The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.The Federal Open Market Committee's April 29 decision to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.5%-3.75%—a unanimous consensus among traders reflected in Polymarket's 100% implied probability for no change—stems from elevated inflation pressures, with March 2026 CPI rising 3.3% year-over-year amid a 10.9% energy surge driven by Middle East tensions, offsetting modest labor market softening evidenced by 4.3% unemployment and low jobless claims near 219,000. Solid economic expansion further supported holding steady, despite internal dissent including one vote for a 25 bps cut and three opposing an easing bias. Upcoming April CPI on May 12 and the next FOMC meeting could signal shifts if data deviates sharply.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Результат запропоновано: Ні
Оскаржено
Результат запропоновано: Ні
Без оскарження
Кінцевий результат: Ні
The Federal Open Market Committee's April 29 decision to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.5%-3.75%—a unanimous consensus among traders reflected in Polymarket's 100% implied probability for no change—stems from elevated inflation pressures, with March 2026 CPI rising 3.3% year-over-year amid a 10.9% energy surge driven by Middle East tensions, offsetting modest labor market softening evidenced by 4.3% unemployment and low jobless claims near 219,000. Solid economic expansion further supported holding steady, despite internal dissent including one vote for a 25 bps cut and three opposing an easing bias. Upcoming April CPI on May 12 and the next FOMC meeting could signal shifts if data deviates sharply.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Apr 28 2026
Federal Open Market Committee meeting scheduled; market fully
The final event is the FOMC meeting itself, where the market expects the Fed to hold rates steady, resolving the market question.
Apr 22 2026
JPMorgan Global Research and other analysts forecast the Fed will remain on hold at the April 28-29 meeting amid inflation risks and labor market strength
No change rises to 100%1%
Analyst consensus and market positioning ahead of the April meeting solidified the expectation of no rate change.
Mar 18 2026
Fed holds rates steady, projects higher inflation and rules out hikes through year‑end – In the March 2026 statement the Fed kept the policy range unchanged and “no policymakers
25+ bps increase dips to 0%3%
Fed holds rates steady, projects higher inflation and rules out hikes through year‑end – In the March 2026 statement the Fed kept the policy range unchanged and “no policymakers saw rates needing to move higher by the end of this year,” effectively eliminating the 25‑bp hike scenario. This pushed the outcome’s
Mar 18 2026
Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady in March meeting, projecting higher inflation and steady unemployment, signaling a single rate cut later in the year but not imminently
No change jumps to 96%10%
The March FOMC statement confirmed a hold, significantly boosting the "No change" outcome.
Mar 12 2026
Fed officials emphasize data dependency and caution amid resilient economic activity and inflation near target, leading markets to further lower expectations for a 50+ bps cut in
50+ bps decrease dips to 0%2%
Fed officials emphasize data dependency and caution amid resilient economic activity and inflation near target, leading markets to further lower expectations for a 50+ bps cut in April
Feb 14 2026
Market expectations for a December rate cut diminish further as Fed officials express doubts, and economic data shows steady but cautious growth
No change jumps to 86%11%
The fading probability of cuts and steady economic indicators pushed the "No change"
Jan 16 2026
January CPI data reveals softer core inflation and mixed economic signals;
50+ bps decrease dips to 2%1%
Fed expected to pause rate cuts due to tariff-related inflation pressures and modest labor market improvements, reducing odds of large cuts
Jan 14 2026
Fed officials, including Boston Fed President Susan Collins, advocate holding rates steady due to persistent inflation, reinforcing expectations of no change in upcoming meetings
No change jumps to 69%6%
Public remarks from Fed officials supporting a pause strengthened market conviction for no rate change.
Dec 11 2025
Fed signals pause on rate cuts after three consecutive reductions, emphasizing the need for clearer economic data and highlighting internal policy divisions
No change jumps to 61%14%
The Fed's communication about pausing cuts amid data gaps and leadership changes increased confidence in a hold scenario.
Dec 10 2025
Federal Reserve cuts rates by 25 basis points but signals a likely pause on further cuts as inflation remains elevated and economic data is unclear
No change plunges to 47%17%
Despite the cut, the Fed's cautious tone and data uncertainty led to a temporary drop in the "No change"
Dec 10 2025
Fed cuts rates to 3.5‑3.75% and signals pause on further easing – The FOMC’s December meeting lowered the target range by 25 bps and, per Reuters, “signaled it would likely pause
25+ bps increase drops to 6%10%
Fed cuts rates to 3.5‑3.75% and signals pause on further easing – The FOMC’s December meeting lowered the target range by 25 bps and, per Reuters, “signaled it would likely pause further reductions”. The cut removed the need for a near‑term hike, driving the
Nov 21 2025
New York Fed President John Williams signals potential for near-term rate cut, raising market expectations for December easing amid slightly cooler inflation data and resilient
50+ bps decrease drops to 8%9%
New York Fed President John Williams signals potential for near-term rate cut, raising market expectations for December easing amid slightly cooler inflation data and resilient consumer spending
Nov 20 2025
FOMC minutes reveal a divided committee with a growing consensus to keep rates steady at 3.75%-4.00%, frustrating White House calls for deeper cuts
No change jumps to 64%6%
The minutes indicated a shift toward holding rates steady, boosting the "No change" outcome probability.
Nov 18 2025
Fed officials remain divided on December rate decision amid inflation concerns and data disruptions, with some governors pushing for cuts and others advocating caution
No change dips to 58%3%
The division within the Fed created uncertainty, causing a dip in the "No change"
Nov 13 2025
Federal Reserve cuts interest rates for the third consecutive time, reducing the benchmark rate to 3.75%-4.00%, but signals uncertainty about further cuts amid sticky inflation and divided Fed views
No change rises to 61%3%
This event marked the start of market reassessment of the likelihood of further cuts, tempering earlier high expectations for a December cut.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.The Federal Open Market Committee's April 29 decision to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.5%-3.75%—a unanimous consensus among traders reflected in Polymarket's 100% implied probability for no change—stems from elevated inflation pressures, with March 2026 CPI rising 3.3% year-over-year amid a 10.9% energy surge driven by Middle East tensions, offsetting modest labor market softening evidenced by 4.3% unemployment and low jobless claims near 219,000. Solid economic expansion further supported holding steady, despite internal dissent including one vote for a 25 bps cut and three opposing an easing bias. Upcoming April CPI on May 12 and the next FOMC meeting could signal shifts if data deviates sharply.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Результат запропоновано: Ні
Оскаржено
Результат запропоновано: Ні
Без оскарження
Кінцевий результат: Ні
The Federal Open Market Committee's April 29 decision to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.5%-3.75%—a unanimous consensus among traders reflected in Polymarket's 100% implied probability for no change—stems from elevated inflation pressures, with March 2026 CPI rising 3.3% year-over-year amid a 10.9% energy surge driven by Middle East tensions, offsetting modest labor market softening evidenced by 4.3% unemployment and low jobless claims near 219,000. Solid economic expansion further supported holding steady, despite internal dissent including one vote for a 25 bps cut and three opposing an easing bias. Upcoming April CPI on May 12 and the next FOMC meeting could signal shifts if data deviates sharply.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Apr 28 2026
Federal Open Market Committee meeting scheduled; market fully
The final event is the FOMC meeting itself, where the market expects the Fed to hold rates steady, resolving the market question.
Apr 22 2026
JPMorgan Global Research and other analysts forecast the Fed will remain on hold at the April 28-29 meeting amid inflation risks and labor market strength
No change rises to 100%1%
Analyst consensus and market positioning ahead of the April meeting solidified the expectation of no rate change.
Mar 18 2026
Fed holds rates steady, projects higher inflation and rules out hikes through year‑end – In the March 2026 statement the Fed kept the policy range unchanged and “no policymakers
25+ bps increase dips to 0%3%
Fed holds rates steady, projects higher inflation and rules out hikes through year‑end – In the March 2026 statement the Fed kept the policy range unchanged and “no policymakers saw rates needing to move higher by the end of this year,” effectively eliminating the 25‑bp hike scenario. This pushed the outcome’s
Mar 18 2026
Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady in March meeting, projecting higher inflation and steady unemployment, signaling a single rate cut later in the year but not imminently
No change jumps to 96%10%
The March FOMC statement confirmed a hold, significantly boosting the "No change" outcome.
Mar 12 2026
Fed officials emphasize data dependency and caution amid resilient economic activity and inflation near target, leading markets to further lower expectations for a 50+ bps cut in
50+ bps decrease dips to 0%2%
Fed officials emphasize data dependency and caution amid resilient economic activity and inflation near target, leading markets to further lower expectations for a 50+ bps cut in April
Feb 14 2026
Market expectations for a December rate cut diminish further as Fed officials express doubts, and economic data shows steady but cautious growth
No change jumps to 86%11%
The fading probability of cuts and steady economic indicators pushed the "No change"
Jan 16 2026
January CPI data reveals softer core inflation and mixed economic signals;
50+ bps decrease dips to 2%1%
Fed expected to pause rate cuts due to tariff-related inflation pressures and modest labor market improvements, reducing odds of large cuts
Jan 14 2026
Fed officials, including Boston Fed President Susan Collins, advocate holding rates steady due to persistent inflation, reinforcing expectations of no change in upcoming meetings
No change jumps to 69%6%
Public remarks from Fed officials supporting a pause strengthened market conviction for no rate change.
Dec 11 2025
Fed signals pause on rate cuts after three consecutive reductions, emphasizing the need for clearer economic data and highlighting internal policy divisions
No change jumps to 61%14%
The Fed's communication about pausing cuts amid data gaps and leadership changes increased confidence in a hold scenario.
Dec 10 2025
Federal Reserve cuts rates by 25 basis points but signals a likely pause on further cuts as inflation remains elevated and economic data is unclear
No change plunges to 47%17%
Despite the cut, the Fed's cautious tone and data uncertainty led to a temporary drop in the "No change"
Dec 10 2025
Fed cuts rates to 3.5‑3.75% and signals pause on further easing – The FOMC’s December meeting lowered the target range by 25 bps and, per Reuters, “signaled it would likely pause
25+ bps increase drops to 6%10%
Fed cuts rates to 3.5‑3.75% and signals pause on further easing – The FOMC’s December meeting lowered the target range by 25 bps and, per Reuters, “signaled it would likely pause further reductions”. The cut removed the need for a near‑term hike, driving the
Nov 21 2025
New York Fed President John Williams signals potential for near-term rate cut, raising market expectations for December easing amid slightly cooler inflation data and resilient
50+ bps decrease drops to 8%9%
New York Fed President John Williams signals potential for near-term rate cut, raising market expectations for December easing amid slightly cooler inflation data and resilient consumer spending
Nov 20 2025
FOMC minutes reveal a divided committee with a growing consensus to keep rates steady at 3.75%-4.00%, frustrating White House calls for deeper cuts
No change jumps to 64%6%
The minutes indicated a shift toward holding rates steady, boosting the "No change" outcome probability.
Nov 18 2025
Fed officials remain divided on December rate decision amid inflation concerns and data disruptions, with some governors pushing for cuts and others advocating caution
No change dips to 58%3%
The division within the Fed created uncertainty, causing a dip in the "No change"
Nov 13 2025
Federal Reserve cuts interest rates for the third consecutive time, reducing the benchmark rate to 3.75%-4.00%, but signals uncertainty about further cuts amid sticky inflation and divided Fed views
No change rises to 61%3%
This event marked the start of market reassessment of the likelihood of further cuts, tempering earlier high expectations for a December cut.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання
«Рішення ФРС у квітні?» — це ринок прогнозів на Polymarket з 4 можливими результатами, де трейдери купують і продають акції залежно від того, що, на їхню думку, станеться. Поточний лідер — «Без змін» з 100%, далі «Зниження на понад 50 б. п.» з 0%. Ціни відображають краудсорсингові ймовірності в реальному часі. Акції правильного результату погашаються по $1 кожна при вирішенні ринку.
Станом на сьогодні, «Рішення ФРС у квітні?» згенерував $284.2 million загального обсягу торгів з моменту запуску ринку Nov 13, 2025. Цей рівень торгової активності відображає сильну залученість спільноти Polymarket та забезпечує, що поточні шанси базуються на глибокому пулі учасників ринку. Ви можете відстежувати рухи цін наживо та торгувати будь-яким результатом прямо на цій сторінці.
Щоб торгувати на «Рішення ФРС у квітні?», перегляньте 4 доступних результатів на цій сторінці. Кожен результат відображає поточну ціну — ймовірність ринку. Оберіть результат, оберіть «Так» чи «Ні», введіть суму та натисніть «Торгувати». Якщо ваш вибір правильний при вирішенні, акції «Так» виплачують $1. Якщо ні — $0. Ви також можете продати акції в будь-який час до вирішення.
Поточний фаворит для «Рішення ФРС у квітні?» — «Без змін» з 100%. Наступний — «Зниження на понад 50 б. п.» з 0%. Ці шанси оновлюються в реальному часі, коли трейдери купують і продають акції. Слідкуйте за змінами шансів з появою нової інформації.
Правила вирішення для «Рішення ФРС у квітні?» точно визначають, що має статися для оголошення переможця — включаючи офіційні джерела даних. Ви можете переглянути повні критерії вирішення в розділі «Правила» на цій сторінці. Рекомендуємо уважно прочитати правила перед торгівлею.
Так. Вам не потрібно торгувати, щоб бути в курсі. Ця сторінка служить трекером наживо для «Рішення ФРС у квітні?». Ймовірності результатів оновлюються в реальному часі з новими угодами. Збережіть сторінку та перегляньте коментарі інших трейдерів.
Шанси Polymarket встановлюються реальними трейдерами, які вкладають реальні гроші, що сприяє точним прогнозам. З $284.2 million торгового обсягу на «Рішення ФРС у квітні?» ці ціни агрегують колективні знання тисяч учасників. Polymarket має місячний показник точності 94%. Для актуальної статистики точності відвідайте сторінку точності на Polymarket.
Щоб зробити першу угоду на «Рішення ФРС у квітні?», зареєструйте безкоштовний акаунт на Polymarket та поповніть його криптою, кредитною чи дебетовою карткою або банківським переказом. Після поповнення поверніться на цю сторінку, оберіть результат, введіть суму та натисніть «Торгувати». Якщо ви новачок на ринках прогнозів, натисніть «Як це працює» вгорі будь-якої сторінки Polymarket.
На Polymarket ціна кожного результату відображає ймовірність ринку. Ціна 100¢ для «Без змін» на ринку «Рішення ФРС у квітні?» означає, що трейдери колективно оцінюють шанс цього результату приблизно в 100%. Якщо ви купите акції «Так» за 100¢ і результат правильний, ви отримаєте $1.00 за акцію — прибуток 0¢ за акцію.
Ринок «Рішення ФРС у квітні?» вирішено. Фінальний результат визначено і ринок більше не відкритий для торгівлі. Ви можете переглянути історичні шанси та коментарі на цій сторінці.
Ринок «Рішення ФРС у квітні?» має активна спільнота з 8,171 коментарями, де трейдери діляться аналізом, обговорюють результати та останні новини. Прокрутіть вниз до розділу коментарів. Ви також можете фільтрувати за «Топ власники» або переглянути вкладку «Активність» для стрічки угод у реальному часі.
Polymarket — найбільший ринок прогнозів у світі, де ви можете бути в курсі подій та заробляти на знаннях реальних подій. Трейдери купують і продають акції на результати тем від політики та виборів до крипто, фінансів, спорту, технологій та культури, включаючи ринки, як «Рішення ФРС у квітні?». Ціни відображають краудсорсингові ймовірності в реальному часі.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання