio’s base, pushing his price to a market high before a slight correction later in May.
A slowdown in Brazil’s GDP growth lowered voter confidence in Lula, driving his price to a new trough.
Apr 18 2026
Lula’s approval dips after controversial Amazon mining concessions
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva drops to 40%12%
Environmental controversy hurt Lula’s standing, contributing to a decline from 52 % to 40 % in his market price.
Mar 12 2026
Former President Jair Bolsonaro undergoes double hernia surgery in prison
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 17%5%
Jair Bolsonaro underwent double hernia surgery while serving his 27-year prison sentence, temporarily affecting his health and political activity. This event coincided with a temporary increase in attention to Bolsonaro's condition and his son Flávio's candidacy.
Feb 16 2026
Flávio Bolsonaro reaches 29 % after releasing detailed policy platform
Flávio Bolsonaro rises to 29%3%
Flávio’s rollout of a concrete economic platform reassured voters, pushing his price upward during February.
Jan 30 2026
Brazil’s finance minister Fernando Haddad resigns to run for Sao Paulo governor
Fernando Haddad plunges to 3%49%
Fernando Haddad resigned as Brazil’s finance minister to run for governor of Sao Paulo, reducing his chances in the presidential race and causing his market price to drop significantly from over 50% to around 3%.
Jan 8 2026
Brazil’s Lula vetoes bill that could reduce Bolsonaro’s prison time
President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva vetoed a bill that would have reduced the 27-year prison sentence of former President Jair Bolsonaro for his coup attempt, reinforcing Lula's stance against Bolsonaro and impacting Bolsonaro's political prospects negatively.
Dec 30 2025
Renan Santos’ poll share collapses after poor debate performance
Renan Santos plunges to 6%44%
A televised debate in late December highlighted Santos’ lack of national recognition, causing his price to tumble from 50 % to single‑digit levels.
Dec 25 2025
Flávio Bolsonaro announced as presidential candidate by his father Jair Bolsonaro
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 12%11%
Former President Jair Bolsonaro appointed his son Flávio Bolsonaro as the presidential candidate for their party, boosting Flávio's profile and causing a significant rise in his market price from near 1% to over 12%. This announcement positioned Flávio as a main challenger to Lula.
Dec 20 2025
Michelle Bolsonaro’s public support drops after husband’s surgery
Michelle Bolsonaro plunges to 1%51%
With Jair Bolsonaro’s limited visibility, Michelle Bolsonaro’s own political relevance faded sharply, reflected in a plunge of her market price to near‑zero.
Dec 20 2025
Jair Bolsonaro undergoes double hernia surgery and returns to prison
Flávio Bolsonaro surges to 27%15%
Bolsonaro’s health episode kept him out of the public eye, limiting his campaign impact and shifting attention to his son Flávio, whose price continued to rise.
Dec 6 2025
Lula’s administration replaces Haddad with Dario Durigan
Fernando Haddad dips to 2%2%
The cabinet shuffle further signaled a shift away from Haddad’s influence, reinforcing the market’s move away from his candidacy.
Dec 6 2025
Finance Minister Fernando Haddad resigns to run for São Paulo governor
Fernando Haddad plunges to 4%48%
Haddad’s resignation removed a senior Lula ally from the cabinet, diminishing his personal political brand and causing a steep decline in his own election market price.
Oct 12 2025
Flávio Bolsonaro emerges as Bolsonaro’s official presidential candidate
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 11%9%
Following the veto, Flávio Bolsonaro announced he would run as the official candidate of the Bolsonaro camp, giving his name a clear electoral identity and driving his market price upward.
Oct 12 2025
President Lula vetoes bill that would reduce Bolsonaro’s prison sentence
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva jumps to 63%8%
Lula’s veto signaled a hard‑line stance against Bolsonaro’s legal challenges, boosting Lula’s perceived strength and raising Flávio Bolsonaro’s profile as the main challenger, while hurting Bolsonaro‑aligned candidates.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання
«Президентські вибори в Бразилії» — це ринок прогнозів на Polymarket з 17 можливими результатами, де трейдери купують і продають акції залежно від того, що, на їхню думку, станеться. Поточний лідер — «Луїс Інасіу Лула да Сілва» з 45%, далі «Флавіо Болсонару» з 32%. Ціни відображають краудсорсингові ймовірності в реальному часі. Акції правильного результату погашаються по $1 кожна при вирішенні ринку.
Станом на сьогодні, «Президентські вибори в Бразилії» згенерував $78.9 million загального обсягу торгів з моменту запуску ринку Sep 18, 2025. Цей рівень торгової активності відображає сильну залученість спільноти Polymarket та забезпечує, що поточні шанси базуються на глибокому пулі учасників ринку. Ви можете відстежувати рухи цін наживо та торгувати будь-яким результатом прямо на цій сторінці.
Щоб торгувати на «Президентські вибори в Бразилії», перегляньте 17 доступних результатів на цій сторінці. Кожен результат відображає поточну ціну — ймовірність ринку. Оберіть результат, оберіть «Так» чи «Ні», введіть суму та натисніть «Торгувати». Якщо ваш вибір правильний при вирішенні, акції «Так» виплачують $1. Якщо ні — $0. Ви також можете продати акції в будь-який час до вирішення.
Поточний фаворит для «Президентські вибори в Бразилії» — «Луїс Інасіу Лула да Сілва» з 45%. Наступний — «Флавіо Болсонару» з 32%. Ці шанси оновлюються в реальному часі, коли трейдери купують і продають акції. Слідкуйте за змінами шансів з появою нової інформації.
Правила вирішення для «Президентські вибори в Бразилії» точно визначають, що має статися для оголошення переможця — включаючи офіційні джерела даних. Ви можете переглянути повні критерії вирішення в розділі «Правила» на цій сторінці. Рекомендуємо уважно прочитати правила перед торгівлею.
Так. Вам не потрібно торгувати, щоб бути в курсі. Ця сторінка служить трекером наживо для «Президентські вибори в Бразилії». Ймовірності результатів оновлюються в реальному часі з новими угодами. Збережіть сторінку та перегляньте коментарі інших трейдерів.
Шанси Polymarket встановлюються реальними трейдерами, які вкладають реальні гроші, що сприяє точним прогнозам. З $78.9 million торгового обсягу на «Президентські вибори в Бразилії» ці ціни агрегують колективні знання тисяч учасників. Polymarket має місячний показник точності 94%. Для актуальної статистики точності відвідайте сторінку точності на Polymarket.
Щоб зробити першу угоду на «Президентські вибори в Бразилії», зареєструйте безкоштовний акаунт на Polymarket та поповніть його криптою, кредитною чи дебетовою карткою або банківським переказом. Після поповнення поверніться на цю сторінку, оберіть результат, введіть суму та натисніть «Торгувати». Якщо ви новачок на ринках прогнозів, натисніть «Як це працює» вгорі будь-якої сторінки Polymarket.
На Polymarket ціна кожного результату відображає ймовірність ринку. Ціна 45¢ для «Луїс Інасіу Лула да Сілва» на ринку «Президентські вибори в Бразилії» означає, що трейдери колективно оцінюють шанс цього результату приблизно в 45%. Якщо ви купите акції «Так» за 45¢ і результат правильний, ви отримаєте $1.00 за акцію — прибуток 55¢ за акцію.
Ринок «Президентські вибори в Бразилії» запланований до вирішення приблизно Oct 4, 2026. Торгівля залишатиметься відкритою, а шанси продовжуватимуть змінюватися з появою нової інформації до цієї дати.
Ринок «Президентські вибори в Бразилії» має активна спільнота з 7,166 коментарями, де трейдери діляться аналізом, обговорюють результати та останні новини. Прокрутіть вниз до розділу коментарів. Ви також можете фільтрувати за «Топ власники» або переглянути вкладку «Активність» для стрічки угод у реальному часі.
Polymarket — найбільший ринок прогнозів у світі, де ви можете бути в курсі подій та заробляти на знаннях реальних подій. Трейдери купують і продають акції на результати тем від політики та виборів до крипто, фінансів, спорту, технологій та культури, включаючи ринки, як «Президентські вибори в Бразилії». Ціни відображають краудсорсингові ймовірності в реальному часі.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання