Iván Cepeda of the Historic Pact maintains a consistent polling lead near 40 percent in the final weeks before Colombia’s May 31 first round, while right-wing support remains divided between Abelardo de la Espriella and Paloma Valencia at roughly 20 percent each. This fragmentation keeps the projected margin between first and second place inside the 10-15 point band favored by traders, as late consolidation among opposition voters or shifts in turnout could compress or widen the gap. Security concerns and policy continuity with the outgoing Petro administration continue to shape voter preferences across urban and rural blocs, with no candidate positioned for an outright majority. The market’s pricing reflects uncertainty over whether the right can narrow the deficit enough to force a tighter outcome or whether Cepeda’s base will deliver the steadier spread reflected in recent surveys.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоColombia Election 1st Round: Margin of Victory?
Colombia Election 1st Round: Margin of Victory?
Cepeda Castro 10-15% 38%
Cepeda Castro 5-10% 32%
de la Espriella Win 15%
Cepeda Castro 0-5% 10.1%
$14,918 Обс.
$14,918 Обс.
May 31, 2026
Cepeda Castro 20%+
4%
Cepeda Castro 15-20%
8%
Cepeda Castro 10-15%
38%
Cepeda Castro 5-10%
32%
Cepeda Castro 0-5%
10%
de la Espriella Win
15%
Valencia Win
1%
Other
<1%
Cepeda Castro 10-15% 38%
Cepeda Castro 5-10% 32%
de la Espriella Win 15%
Cepeda Castro 0-5% 10.1%
$14,918 Обс.
$14,918 Обс.
May 31, 2026
Cepeda Castro 20%+
$1,798 Обс.
4%
Cepeda Castro 15-20%
$1,213 Обс.
8%
Cepeda Castro 10-15%
$1,102 Обс.
38%
Cepeda Castro 5-10%
$1,116 Обс.
32%
Cepeda Castro 0-5%
$1,252 Обс.
10%
de la Espriella Win
$4,100 Обс.
15%
Valencia Win
$2,270 Обс.
1%
Other
$2,066 Обс.
<1%
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, with a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Iván Cepeda of the Historic Pact maintains a consistent polling lead near 40 percent in the final weeks before Colombia’s May 31 first round, while right-wing support remains divided between Abelardo de la Espriella and Paloma Valencia at roughly 20 percent each. This fragmentation keeps the projected margin between first and second place inside the 10-15 point band favored by traders, as late consolidation among opposition voters or shifts in turnout could compress or widen the gap. Security concerns and policy continuity with the outgoing Petro administration continue to shape voter preferences across urban and rural blocs, with no candidate positioned for an outright majority. The market’s pricing reflects uncertainty over whether the right can narrow the deficit enough to force a tighter outcome or whether Cepeda’s base will deliver the steadier spread reflected in recent surveys.
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, with a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Ринок відкрито: Apr 21, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Обсяг
$14,918Дата завершення
May 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 21, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, with a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Iván Cepeda of the Historic Pact maintains a consistent polling lead near 40 percent in the final weeks before Colombia’s May 31 first round, while right-wing support remains divided between Abelardo de la Espriella and Paloma Valencia at roughly 20 percent each. This fragmentation keeps the projected margin between first and second place inside the 10-15 point band favored by traders, as late consolidation among opposition voters or shifts in turnout could compress or widen the gap. Security concerns and policy continuity with the outgoing Petro administration continue to shape voter preferences across urban and rural blocs, with no candidate positioned for an outright majority. The market’s pricing reflects uncertainty over whether the right can narrow the deficit enough to force a tighter outcome or whether Cepeda’s base will deliver the steadier spread reflected in recent surveys.
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, with a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Обсяг
$14,918Дата завершення
May 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 21, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Iván Cepeda of the Historic Pact maintains a consistent polling lead near 40 percent in the final weeks before Colombia’s May 31 first round, while right-wing support remains divided between Abelardo de la Espriella and Paloma Valencia at roughly 20 percent each. This fragmentation keeps the projected margin between first and second place inside the 10-15 point band favored by traders, as late consolidation among opposition voters or shifts in turnout could compress or widen the gap. Security concerns and policy continuity with the outgoing Petro administration continue to shape voter preferences across urban and rural blocs, with no candidate positioned for an outright majority. The market’s pricing reflects uncertainty over whether the right can narrow the deficit enough to force a tighter outcome or whether Cepeda’s base will deliver the steadier spread reflected in recent surveys.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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