The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 97.5% implied probability of no change at the June 17-18 FOMC meeting, anchored by April 2026 CPI accelerating to 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023—and nonfarm payrolls adding a resilient 115,000 jobs amid prior revisions. Fed Chair Powell's recent cautious remarks, New York Fed President Williams' inflation warnings, and hawkish dissents in the April 28-29 meeting have solidified expectations for maintaining the 3.50%-3.75% fed funds target, unchanged since December 2025 cuts. This skin-in-the-game positioning could shift if upcoming May CPI (June 10 release) or softer labor data surprises lower, prompting re-pricing toward modest easing.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 97.5% implied probability of no change at the June 17-18 FOMC meeting, anchored by April 2026 CPI accelerating to 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023—and nonfarm payrolls adding a resilient 115,000 jobs amid prior revisions. Fed Chair Powell's recent cautious remarks, New York Fed President Williams' inflation warnings, and hawkish dissents in the April 28-29 meeting have solidified expectations for maintaining the 3.50%-3.75% fed funds target, unchanged since December 2025 cuts. This skin-in-the-game positioning could shift if upcoming May CPI (June 10 release) or softer labor data surprises lower, prompting re-pricing toward modest easing.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
May 13 2026
Fed’s June meeting statement signals no change to the target rate
No change rises to 98%2%
The official FOMC statement after the June 16‑17 meeting confirmed that the upper bound of the target federal funds range remained unchanged, cementing the market’s final move to near‑certain no‑change pricing.
May 10 2026
Fed’s June meeting minutes hint at a consensus to hold rates steady
No change rises to 98%2%
The released minutes confirmed that the Fed’s policymakers were aligned on a hold, cementing the No change contract at near‑certainty and pushing all cut‑related contracts to near zero.
Apr 22 2026
Fed signals likely to keep rates steady amid inflation and labor market concerns
No change rises to 95%2%
Ahead of the June meeting, Fed officials indicated a preference to hold rates steady to assess economic conditions, balancing stubborn inflation with a slowing labor market. This cautious stance led markets to strongly favor the no change outcome for the June 2026 Fed decision.
Apr 15 2026
President Trump nominates Kevin Warsh to replace Jerome Powell as Fed chair
25 bps increase jumps to 30%5%
The nomination suggested a possible shift toward more aggressive rate cuts, briefly reviving interest in the 25‑bps increase contract before the market re‑evaluated the likelihood of a hold.
Mar 20 2026
Fed minutes show split over further rate cuts, many officials favor holding steady
No change surges to 62%16%
Released minutes from the March meeting revealed that most policymakers preferred to keep the policy rate unchanged, pushing the market further toward the no‑change outcome.
Mar 8 2026
Fed releases statement that it will likely keep rates unchanged at June meeting
No change jumps to 98%6%
A formal Fed communication reaffirmed a hold stance, delivering a decisive boost to the No change contract and driving other contracts toward zero.
Feb 15 2026
Supreme Court agrees to hear case on attempted firing of Fed Governor Lisa Cook
No change dips to 46%2%
The high court’s decision to consider the Trump administration’s effort to remove Governor Cook signaled potential shifts in Fed board composition, reinforcing market expectations of a steady rate stance.
Feb 5 2026
Justice Department subpoenas the Federal Reserve over Chairman Powell’s testimony
25 bps decrease jumps to 45%7%
The unprecedented subpoena heightened political pressure on the Fed, causing traders to price in a higher likelihood of a rate‑cut, which briefly lifted the 25‑bps decrease contract before the market re‑asserted confidence in a hold.
Feb 4 2026
Supreme Court hears case on Trump’s attempt to fire Fed governor Lisa Cook
No change jumps to 56%6%
The Supreme Court considered the legality of President Trump's attempt to remove Fed governor Lisa Cook, a case seen as a test of the Fed's independence. The court's apparent inclination to allow Cook to remain reinforced expectations that the Fed would maintain its current policy stance, supporting the no change outcome.
Jan 20 2026
Trump announces plan to name Kevin Warsh as next Fed chair
No change jumps to 50%5%
President Trump announced his intention to nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve chair, signaling potential changes in Fed leadership. Warsh's nomination raised questions about future rate policy, but his cautious stance and the divided Fed committee suggested limited immediate impact on rate cuts, reinforcing market expectations for no change in June.
Jan 20 2026
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent proposes residency rule for regional Fed presidents
No change jumps to 92%8%
Bessent’s proposal signaled a possible shift in Fed governance that could give the White House more leverage over rate decisions, weakening confidence in any rate‑cut scenario and further boosting No change.
Jan 12 2026
Supreme Court agrees to hear case on President Trump's attempt to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook
25 bps decrease drops to 38%12%
The pending legal battle raised concerns that the Fed could lose independence, increasing the perceived risk of a politically‑driven rate cut and pulling price support from the 25‑bps decrease contract.
Jan 12 2026
Fed Chair Powell rebukes DOJ probe as political pressure
No change jumps to 45%8%
Powell issued a rare video statement condemning the DOJ investigation as a pretext to undermine the Fed’s independence in setting interest rates. This public defense reassured markets about the Fed's commitment to economic-based decisions, supporting the no change outcome in the market.
Jan 11 2026
DOJ launches criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell
No change rises to 37%4%
The Department of Justice launched a criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell related to his testimony about the Fed's $2.5 billion building renovation. Powell condemned the probe as politically motivated to pressure the Fed to cut interest rates, raising concerns about Fed independence and causing market uncertainty about future rate decisions.
Jan 7 2026
DOJ launches criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell
No change rises to 48%4%
The Justice Department announced a probe into Powell’s testimony on the Fed’s building renovation, raising concerns about political pressure on monetary policy and boosting confidence that rates would stay unchanged.
Dec 12 2025
U.S. inflation rises in November, dampening hopes for a rate cut
No change drops to 44%13%
Core CPI increased 2.8% YoY in November, signaling persistent price pressures and leading traders to expect the Fed to hold rates steady at its December meeting.
Dec 10 2025
Fed officials debate a third quarter‑point rate cut at December meeting
No change jumps to 84%13%
Minutes released showed a split vote (9‑3) on a quarter‑point cut, highlighting internal dissent and suggesting the cut could be fragile, which nudged the market toward No change.
Dec 10 2025
Fed cuts interest rate by 25 bps amid divided officials
25 bps decrease jumps to 55%5%
At the December 9-10 meeting, the Federal Reserve cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points, the third cut in 2025, but the decision was closely contested with dissenters favoring no change or a larger cut. This highlighted uncertainty about the Fed's next moves and influenced market expectations for the June 2026 meeting, initially supporting the possibility of rate cuts.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 97.5% implied probability of no change at the June 17-18 FOMC meeting, anchored by April 2026 CPI accelerating to 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023—and nonfarm payrolls adding a resilient 115,000 jobs amid prior revisions. Fed Chair Powell's recent cautious remarks, New York Fed President Williams' inflation warnings, and hawkish dissents in the April 28-29 meeting have solidified expectations for maintaining the 3.50%-3.75% fed funds target, unchanged since December 2025 cuts. This skin-in-the-game positioning could shift if upcoming May CPI (June 10 release) or softer labor data surprises lower, prompting re-pricing toward modest easing.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 97.5% implied probability of no change at the June 17-18 FOMC meeting, anchored by April 2026 CPI accelerating to 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023—and nonfarm payrolls adding a resilient 115,000 jobs amid prior revisions. Fed Chair Powell's recent cautious remarks, New York Fed President Williams' inflation warnings, and hawkish dissents in the April 28-29 meeting have solidified expectations for maintaining the 3.50%-3.75% fed funds target, unchanged since December 2025 cuts. This skin-in-the-game positioning could shift if upcoming May CPI (June 10 release) or softer labor data surprises lower, prompting re-pricing toward modest easing.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
May 13 2026
Fed’s June meeting statement signals no change to the target rate
No change rises to 98%2%
The official FOMC statement after the June 16‑17 meeting confirmed that the upper bound of the target federal funds range remained unchanged, cementing the market’s final move to near‑certain no‑change pricing.
May 10 2026
Fed’s June meeting minutes hint at a consensus to hold rates steady
No change rises to 98%2%
The released minutes confirmed that the Fed’s policymakers were aligned on a hold, cementing the No change contract at near‑certainty and pushing all cut‑related contracts to near zero.
Apr 22 2026
Fed signals likely to keep rates steady amid inflation and labor market concerns
No change rises to 95%2%
Ahead of the June meeting, Fed officials indicated a preference to hold rates steady to assess economic conditions, balancing stubborn inflation with a slowing labor market. This cautious stance led markets to strongly favor the no change outcome for the June 2026 Fed decision.
Apr 15 2026
President Trump nominates Kevin Warsh to replace Jerome Powell as Fed chair
25 bps increase jumps to 30%5%
The nomination suggested a possible shift toward more aggressive rate cuts, briefly reviving interest in the 25‑bps increase contract before the market re‑evaluated the likelihood of a hold.
Mar 20 2026
Fed minutes show split over further rate cuts, many officials favor holding steady
No change surges to 62%16%
Released minutes from the March meeting revealed that most policymakers preferred to keep the policy rate unchanged, pushing the market further toward the no‑change outcome.
Mar 8 2026
Fed releases statement that it will likely keep rates unchanged at June meeting
No change jumps to 98%6%
A formal Fed communication reaffirmed a hold stance, delivering a decisive boost to the No change contract and driving other contracts toward zero.
Feb 15 2026
Supreme Court agrees to hear case on attempted firing of Fed Governor Lisa Cook
No change dips to 46%2%
The high court’s decision to consider the Trump administration’s effort to remove Governor Cook signaled potential shifts in Fed board composition, reinforcing market expectations of a steady rate stance.
Feb 5 2026
Justice Department subpoenas the Federal Reserve over Chairman Powell’s testimony
25 bps decrease jumps to 45%7%
The unprecedented subpoena heightened political pressure on the Fed, causing traders to price in a higher likelihood of a rate‑cut, which briefly lifted the 25‑bps decrease contract before the market re‑asserted confidence in a hold.
Feb 4 2026
Supreme Court hears case on Trump’s attempt to fire Fed governor Lisa Cook
No change jumps to 56%6%
The Supreme Court considered the legality of President Trump's attempt to remove Fed governor Lisa Cook, a case seen as a test of the Fed's independence. The court's apparent inclination to allow Cook to remain reinforced expectations that the Fed would maintain its current policy stance, supporting the no change outcome.
Jan 20 2026
Trump announces plan to name Kevin Warsh as next Fed chair
No change jumps to 50%5%
President Trump announced his intention to nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve chair, signaling potential changes in Fed leadership. Warsh's nomination raised questions about future rate policy, but his cautious stance and the divided Fed committee suggested limited immediate impact on rate cuts, reinforcing market expectations for no change in June.
Jan 20 2026
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent proposes residency rule for regional Fed presidents
No change jumps to 92%8%
Bessent’s proposal signaled a possible shift in Fed governance that could give the White House more leverage over rate decisions, weakening confidence in any rate‑cut scenario and further boosting No change.
Jan 12 2026
Supreme Court agrees to hear case on President Trump's attempt to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook
25 bps decrease drops to 38%12%
The pending legal battle raised concerns that the Fed could lose independence, increasing the perceived risk of a politically‑driven rate cut and pulling price support from the 25‑bps decrease contract.
Jan 12 2026
Fed Chair Powell rebukes DOJ probe as political pressure
No change jumps to 45%8%
Powell issued a rare video statement condemning the DOJ investigation as a pretext to undermine the Fed’s independence in setting interest rates. This public defense reassured markets about the Fed's commitment to economic-based decisions, supporting the no change outcome in the market.
Jan 11 2026
DOJ launches criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell
No change rises to 37%4%
The Department of Justice launched a criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell related to his testimony about the Fed's $2.5 billion building renovation. Powell condemned the probe as politically motivated to pressure the Fed to cut interest rates, raising concerns about Fed independence and causing market uncertainty about future rate decisions.
Jan 7 2026
DOJ launches criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell
No change rises to 48%4%
The Justice Department announced a probe into Powell’s testimony on the Fed’s building renovation, raising concerns about political pressure on monetary policy and boosting confidence that rates would stay unchanged.
Dec 12 2025
U.S. inflation rises in November, dampening hopes for a rate cut
No change drops to 44%13%
Core CPI increased 2.8% YoY in November, signaling persistent price pressures and leading traders to expect the Fed to hold rates steady at its December meeting.
Dec 10 2025
Fed officials debate a third quarter‑point rate cut at December meeting
No change jumps to 84%13%
Minutes released showed a split vote (9‑3) on a quarter‑point cut, highlighting internal dissent and suggesting the cut could be fragile, which nudged the market toward No change.
Dec 10 2025
Fed cuts interest rate by 25 bps amid divided officials
25 bps decrease jumps to 55%5%
At the December 9-10 meeting, the Federal Reserve cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points, the third cut in 2025, but the decision was closely contested with dissenters favoring no change or a larger cut. This highlighted uncertainty about the Fed's next moves and influenced market expectations for the June 2026 meeting, initially supporting the possibility of rate cuts.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання
«Рішення ФРС у червні?» — це ринок прогнозів на Polymarket з 5 можливими результатами, де трейдери купують і продають акції залежно від того, що, на їхню думку, станеться. Поточний лідер — «Без змін» з 98%, далі «Зниження на 25 б.п.» з 1%. Ціни відображають краудсорсингові ймовірності в реальному часі. Акції правильного результату погашаються по $1 кожна при вирішенні ринку.
Станом на сьогодні, «Рішення ФРС у червні?» згенерував $26.9 million загального обсягу торгів з моменту запуску ринку Dec 10, 2025. Цей рівень торгової активності відображає сильну залученість спільноти Polymarket та забезпечує, що поточні шанси базуються на глибокому пулі учасників ринку. Ви можете відстежувати рухи цін наживо та торгувати будь-яким результатом прямо на цій сторінці.
Щоб торгувати на «Рішення ФРС у червні?», перегляньте 5 доступних результатів на цій сторінці. Кожен результат відображає поточну ціну — ймовірність ринку. Оберіть результат, оберіть «Так» чи «Ні», введіть суму та натисніть «Торгувати». Якщо ваш вибір правильний при вирішенні, акції «Так» виплачують $1. Якщо ні — $0. Ви також можете продати акції в будь-який час до вирішення.
Поточний фаворит для «Рішення ФРС у червні?» — «Без змін» з 98%. Наступний — «Зниження на 25 б.п.» з 1%. Ці шанси оновлюються в реальному часі, коли трейдери купують і продають акції. Слідкуйте за змінами шансів з появою нової інформації.
Правила вирішення для «Рішення ФРС у червні?» точно визначають, що має статися для оголошення переможця — включаючи офіційні джерела даних. Ви можете переглянути повні критерії вирішення в розділі «Правила» на цій сторінці. Рекомендуємо уважно прочитати правила перед торгівлею.
Так. Вам не потрібно торгувати, щоб бути в курсі. Ця сторінка служить трекером наживо для «Рішення ФРС у червні?». Ймовірності результатів оновлюються в реальному часі з новими угодами. Збережіть сторінку та перегляньте коментарі інших трейдерів.
Шанси Polymarket встановлюються реальними трейдерами, які вкладають реальні гроші, що сприяє точним прогнозам. З $26.9 million торгового обсягу на «Рішення ФРС у червні?» ці ціни агрегують колективні знання тисяч учасників. Polymarket має місячний показник точності 94%. Для актуальної статистики точності відвідайте сторінку точності на Polymarket.
Щоб зробити першу угоду на «Рішення ФРС у червні?», зареєструйте безкоштовний акаунт на Polymarket та поповніть його криптою, кредитною чи дебетовою карткою або банківським переказом. Після поповнення поверніться на цю сторінку, оберіть результат, введіть суму та натисніть «Торгувати». Якщо ви новачок на ринках прогнозів, натисніть «Як це працює» вгорі будь-якої сторінки Polymarket.
На Polymarket ціна кожного результату відображає ймовірність ринку. Ціна 98¢ для «Без змін» на ринку «Рішення ФРС у червні?» означає, що трейдери колективно оцінюють шанс цього результату приблизно в 98%. Якщо ви купите акції «Так» за 98¢ і результат правильний, ви отримаєте $1.00 за акцію — прибуток 2¢ за акцію.
Ринок «Рішення ФРС у червні?» запланований до вирішення приблизно Jun 17, 2026. Торгівля залишатиметься відкритою, а шанси продовжуватимуть змінюватися з появою нової інформації до цієї дати.
Ринок «Рішення ФРС у червні?» має активна спільнота з 8,174 коментарями, де трейдери діляться аналізом, обговорюють результати та останні новини. Прокрутіть вниз до розділу коментарів. Ви також можете фільтрувати за «Топ власники» або переглянути вкладку «Активність» для стрічки угод у реальному часі.
Polymarket — найбільший ринок прогнозів у світі, де ви можете бути в курсі подій та заробляти на знаннях реальних подій. Трейдери купують і продають акції на результати тем від політики та виборів до крипто, фінансів, спорту, технологій та культури, включаючи ринки, як «Рішення ФРС у червні?». Ціни відображають краудсорсингові ймовірності в реальному часі.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання