Демократичний кандидат у президенти 2028 року

Демократичний кандидат у президенти 2028 року — Обговорення

siick · 2025-07-11T18:41:17.827Z

Обговорення Демократичний кандидат у президенти 2028 року. Трейдери діляться аналізом та прогнозами на Polymarket.

Гевін Ньюсом 18.3%

Джон Оссофф 16.4%

Александрія Окасіо-Кортес 15.0%

Камала Гарріс 7.6%

$1,252,899,820 Обс.

Nov 7, 2028

Заробляйте 3.25%

Гевін Ньюсом

$26,648,613 Обс.

18%

Джон Оссофф

$12,508,468 Обс.

16%

Александрія Окасіо-Кортес

$14,215,852 Обс.

15%

Камала Гарріс

$12,858,348 Обс.

Піт Буттиджич

$11,756,387 Обс.

Джош Шапіро

$9,447,058 Обс.

Марк Келлі

$17,144,208 Обс.

Енді Бешир

$12,867,917 Обс.

Рам Емануель

$14,385,478 Обс.

Ро Кханна

$11,110,336 Обс.

Джон Стюарт

$24,577,798 Обс.

Джеймс Таларіко

$10,318,341 Обс.

Вез Мур

$17,447,620 Обс.

Ґретчен Вітмер

$11,858,540 Обс.

Дж.Б. Пріцкер

$15,330,411 Обс.

Двейн «Скеля» Джонсон

$12,343,370 Обс.

Мішель Обама

$26,033,994 Обс.

Челсі Клінтон

$50,144,038 Обс.

Рафаель Уорнок

$31,947,885 Обс.

Берні Сандерс

$52,629,036 Обс.

Корі Букер

$25,478,566 Обс.

Марк Кьюбан

$22,752,978 Обс.

Гантер Байден

$44,023,586 Обс.

Опра Вінфрі

$54,190,498 Обс.

<1%

Кріс Мерфі

$17,053,984 Обс.

<1%

Рой Купер

$31,347,140 Обс.

<1%

Стівен А. Сміт

$21,492,771 Обс.

<1%

Джордж Клуні

$42,897,448 Обс.

<1%

Зохран Мамдані

$38,589,475 Обс.

<1%

Джон Феттерман

$24,354,941 Обс.

<1%

Рубен Гальєго

$8,305,611 Обс.

<1%

Жасмін Крокетт

$36,262,430 Обс.

<1%

Elissa Slotkin

$860,013 Обс.

<1%

Джина Реймондо

$35,568,428 Обс.

<1%

Барак Обама

$33,849,937 Обс.

<1%

Тім Вальц

$42,725,632 Обс.

<1%

Ліз Чейні

$38,343,040 Обс.

<1%

Бето О’Рурк

$42,665,377 Обс.

<1%

Ендрю Ян

$48,419,965 Обс.

<1%

Кім Кардаш'ян

$42,295,225 Обс.

<1%

Джаред Поліс

$27,173,504 Обс.

<1%

Леброн Джеймс

$43,815,357 Обс.

<1%

MrBeast

$40,313,270 Обс.

<1%

Graham Platner

$7,961,272 Обс.

<1%

Гілларі Клінтон

$43,542,280 Обс.

<1%

Abigail Spanberger

$181,423 Обс.

<1%

Adam Schiff

$110,538 Обс.

<1%

Josh Stein

$197,650 Обс.

<1%

Alex Padilla

$180,517 Обс.

<1%

Філ Мерфі

$42,183,129 Обс.

<1%

Hakeem Jeffries

$190,136 Обс.

<1%

Гевін Ньюсом 18.3%

Джон Оссофф 16.4%

Александрія Окасіо-Кортес 15.0%

Камала Гарріс 7.6%

$1,252,899,820 Обс.

Nov 7, 2028

Заробляйте 3.25%

Гевін Ньюсом

$26,648,613 Обс.

18%

Джон Оссофф

$12,508,468 Обс.

16%

Александрія Окасіо-Кортес

$14,215,852 Обс.

15%

Камала Гарріс

$12,858,348 Обс.

Піт Буттиджич

$11,756,387 Обс.

Джош Шапіро

$9,447,058 Обс.

Марк Келлі

$17,144,208 Обс.

Енді Бешир

$12,867,917 Обс.

Рам Емануель

$14,385,478 Обс.

Ро Кханна

$11,110,336 Обс.

Джон Стюарт

$24,577,798 Обс.

Джеймс Таларіко

$10,318,341 Обс.

Вез Мур

$17,447,620 Обс.

Ґретчен Вітмер

$11,858,540 Обс.

Дж.Б. Пріцкер

$15,330,411 Обс.

Двейн «Скеля» Джонсон

$12,343,370 Обс.

Мішель Обама

$26,033,994 Обс.

Челсі Клінтон

$50,144,038 Обс.

Рафаель Уорнок

$31,947,885 Обс.

Берні Сандерс

$52,629,036 Обс.

Корі Букер

$25,478,566 Обс.

Марк Кьюбан

$22,752,978 Обс.

Гантер Байден

$44,023,586 Обс.

Опра Вінфрі

$54,190,498 Обс.

<1%

Кріс Мерфі

$17,053,984 Обс.

<1%

Рой Купер

$31,347,140 Обс.

<1%

Стівен А. Сміт

$21,492,771 Обс.

<1%

Джордж Клуні

$42,897,448 Обс.

<1%

Зохран Мамдані

$38,589,475 Обс.

<1%

Джон Феттерман

$24,354,941 Обс.

<1%

Рубен Гальєго

$8,305,611 Обс.

<1%

Жасмін Крокетт

$36,262,430 Обс.

<1%

Elissa Slotkin

$860,013 Обс.

<1%

Джина Реймондо

$35,568,428 Обс.

<1%

Барак Обама

$33,849,937 Обс.

<1%

Тім Вальц

$42,725,632 Обс.

<1%

Ліз Чейні

$38,343,040 Обс.

<1%

Бето О’Рурк

$42,665,377 Обс.

<1%

Ендрю Ян

$48,419,965 Обс.

<1%

Кім Кардаш'ян

$42,295,225 Обс.

<1%

Джаред Поліс

$27,173,504 Обс.

<1%

Леброн Джеймс

$43,815,357 Обс.

<1%

MrBeast

$40,313,270 Обс.

<1%

Graham Platner

$7,961,272 Обс.

<1%

Гілларі Клінтон

$43,542,280 Обс.

<1%

Abigail Spanberger

$181,423 Обс.

<1%

Adam Schiff

$110,538 Обс.

<1%

Josh Stein

$197,650 Обс.

<1%

Alex Padilla

$180,517 Обс.

<1%

Філ Мерфі

$42,183,129 Обс.

<1%

Hakeem Jeffries

$190,136 Обс.

<1%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

The 2028 Democratic presidential nomination remains a tightly contested open field more than two years before primaries, with no candidates formally declared and trader consensus reflecting high uncertainty over party direction, 2026 midterm outcomes, and primary calendar shifts favoring diverse states. Gavin Newsom’s early edge has narrowed as Jon Ossoff and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez gain ground in prediction markets and select state polls, driven by their appeal among different ideological lanes and strong performances in Georgia and New York. National polling averages show volatility, with Kamala Harris, Pete Buttigieg, and others trading places depending on the survey, underscoring name recognition versus emerging challengers. Developments such as fundraising activity, regional endorsements, and positioning on economic or foreign policy issues could create separation, while the absence of dominant early polling keeps probabilities compressed among the top contenders.

Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено 8 серп. 2026 р., 07:01 UTC

Aug 4 2026

Kamala Harris confirms she is 'thinking about' 2028 presidential run

Kamala Harris rises to 9%2%

Former Vice President Kamala Harris publicly acknowledged she is considering a 2028 presidential campaign, marking her most open remarks about her political future and maintaining her position as a top contender.

Aug 4 2026

Jon Ossoff's market price rises amid 2026 reelection campaign momentum

Jon Ossoff rises to 15%3%

Jon Ossoff's market price increased in August 2026 reflecting growing confidence in his 2026 Senate reelection prospects and potential 2028 presidential candidacy.

Aug 1 2026

Kamala Harris calls for major reforms including Supreme Court expansion ahead of possible 2028 run

Kamala Harris dips to 8%1%

Harris publicly endorsed progressive policies such as expanding the Supreme Court and abolishing the Electoral College, signaling a shift to a more left-leaning platform as she weighs a 2028 presidential campaign. Despite this, her market odds remained relatively flat.

Jul 19 2026

Emerson poll shows Jon Ossoff ties Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez with 13% support

Jon Ossoff rises to 12%2%

The Emerson poll conducted July 19-20 showed Jon Ossoff and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez tied at 13% support for the 2028 Democratic nomination, reflecting Ossoff's rising profile despite his denials of running. This poll coincided with Ossoff's market price rising from 10% to 12% and later to 16%.

Jul 15 2026

Jon Ossoff aggressively attacks Trump during Senate Intelligence Committee hearing

Jon Ossoff rises to 9%2%

Ossoff questioned Trump's nominee for national intelligence director about the 2020 election results, highlighting Trump's refusal to concede and labeling his administration corrupt. This high-profile confrontation boosted Ossoff's visibility as a leading anti-Trump Democrat and increased his 2028 nomination odds.

Jul 15 2026

Senator Jon Ossoff aggressively questions Trump nominee at Senate hearing, highlighting opposition to Trump

Jon Ossoff rises to 12%3%

On July 15, 2026, Ossoff's pointed questioning of Jay Clayton, Trump's nominee for national intelligence director, and his vocal opposition to Trump administration policies raised his national profile and contributed to a significant rise in his market odds.

Jun 29 2026

Jon Ossoff's viral campaign rallies boost 2028 presidential speculation

Jon Ossoff rises to 10%4%

Senator Jon Ossoff's campaign rallies in Georgia went viral, showcasing his sharp criticism of Donald Trump and resonating with Democratic voters. Despite his repeated denials of interest in running for president, his rising profile and fundraising success increased his market odds from 6% to 10%.

Jun 21 2026

Gavin Newsom aligns closely with Joe Biden ahead of 2028 presidential cycle

Gavin Newsom dips to 23%1%

Axios reported that Gavin Newsom has been cultivating closer ties with Joe Biden and his political circle, emphasizing Biden's legislative record to secure Democratic goodwill. This strategic positioning reinforced Newsom's frontrunner status, maintaining his market lead despite a slight price dip.

Jun 17 2026

Federal probe into California Gov. Gavin Newsom raises doubts about 2028 run

Gavin Newsom drops to 20%7%

The Washington Post reported that Newsom’s office confirmed a federal investigation into his administration on June 17. The announcement sparked speculation that legal trouble could derail a 2028 presidential bid, prompting the market’s price for Newsom to fall from a high of 27 % on June 15 to 20 % by July 1.

Jun 17 2026

Gavin Newsom announces federal investigation amid 2028 presidential speculation

Gavin Newsom drops to 20%5%

Newsom publicly revealed that he and his wife were under federal investigation, which introduced uncertainty about his presidential prospects. While some Democrats rallied around him viewing the probe as politically motivated, the market price for his nomination odds declined from 25% to around 20%.

Jun 17 2026

DOJ probe into Gavin Newsom could affect 2028 presidential ambitions

Gavin Newsom drops to 20%5%

A Washington Post report revealed that the DOJ had opened a federal investigation into Governor Gavin Newsom and his wife. The news sparked speculation that the probe could either damage his presidential prospects or rally Democratic voters, prompting a modest but noticeable decline in Newsom’s market price from the mid‑20s to the low‑20 % range by the end of June.

Jun 16 2026

Republican Mike Collins wins Georgia Senate runoff, setting up tough race against Jon Ossoff

Jon Ossoff rises to 9%3%

Mike Collins won the Republican runoff, becoming Jon Ossoff's opponent in the 2026 Senate election. This improved Ossoff's reelection outlook and boosted his 2028 presidential nomination odds, as a strong Senate position is seen as a stepping stone for presidential ambitions.

Jun 15 2026

Gavin Newsom Accuses Trump Administration of Directing Politically Motivated DOJ Investigation Against Him and His Wife

Gavin Newsom dips to 24%1%

California Governor Gavin Newsom released a video claiming that he and his wife are under federal investigation by the Department of Justice, which he argued was a politically motivated attack targeting him as a potential 2028 presidential contender.

Jun 15 2026

Federal investigation announced into Gavin Newsom and his wife

Gavin Newsom dips to 24%3%

California Governor Gavin Newsom publicly disclosed a federal investigation into himself and his wife, which raised concerns about his presidential prospects. While some Democrats might rally around him if the probe is seen as politically motivated, the announcement caused a decline in his market odds.

Jun 15 2026

Gavin Newsom announces federal DOJ investigation amid 2028 presidential speculation

Gavin Newsom dips to 21%4%

California Governor Gavin Newsom publicly revealed that he and his wife are under investigation by the Department of Justice, which he claims is politically motivated by President Donald Trump due to his potential 2028 presidential run. This announcement led to a decline in Newsom's market price from the mid-20s to the low 20% range, reflecting uncertainty about his candidacy.

Jun 8 2026

The New York Times publishes opinion piece highlighting Jon Ossoff as ideal 2028 candidate

Jon Ossoff rises to 9%2%

An influential New York Times opinion article titled "Why Everyone Wants Jon Ossoff to Run for President" was published, boosting Ossoff's profile and market odds from 7% to 9% by June 13. The piece emphasized Ossoff's appeal and potential despite his denials of presidential ambitions, increasing market enthusiasm.

Jun 2 2026

Jon Ossoff pressures Georgia Democratic Party Chair to step down

Jon Ossoff rises to 7%1%

Ossoff exerted influence behind the scenes to oust Nikema Williams as Georgia Democratic Party Chair, citing concerns about her dual roles and leadership effectiveness. This internal party conflict highlighted Ossoff's strategic positioning ahead of his reelection campaign, impacting market sentiment.

Jun 1 2026

Jon Ossoff faces criticism for vote to limit U.S. weapons sales to Israel

Jon Ossoff rises to 7%2%

Following his vote supporting resolutions to restrict arms sales to Israel, Ossoff faced backlash from Jewish leaders and community members in Georgia, including criticism from the Israeli consul general and his childhood synagogue's rabbi. This controversy likely influenced market perceptions, contributing to Ossoff's price increase.

May 31 2026

Mike Collins wins Georgia GOP Senate runoff, setting up high-stakes battle against Jon Ossoff

Jon Ossoff rises to 7%2%

Mike Collins secured the Republican nomination for the 2026 Georgia Senate race, endorsed by Donald Trump, setting up a competitive race against incumbent Democrat Jon Ossoff. This heightened Ossoff's profile and market interest in his potential 2028 presidential run, contributing to his price rise from 5% to 7%.

May 31 2026

Jon Ossoff gains momentum as a 2028 Democratic presidential contender amid Senate reelection campaign

Jon Ossoff rises to 7%2%

Senator Jon Ossoff's rising profile as a young, charismatic leader and his active campaign for Senate reelection in Georgia increased his visibility as a potential 2028 presidential candidate. Media coverage and political commentary boosted market confidence, raising his price from 5% to 7%.

May 28 2026

Emerson College Poll Shows Pete Buttigieg Leading Among Potential 2028 Democratic Candidates

A new Emerson College poll released on May 28, 2026, identified Pete Buttigieg as the top potential contender in a hypothetical 2028 Democratic primary, with 18% support among likely Democratic primary voters. This poll influenced market perceptions but did not significantly affect Jon Ossoff's price.

May 27 2026

Sen. Jon Ossoff and Keisha Lance Bottoms link arms amid crime and law enforcement debates

On May 27, 2026, Jon Ossoff publicly aligned with Keisha Lance Bottoms, a figure criticized for soft-on-crime policies, which drew Republican attacks and highlighted Ossoff's political positioning in Georgia. This association likely contributed to Ossoff's price movements as it affected perceptions of his electability.

May 25 2026

Kamala Harris says she is ‘thinking about’ running in 2028 presidential election

Kamala Harris dips to 6%2%

At the National Action Network convention Harris told Rev. Al Sharpton she was “thinking about” a 2028 run. The remark, covered by CNN, increased speculation about her candidacy and corresponded with a gradual slide in her market price from 8 % to 6 % by the end of June.

May 22 2026

Kamala Harris hints at 2028 presidential run at National Action Network event

Kamala Harris rises to 10%2%

Kamala Harris publicly stated she is "thinking about" running for president again in 2028 during a speech at the National Action Network convention, sparking speculation and debate about her political future. This announcement initially supported her market price but also led to mixed reactions about her viability.

May 19 2026

Newsom unveils $349 billion 2026‑27 California budget and says he’ll weigh a 2028 presidential run

Gavin Newsom rises to 25%1%

Governor Newsom released the 2026‑27 state budget revision, a $349.4 billion plan that highlighted his progressive agenda and reiterated his intent to consider a 2028 presidential bid after the midterms. The high‑visibility budget drew national media coverage and lifted his market price from 24 % to 25 % on May 19, then kept it near that level through early June.

Apr 29 2026

Tom Steyer’s massive ad spend fails to boost his poll numbers

Gavin Newsom rises to 33%3%

Despite spending over $115 million on advertising in the California governor race, Steyer’s polling remained flat, signaling limited impact on national perception of Democratic leaders and contributing to a modest rise in Newsom’s price from 30% to 33% as he emerged as the clear front‑runner.

Feb 4 2026

Newsom’s budget shortfall deepens, prompting cuts to state programs

Gavin Newsom drops to 30%5%

Further analysis revealed the deficit could grow to $22 billion the following year, intensifying concerns over Newsom’s ability to manage the state’s finances. The news coincided with a 5‑point drop in Newsom’s price from 35% to 30% and reinforced the downward trend for other candidates.

Jan 28 2026

Gavin Newsom faces criticism for vetoing menopause bill amid 2028 presidential speculation

Gavin Newsom jumps to 24%6%

Actress Halle Berry publicly criticized Governor Gavin Newsom for vetoing a menopause-related bill in California, framing it as devaluing women. This event brought attention to Newsom's policy decisions and affected his public image during speculation about his 2028 presidential run, influencing his market price.

Jan 18 2026

Josh Shapiro alleges Kamala Harris' team questioned him about Israeli ties during 2024 vetting

Josh Shapiro plunges to 5%45%

In his memoir, Josh Shapiro revealed that Kamala Harris' vetting team asked if he had ever been an Israeli agent, a question he found offensive. This disclosure highlighted intra-party tensions and affected perceptions of Shapiro's candidacy, contributing to a decline in his market odds.

Jan 15 2026

San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan enters California governor race, criticizes Newsom

Gavin Newsom drops to 28%7%

Matt Mahan, a moderate Democrat and frequent Newsom critic, announced his candidacy for California governor, challenging Newsom's legacy and potentially weakening Newsom's political standing ahead of a possible 2028 presidential run. This likely contributed to Newsom's market price decline in early 2026.

Jan 15 2026

Newsom faces $2.9 billion budget deficit in his last year as governor

Gavin Newsom rises to 35%1%

Newsom’s office disclosed a $2.9 billion budget shortfall for his final year, underscoring the fiscal challenges he would leave behind. The news dampened enthusiasm for his possible presidential run, pulling his market price down from 34 % on 2026‑01‑01 to 35 % on 2026‑01‑16 (a small rebound after the dip).

Jan 14 2026

Josh Shapiro sets Pennsylvania fundraising record with $30 million for reelection bid

Josh Shapiro plunges to 5%45%

Josh Shapiro announced a record-breaking $30 million campaign fund for his 2026 reelection, boosting his political profile and signaling strong support within the Democratic Party. This fundraising success likely contributed to market interest in his potential 2028 presidential prospects.

Jan 8 2026

Gavin Newsom proposes shifting California education governance to increase governor's power

Gavin Newsom dips to 33%2%

Newsom proposed reforms to reduce the elected State Superintendent's powers and increase the governor-appointed State Board of Education's control, aiming to streamline education governance. This policy move was part of his final year agenda and may have influenced market perceptions of his leadership and presidential viability.

Dec 21 2025

CNN poll finds Newsom only 6% of Democratic primary support, others near 1‑3%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez plunges to 9%41%

A CNN poll released on 21 Dec 2025 showed Gavin Newsom leading the Democratic field at only 6 % while Alexandria Ocasio‑Cortez, Kamala Harris, Jon Ossoff, Josh Shapiro, Pete Buttigieg, Andy Beshear and Mark Kelly each received 1‑3 % support. The market reacted by sharply cutting the odds for all eight candidates, especially the non‑Newsom names, whose prices fell toward single‑digit levels.

Dec 17 2025

Jon Ossoff reports $25 million cash on hand entering 2026 Senate reelection campaign

Jon Ossoff plunges to 4%46%

Senator Jon Ossoff announced a robust war chest of over $25 million as he prepared for a tough 2026 reelection in Georgia. This fundraising milestone was significant but also indicated his focus on Senate reelection rather than a presidential bid, leading to a sharp market price decline.

Dec 6 2025

Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro hints at 2028 presidential ambitions in re‑election kickoff

Josh Shapiro dips to 5%1%

Shapiro, while launching his 2026 re‑election campaign, hinted at a “2028 conversation,” saying he wanted to be part of the party’s future direction. The comment generated modest optimism among traders, lifting his price from 6 % on Aug 3 2025 to 6 % (steady) and later to 5 % on May 8 2026 after a series of state‑level wins.

Nov 15 2025

Politico: Gavin Newsom emerges as 2028 Democratic front‑runner, Harris trails

Kamala Harris plunges to 6%33%

Politico published an analysis naming Newsom the 2028 Democratic front‑runner and noting Harris lagging behind with just 9 % support. The story coincided with Harris’s mid‑term fundraising slump and pushed her market price from 39 % on Jul 11 2025 down to 6 % on Aug 2 2025.

Nov 10 2025

Eric Swalwell faces sexual assault allegations, suspends California governor campaign

Gavin Newsom rises to 38%1%

Swalwell's campaign collapsed rapidly after sexual assault allegations surfaced, leading to his suspension from the governor's race and resignation plans from Congress. This event removed a key Democratic contender, impacting the dynamics of the race and boosting other candidates' prospects, including Newsom's perceived viability.

Nov 5 2025

Gov. Gavin Newsom to return to South Carolina for early‑state campaign stop

Gavin Newsom jumps to 38%14%

The Post and Courier announced Newsom’s second South Carolina visit on 23 Feb 2026, a clear signal of a national‑stage campaign push. Traders lifted Newsom’s price from the low‑20s to a peak of 38 % in early January 2026 before the visit, reflecting expectations of a stronger national profile.

Nov 1 2025

Crowded California governor field fuels fears of Democratic vote split

Analysts warned that the large number of Democratic candidates for California governor could dilute support for any single contender, prompting speculation that the party’s national prospects were weakening. This narrative contributed to a sharp drop in the market prices of all listed candidates, with Kamala Harris falling from 9% to 4% and others similarly declining.

Oct 26 2025

California Gov. Gavin Newsom says he is weighing a 2028 presidential bid

Gavin Newsom jumps to 24%6%

Newsom told CBS Sunday Morning he was "considering" a 2028 presidential run and would decide after the 2026 midterms. The comment raised his visibility and helped lift his market price from the low‑30s to a peak of 51 % on 2025‑07‑18 before it settled back to the mid‑20s by May 2026.

Oct 25 2025

‘I am not done’ – Kamala Harris tells BBC she may run for president again

Kamala Harris plunges to 5%34%

In a Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg interview, former Vice‑President Harris said “I’m not done” and hinted she may run again in 2028. The comments sparked a sharp market correction for all front‑runners, driving prices from the high‑50s in mid‑July to single‑digit levels by early August as traders reassessed her viability.

Oct 15 2025

California faces $2.9 billion budget deficit in Newsom’s final year

Gavin Newsom dips to 35%1%

The state’s budget office reported a $2.9 billion shortfall for the fiscal year, highlighting fiscal challenges for Newsom’s administration. The deficit raised doubts about his fiscal stewardship, pulling Newsom’s price down from 36% to 35% and further dampening enthusiasm for other Democratic hopefuls.

Oct 15 2025

Halle Berry slams Gov. Newsom’s menopause‑care veto

Gavin Newsom drops to 28%7%

Governor Newsom vetoed AB 432, a bill expanding insurance coverage for menopause care. Actress Halle Berry publicly criticized the veto at the New York Times DealBook Summit, calling Newsom unfit for higher office. The controversy coincided with a sharp decline in Newsom’s market price from 35 % on 2025‑09‑02 to 28 % on 2025‑02‑17, reflecting voter backlash over the veto.

Oct 2 2025

Newsom pitches California as a national model in final State of the State speech

Gavin Newsom jumps to 38%6%

Newsom delivered his final State of the State address, positioning California as a “bulwark” against Trump and highlighting his own record. The high‑profile speech sparked renewed media attention and pushed his market price up from 32 % on 2025‑09‑01 to a peak of 38 % on 2025‑10‑10.

Sep 19 2025

AOC weighs 2028 Senate or presidential run

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez plunges to 9%41%

Axios reported that AOC was weighing a 2028 Senate or presidential run and had hired senior Sanders advisors. The speculation sent her price from the high‑50s in early July down to the low‑10s by late September as market participants reassessed the viability of a congressional member’s national bid.

Sep 18 2025

Supreme Court lets new California Democratic‑friendly map stand

Gavin Newsom rises to 36%1%

The Supreme Court’s emergency order allowing California’s new, Democratic‑friendly congressional map was hailed by Newsom as a win against the Trump administration, reinforcing his image as a party protector and lifting his market price from 35 % on 2025‑09‑16 to 36 % on 2025‑09‑18.

Sep 2 2025

Sanders pushes billionaire tax; Newsom opposes

Gavin Newsom dips to 33%4%

Senator Bernie Sanders’ campaign for a new billionaire wealth tax in California placed Newsom in direct opposition, creating intra‑party tension. The public debate over the tax coincided with Newsom’s price slipping from 37 % (late August) to 33 % by early February, reflecting concerns about his fiscal stance.

Aug 30 2025

Gov. Newsom vetoes menopause‑care bill, drawing criticism from celebrities

Gavin Newsom dips to 36%2%

Newsom vetoed AB 432, a bill expanding insurance coverage for menopause care. Actress Halle Berry publicly condemned the veto, portraying Newsom as out‑of‑touch on women’s health, which contributed to a price dip from 38% to 36% for Newsom and a broader decline for other candidates as the focus shifted to his policy decisions.

Aug 22 2025

Gavin Newsom launches aggressive social media campaign mocking President Trump

Gavin Newsom surges to 34%16%

California Governor Gavin Newsom began a high-profile trolling campaign against President Trump, using all-caps posts and memes mimicking Trump's style. This boosted Newsom's national profile and energized Democratic supporters, contributing to a rise in his market odds for the 2028 nomination.

Aug 4 2025

Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear tours South Carolina, touts bipartisan appeal

Andy Beshear dips to 3%4%

A Kentucky‑focused op‑ed in the Lexington Herald highlighted Beshear’s recent visit to South Carolina and his appeal to both Democrats and independents, raising his national profile. The coverage coincided with a price rise from 7 % on Aug 3 2025 to 7 % (stable) and later a slight climb to 3 % on May 8 2026 as his name entered more national conversations.

Aug 3 2025

Swalwell suspends California governor bid after sexual‑assault allegations surface

Gavin Newsom jumps to 32%12%

Sexual‑assault allegations against Rep. Eric Swalwell were reported, prompting his swift withdrawal from the California governor’s race. The collapse of a leading contender shifted attention toward other candidates, notably reducing the perceived competition for Newsom and nudging his price upward from 20 % on 2025‑08‑02 to 32 % on 2025‑09‑01.

Aug 3 2025

Morning Consult poll shows AOC’s support plunges to low teens

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez plunges to 16%34%

A poll released by Morning Consult (reported by Politico) showed Ocasio‑Cortez dropping from a double‑digit lead among progressive voters to 13 % overall support. The sharp decline coincided with a 40‑point swing in the market, pulling her price from 50 % to 16 % within three days.

Jul 31 2025

Fact‑check: Jon Stewart is not a serious 2028 Democratic nominee

Jon Stewart plunges to 3%47%

A satirical piece on a fringe website claimed Jon Stewart was the “2028 Democratic nominee,” which was quickly debunked by mainstream outlets. The absurd claim caused a brief spike in curiosity trading, pushing his price from 50 % to 3 % on Aug 3 2025, after which the market corrected to 1 % by Sep 3 2025.

Jul 28 2025

Pete Buttigieg signals 2028 presidential ambitions in NPR interview

Pete Buttigieg plunges to 12%38%

In a July 28, 2025 NPR interview, Pete Buttigieg discussed the future of the Democratic Party and hinted at a possible 2028 presidential run, avoiding a direct confirmation but fueling speculation. This contributed to his initial market price but was followed by declines as doubts about his viability grew.

Jul 21 2025

Kamala Harris becomes presumptive Democratic presidential nominee after Biden withdraws

Kamala Harris jumps to 51%12%

Following President Joe Biden's withdrawal from the 2024 race, Kamala Harris quickly secured the Democratic nomination, becoming the first Black woman and first Asian American to lead a major party's presidential ticket. This historic event significantly boosted her market probability as the likely nominee.

Jul 21 2025

Joe Biden withdraws from 2024 race, endorses Kamala Harris as Democratic nominee

Kamala Harris jumps to 51%12%

Biden's withdrawal and endorsement rapidly boosted Kamala Harris's delegate support, leading to her securing the Democratic nomination for 2024. This event marked Harris's official rise as the party's presidential candidate, impacting her 2028 nomination odds positively initially.

Jul 20 2025

Jon Ossoff surges in 2028 Democratic nomination odds after sharp criticism of Trump

Jon Ossoff plunges to 8%42%

Senator Jon Ossoff's odds rose significantly in prediction markets following a rally in Augusta, Georgia, where he criticized President Trump and his administration for corruption and policy failures. This increased his visibility and positioned him as a top contender behind Gavin Newsom and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.

Jul 18 2025

Gov. Newsom hints at 2028 presidential run, market spikes

Gavin Newsom jumps to 18%6%

Newsom’s early July remarks that he was “considering a 2028 White House run” sparked a surge in speculation about his presidential ambitions, driving the market price for all listed candidates up to a peak of 51 % on 2025‑07‑18. The optimistic surge was later confined to Newsom as his name steadied at 18 % before climbing again.

Jul 16 2025

Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear emerges as potential 2028 presidential candidate

Andy Beshear plunges to 7%43%

Beshear gained attention as a Democratic governor in a red state with a strong record of governance and bipartisan appeal, sparking speculation about a presidential run. His pragmatic leadership and popularity in Kentucky positioned him as a possible nominee, reflected in early market interest.

Jul 15 2025

Bernie Sanders backs California billionaire wealth tax, clashes with Gov. Newsom

Gavin Newsom rises to 20%2%

Sen. Bernie Sanders visited Los Angeles to promote a proposed state wealth tax, directly opposing Gov. Gavin Newsom. The high‑profile showdown raised Newsom’s national profile and boosted his perceived viability as a 2028 presidential candidate, lifting his market price from 18% to 20%.

Jul 15 2025

Trump calls Gov. Gavin Newsom “stupid” over dyslexia in Cabinet meeting

Gavin Newsom rises to 20%2%

President Trump publicly mocked Gov. Gavin Newsom’s dyslexia in a Cabinet meeting, calling him “stupid” and “low‑IQ.” The attack raised Newsom’s national profile and boosted speculation that he could become the 2028 Democratic nominee, lifting the Newsom market price from 18 % on 2025‑07‑11 to 20 % by 2025‑08‑02.

Jul 12 2025

Jon Ossoff holds major campaign rally in Savannah, GA

Jon Ossoff plunges to 4%46%

Senator Jon Ossoff held a large rally in Savannah, attacking Republican policies and President Trump, energizing his base and demonstrating strong campaign momentum ahead of his 2026 Senate re-election. This event coincided with a sharp drop in his market price from 50% to 4% as the market adjusted to his focus on Senate rather than presidential ambitions.

Jul 11 2025

Eric Swalwell announces bid for California governor

Gavin Newsom rises to 20%2%

Rep. Eric Swalwell launched his campaign for California governor, positioning himself as a fighter against Trump and highlighting his desire to help Californians prosper. This announcement initially boosted his profile and affected perceptions of Gavin Newsom's political future, as Newsom is term-limited and a potential 2028 presidential candidate.

Jul 11 2025

Pete Buttigieg announces he will not run for Michigan Senate in 2026, preserving 2028 presidential option

Pete Buttigieg plunges to 12%38%

On July 11, 2025, Pete Buttigieg announced he would not run for Michigan's open Senate seat in 2026, signaling his intention to keep the door open for a 2028 presidential run. This announcement caused a sharp drop in his market price as it clarified his immediate political plans.

Jul 11 2025

Gavin Newsom faces $2.9 billion California budget deficit in final gubernatorial year

Gavin Newsom jumps to 25%7%

Newsom's announcement of a significant budget shortfall highlighted fiscal challenges in California, impacting perceptions of his leadership and presidential viability. Despite the deficit, Newsom's efforts to maintain progressive policies kept his market price relatively stable and rising.

Jul 11 2025

Democratic insiders push for straight white male nominee to counter Trump election trauma

Kamala Harris plunges to 6%33%

Party strategists privately advocated for a demographic shift favoring a straight, white Christian male nominee for 2028, reflecting internal concerns about electability after recent losses, which negatively impacted candidates outside this profile, including Kamala Harris and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.

Aug 4 2026

Kamala Harris confirms she is 'thinking about' 2028 presidential run

Kamala Harris rises to 9%2%

Aug 4 2026

Jon Ossoff's market price rises amid 2026 reelection campaign momentum

Jon Ossoff rises to 15%3%

Jon Ossoff's market price increased in August 2026 reflecting growing confidence in his 2026 Senate reelection prospects and potential 2028 presidential candidacy.

Aug 1 2026

Kamala Harris calls for major reforms including Supreme Court expansion ahead of possible 2028 run

Kamala Harris dips to 8%1%

Jul 19 2026

Emerson poll shows Jon Ossoff ties Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez with 13% support

Jon Ossoff rises to 12%2%

Jul 15 2026

Jon Ossoff aggressively attacks Trump during Senate Intelligence Committee hearing

Jon Ossoff rises to 9%2%

Jul 15 2026

Senator Jon Ossoff aggressively questions Trump nominee at Senate hearing, highlighting opposition to Trump

Jon Ossoff rises to 12%3%

Jun 29 2026

Jon Ossoff's viral campaign rallies boost 2028 presidential speculation

Jon Ossoff rises to 10%4%

Jun 21 2026

Gavin Newsom aligns closely with Joe Biden ahead of 2028 presidential cycle

Gavin Newsom dips to 23%1%

Jun 17 2026

Federal probe into California Gov. Gavin Newsom raises doubts about 2028 run

Gavin Newsom drops to 20%7%

Jun 17 2026

Gavin Newsom announces federal investigation amid 2028 presidential speculation

Gavin Newsom drops to 20%5%

Jun 17 2026

DOJ probe into Gavin Newsom could affect 2028 presidential ambitions

Gavin Newsom drops to 20%5%

Jun 16 2026

Republican Mike Collins wins Georgia Senate runoff, setting up tough race against Jon Ossoff

Jon Ossoff rises to 9%3%

Jun 15 2026

Gavin Newsom Accuses Trump Administration of Directing Politically Motivated DOJ Investigation Against Him and His Wife

Gavin Newsom dips to 24%1%

Jun 15 2026

Federal investigation announced into Gavin Newsom and his wife

Gavin Newsom dips to 24%3%

Jun 15 2026

Gavin Newsom announces federal DOJ investigation amid 2028 presidential speculation

Gavin Newsom dips to 21%4%

Jun 8 2026

The New York Times publishes opinion piece highlighting Jon Ossoff as ideal 2028 candidate

Jon Ossoff rises to 9%2%

Jun 2 2026

Jon Ossoff pressures Georgia Democratic Party Chair to step down

Jon Ossoff rises to 7%1%

Jun 1 2026

Jon Ossoff faces criticism for vote to limit U.S. weapons sales to Israel

Jon Ossoff rises to 7%2%

May 31 2026

Mike Collins wins Georgia GOP Senate runoff, setting up high-stakes battle against Jon Ossoff

Jon Ossoff rises to 7%2%

May 31 2026

Jon Ossoff gains momentum as a 2028 Democratic presidential contender amid Senate reelection campaign

Jon Ossoff rises to 7%2%

May 28 2026

Emerson College Poll Shows Pete Buttigieg Leading Among Potential 2028 Democratic Candidates

May 27 2026

Sen. Jon Ossoff and Keisha Lance Bottoms link arms amid crime and law enforcement debates

May 25 2026

Kamala Harris says she is ‘thinking about’ running in 2028 presidential election

Kamala Harris dips to 6%2%

May 22 2026

Kamala Harris hints at 2028 presidential run at National Action Network event

Kamala Harris rises to 10%2%

May 19 2026

Newsom unveils $349 billion 2026‑27 California budget and says he’ll weigh a 2028 presidential run

Gavin Newsom rises to 25%1%

Apr 29 2026

Tom Steyer’s massive ad spend fails to boost his poll numbers

Gavin Newsom rises to 33%3%

Feb 4 2026

Newsom’s budget shortfall deepens, prompting cuts to state programs

Gavin Newsom drops to 30%5%

Jan 28 2026

Gavin Newsom faces criticism for vetoing menopause bill amid 2028 presidential speculation

Gavin Newsom jumps to 24%6%

Jan 18 2026

Josh Shapiro alleges Kamala Harris' team questioned him about Israeli ties during 2024 vetting

Josh Shapiro plunges to 5%45%

Jan 15 2026

San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan enters California governor race, criticizes Newsom

Gavin Newsom drops to 28%7%

Jan 15 2026

Newsom faces $2.9 billion budget deficit in his last year as governor

Gavin Newsom rises to 35%1%

Jan 14 2026

Josh Shapiro sets Pennsylvania fundraising record with $30 million for reelection bid

Josh Shapiro plunges to 5%45%

Jan 8 2026

Gavin Newsom proposes shifting California education governance to increase governor's power

Gavin Newsom dips to 33%2%

Dec 21 2025

CNN poll finds Newsom only 6% of Democratic primary support, others near 1‑3%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez plunges to 9%41%

Dec 17 2025

Jon Ossoff reports $25 million cash on hand entering 2026 Senate reelection campaign

Jon Ossoff plunges to 4%46%

Dec 6 2025

Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro hints at 2028 presidential ambitions in re‑election kickoff

Josh Shapiro dips to 5%1%

Nov 15 2025

Politico: Gavin Newsom emerges as 2028 Democratic front‑runner, Harris trails

Kamala Harris plunges to 6%33%

Nov 10 2025

Eric Swalwell faces sexual assault allegations, suspends California governor campaign

Gavin Newsom rises to 38%1%

Nov 5 2025

Gov. Gavin Newsom to return to South Carolina for early‑state campaign stop

Gavin Newsom jumps to 38%14%

Nov 1 2025

Crowded California governor field fuels fears of Democratic vote split

Oct 26 2025

California Gov. Gavin Newsom says he is weighing a 2028 presidential bid

Gavin Newsom jumps to 24%6%

Oct 25 2025

‘I am not done’ – Kamala Harris tells BBC she may run for president again

Kamala Harris plunges to 5%34%

Oct 15 2025

California faces $2.9 billion budget deficit in Newsom’s final year

Gavin Newsom dips to 35%1%

Oct 15 2025

Halle Berry slams Gov. Newsom’s menopause‑care veto

Gavin Newsom drops to 28%7%

Oct 2 2025

Newsom pitches California as a national model in final State of the State speech

Gavin Newsom jumps to 38%6%

Sep 19 2025

AOC weighs 2028 Senate or presidential run

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez plunges to 9%41%

Sep 18 2025

Supreme Court lets new California Democratic‑friendly map stand

Gavin Newsom rises to 36%1%

Sep 2 2025

Sanders pushes billionaire tax; Newsom opposes

Gavin Newsom dips to 33%4%

Aug 30 2025

Gov. Newsom vetoes menopause‑care bill, drawing criticism from celebrities

Gavin Newsom dips to 36%2%

Aug 22 2025

Gavin Newsom launches aggressive social media campaign mocking President Trump

Gavin Newsom surges to 34%16%

Aug 4 2025

Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear tours South Carolina, touts bipartisan appeal

Andy Beshear dips to 3%4%

Aug 3 2025

Swalwell suspends California governor bid after sexual‑assault allegations surface

Gavin Newsom jumps to 32%12%

Aug 3 2025

Morning Consult poll shows AOC’s support plunges to low teens

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez plunges to 16%34%

Jul 31 2025

Fact‑check: Jon Stewart is not a serious 2028 Democratic nominee

Jon Stewart plunges to 3%47%

Jul 28 2025

Pete Buttigieg signals 2028 presidential ambitions in NPR interview

Pete Buttigieg plunges to 12%38%

Jul 21 2025

Kamala Harris becomes presumptive Democratic presidential nominee after Biden withdraws

Kamala Harris jumps to 51%12%

Jul 21 2025

Joe Biden withdraws from 2024 race, endorses Kamala Harris as Democratic nominee

Kamala Harris jumps to 51%12%

Jul 20 2025

Jon Ossoff surges in 2028 Democratic nomination odds after sharp criticism of Trump

Jon Ossoff plunges to 8%42%

Jul 18 2025

Gov. Newsom hints at 2028 presidential run, market spikes

Gavin Newsom jumps to 18%6%

Jul 16 2025

Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear emerges as potential 2028 presidential candidate

Andy Beshear plunges to 7%43%

Jul 15 2025

Bernie Sanders backs California billionaire wealth tax, clashes with Gov. Newsom

Gavin Newsom rises to 20%2%

Jul 15 2025

Trump calls Gov. Gavin Newsom “stupid” over dyslexia in Cabinet meeting

Gavin Newsom rises to 20%2%

Jul 12 2025

Jon Ossoff holds major campaign rally in Savannah, GA

Jon Ossoff plunges to 4%46%

Jul 11 2025

Eric Swalwell announces bid for California governor

Gavin Newsom rises to 20%2%

Jul 11 2025

Pete Buttigieg announces he will not run for Michigan Senate in 2026, preserving 2028 presidential option

Pete Buttigieg plunges to 12%38%

Jul 11 2025

Gavin Newsom faces $2.9 billion California budget deficit in final gubernatorial year

Gavin Newsom jumps to 25%7%

Jul 11 2025

Democratic insiders push for straight white male nominee to counter Trump election trauma

Kamala Harris plunges to 6%33%

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«Демократичний кандидат у президенти 2028 року» — це ринок прогнозів на Polymarket з 51+ можливими результатами, де трейдери купують і продають акції залежно від того, що, на їхню думку, станеться. Поточний лідер — «Гевін Ньюсом» з 18%, далі «Джон Оссофф» з 16%. Ціни відображають краудсорсингові ймовірності в реальному часі. Акції правильного результату погашаються по $1 кожна при вирішенні ринку.

Станом на сьогодні, «Демократичний кандидат у президенти 2028 року» згенерував $1.3 billion загального обсягу торгів з моменту запуску ринку Jul 11, 2025. Цей рівень торгової активності відображає сильну залученість спільноти Polymarket та забезпечує, що поточні шанси базуються на глибокому пулі учасників ринку. Ви можете відстежувати рухи цін наживо та торгувати будь-яким результатом прямо на цій сторінці.

Щоб торгувати на «Демократичний кандидат у президенти 2028 року», перегляньте 51+ доступних результатів на цій сторінці. Кожен результат відображає поточну ціну — ймовірність ринку. Оберіть результат, оберіть «Так» чи «Ні», введіть суму та натисніть «Торгувати». Якщо ваш вибір правильний при вирішенні, акції «Так» виплачують $1. Якщо ні — $0. Ви також можете продати акції в будь-який час до вирішення.

Поточний фаворит для «Демократичний кандидат у президенти 2028 року» — «Гевін Ньюсом» з 18%. Наступний — «Джон Оссофф» з 16%. Ці шанси оновлюються в реальному часі, коли трейдери купують і продають акції. Слідкуйте за змінами шансів з появою нової інформації.

Правила вирішення для «Демократичний кандидат у президенти 2028 року» точно визначають, що має статися для оголошення переможця — включаючи офіційні джерела даних. Ви можете переглянути повні критерії вирішення в розділі «Правила» на цій сторінці. Рекомендуємо уважно прочитати правила перед торгівлею.

Так. Вам не потрібно торгувати, щоб бути в курсі. Ця сторінка служить трекером наживо для «Демократичний кандидат у президенти 2028 року». Ймовірності результатів оновлюються в реальному часі з новими угодами. Збережіть сторінку та перегляньте коментарі інших трейдерів.

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На Polymarket ціна кожного результату відображає ймовірність ринку. Ціна 18¢ для «Гевін Ньюсом» на ринку «Демократичний кандидат у президенти 2028 року» означає, що трейдери колективно оцінюють шанс цього результату приблизно в 18%. Якщо ви купите акції «Так» за 18¢ і результат правильний, ви отримаєте $1.00 за акцію — прибуток 82¢ за акцію.

Ринок «Демократичний кандидат у президенти 2028 року» — це довгостроковий прогноз із датою вирішення Nov 6, 2028 — це приблизно більше 2 років. Довгострокові ринки на Polymarket часто бачать значні зміни шансів з розвитком подій.

Ринок «Демократичний кандидат у президенти 2028 року» має активна спільнота з 778 коментарями, де трейдери діляться аналізом, обговорюють результати та останні новини. Прокрутіть вниз до розділу коментарів. Ви також можете фільтрувати за «Топ власники» або переглянути вкладку «Активність» для стрічки угод у реальному часі.

Polymarket — найбільший ринок прогнозів у світі, де ви можете бути в курсі подій та заробляти на знаннях реальних подій. Трейдери купують і продають акції на результати тем від політики та виборів до крипто, фінансів, спорту, технологій та культури, включаючи ринки, як «Демократичний кандидат у президенти 2028 року». Ціни відображають краудсорсингові ймовірності в реальному часі.

Демократичний кандидат у президенти 2028 року

Демократичний кандидат у президенти 2028 року

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Що таке ринок прогнозів «Демократичний кандидат у президенти 2028 року»?

Який обсяг торгівлі згенерував «Демократичний кандидат у президенти 2028 року» на Polymarket?

Як торгувати на «Демократичний кандидат у президенти 2028 року»?

Які поточні шанси для «Демократичний кандидат у президенти 2028 року»?

Як буде вирішено «Демократичний кандидат у президенти 2028 року»?

Чи можу я слідкувати за «Демократичний кандидат у президенти 2028 року» без торгівлі?

Чому шанси Polymarket для «Демократичний кандидат у президенти 2028 року» вважаються надійними?

Як почати торгувати на «Демократичний кандидат у президенти 2028 року»?

Що означає ціна 18¢ для «Гевін Ньюсом»?

Коли закривається ринок «Демократичний кандидат у президенти 2028 року»?

Що кажуть трейдери про «Демократичний кандидат у президенти 2028 року»?

Що таке Polymarket?