California's redrawn First Congressional District, shaped by 2025 redistricting under Proposition 50, now favors Democratic candidates with an estimated partisan lean of roughly twelve points toward Kamala Harris's 2024 performance. This structural shift underpins the 91.5 percent trader consensus for a Democratic win in the November 2026 general election, as the new boundaries incorporate additional Democratic-leaning areas previously outside the district. Recent polling in the June top-two primary shows Democratic state Senator Mike McGuire holding a narrow lead over Republican Assemblymember James Gallagher, with Democratic fundraising also ahead. A split Democratic field or unusually high Republican turnout could advance two Republicans to November and alter the outcome, though historical patterns in similar California districts make that path narrow.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоCA-01 House Election Winner
CA-01 House Election Winner
$22,046 Обс.
$22,046 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
92%
Republican Party
6%
$22,046 Обс.
$22,046 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$14,173 Обс.
92%
Republican Party
$7,873 Обс.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's redrawn First Congressional District, shaped by 2025 redistricting under Proposition 50, now favors Democratic candidates with an estimated partisan lean of roughly twelve points toward Kamala Harris's 2024 performance. This structural shift underpins the 91.5 percent trader consensus for a Democratic win in the November 2026 general election, as the new boundaries incorporate additional Democratic-leaning areas previously outside the district. Recent polling in the June top-two primary shows Democratic state Senator Mike McGuire holding a narrow lead over Republican Assemblymember James Gallagher, with Democratic fundraising also ahead. A split Democratic field or unusually high Republican turnout could advance two Republicans to November and alter the outcome, though historical patterns in similar California districts make that path narrow.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Ринок відкрито: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Обсяг
$22,046Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's redrawn First Congressional District, shaped by 2025 redistricting under Proposition 50, now favors Democratic candidates with an estimated partisan lean of roughly twelve points toward Kamala Harris's 2024 performance. This structural shift underpins the 91.5 percent trader consensus for a Democratic win in the November 2026 general election, as the new boundaries incorporate additional Democratic-leaning areas previously outside the district. Recent polling in the June top-two primary shows Democratic state Senator Mike McGuire holding a narrow lead over Republican Assemblymember James Gallagher, with Democratic fundraising also ahead. A split Democratic field or unusually high Republican turnout could advance two Republicans to November and alter the outcome, though historical patterns in similar California districts make that path narrow.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Обсяг
$22,046Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...California's redrawn First Congressional District, shaped by 2025 redistricting under Proposition 50, now favors Democratic candidates with an estimated partisan lean of roughly twelve points toward Kamala Harris's 2024 performance. This structural shift underpins the 91.5 percent trader consensus for a Democratic win in the November 2026 general election, as the new boundaries incorporate additional Democratic-leaning areas previously outside the district. Recent polling in the June top-two primary shows Democratic state Senator Mike McGuire holding a narrow lead over Republican Assemblymember James Gallagher, with Democratic fundraising also ahead. A split Democratic field or unusually high Republican turnout could advance two Republicans to November and alter the outcome, though historical patterns in similar California districts make that path narrow.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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