The Prosperity Party's entrenched dominance in Ethiopia's federal institutions and its control over the electoral process underpin trader expectations of a sweeping victory in the June 2026 parliamentary elections. Building on its 2021 landslide that secured hundreds of House of Peoples’ Representatives seats, the party benefits from Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's incumbency, revised electoral rules that lowered opposition thresholds, and ongoing security constraints that limit campaigning in regions such as Amhara and Oromia. Fragmented opposition groups, including NaMA and EZEMA, hold minimal current representation and face coalition-building hurdles. While a commanding position appears likely, developments such as intensified regional insurgencies, successful opposition coordination in key constituencies, or shifts in electoral administration could still affect final seat distributions before polls close.