California's 1st congressional district shifted significantly leftward under new boundaries adopted after Proposition 50, converting a former Republican stronghold into a seat forecasters rate as Safe Democratic for the November 2026 general election. Republican James Gallagher won a June 2026 special election under the prior map by a wide margin, but the rematch against Democratic state Senator Mike McGuire now occurs on lines that place the contest well outside the national environment needed for a Republican hold. Forecasters across multiple outlets have converged on a Democratic flip, aligning with trader consensus that assigns the Republican Party only a low-single-digit implied probability. Late national swings, turnout surprises in rural counties, or candidate-specific developments remain the primary variables that could narrow the gap before Election Day.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоCA-01 House Election Winner
CA-01 House Election Winner
$32,790 Обс.
$32,790 Обс.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
94%
Republican Party
5%
$32,790 Обс.
$32,790 Обс.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$24,068 Обс.
94%
Republican Party
$8,722 Обс.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 1st congressional district shifted significantly leftward under new boundaries adopted after Proposition 50, converting a former Republican stronghold into a seat forecasters rate as Safe Democratic for the November 2026 general election. Republican James Gallagher won a June 2026 special election under the prior map by a wide margin, but the rematch against Democratic state Senator Mike McGuire now occurs on lines that place the contest well outside the national environment needed for a Republican hold. Forecasters across multiple outlets have converged on a Democratic flip, aligning with trader consensus that assigns the Republican Party only a low-single-digit implied probability. Late national swings, turnout surprises in rural counties, or candidate-specific developments remain the primary variables that could narrow the gap before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Ринок відкрито: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Обсяг
$32,790Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 1st congressional district shifted significantly leftward under new boundaries adopted after Proposition 50, converting a former Republican stronghold into a seat forecasters rate as Safe Democratic for the November 2026 general election. Republican James Gallagher won a June 2026 special election under the prior map by a wide margin, but the rematch against Democratic state Senator Mike McGuire now occurs on lines that place the contest well outside the national environment needed for a Republican hold. Forecasters across multiple outlets have converged on a Democratic flip, aligning with trader consensus that assigns the Republican Party only a low-single-digit implied probability. Late national swings, turnout surprises in rural counties, or candidate-specific developments remain the primary variables that could narrow the gap before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Обсяг
$32,790Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...California's 1st congressional district shifted significantly leftward under new boundaries adopted after Proposition 50, converting a former Republican stronghold into a seat forecasters rate as Safe Democratic for the November 2026 general election. Republican James Gallagher won a June 2026 special election under the prior map by a wide margin, but the rematch against Democratic state Senator Mike McGuire now occurs on lines that place the contest well outside the national environment needed for a Republican hold. Forecasters across multiple outlets have converged on a Democratic flip, aligning with trader consensus that assigns the Republican Party only a low-single-digit implied probability. Late national swings, turnout surprises in rural counties, or candidate-specific developments remain the primary variables that could narrow the gap before Election Day.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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