Recent hotter-than-expected August CPI data at 3.4% year-over-year, with core rising 0.3% month-over-month, combined with a robust 162,000 August jobs gain, have shifted trader consensus toward Federal Reserve tightening. The federal funds rate sits at 3.50%-3.75% after the July hold, yet persistent inflation above the 2% target, energy price pressures, and hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole have pushed September hike odds near 85-90% per futures markets. This momentum supports an 86.5% implied probability of at least one 2026 rate increase, as incoming data through year-end and the September FOMC meeting remain key swing factors.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоПідвищення ставки ФРС у 2026 році?
Підвищення ставки ФРС у 2026 році?
Так
87% шанс
$9,118,201 Обс.
$9,118,201 Обс.
Dec 8, 2026
Так
87% шанс
$9,118,201 Обс.
$9,118,201 Обс.
Dec 8, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent hotter-than-expected August CPI data at 3.4% year-over-year, with core rising 0.3% month-over-month, combined with a robust 162,000 August jobs gain, have shifted trader consensus toward Federal Reserve tightening. The federal funds rate sits at 3.50%-3.75% after the July hold, yet persistent inflation above the 2% target, energy price pressures, and hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole have pushed September hike odds near 85-90% per futures markets. This momentum supports an 86.5% implied probability of at least one 2026 rate increase, as incoming data through year-end and the September FOMC meeting remain key swing factors.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Обсяг
$9,118,201Дата завершення
Dec 9, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent hotter-than-expected August CPI data at 3.4% year-over-year, with core rising 0.3% month-over-month, combined with a robust 162,000 August jobs gain, have shifted trader consensus toward Federal Reserve tightening. The federal funds rate sits at 3.50%-3.75% after the July hold, yet persistent inflation above the 2% target, energy price pressures, and hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole have pushed September hike odds near 85-90% per futures markets. This momentum supports an 86.5% implied probability of at least one 2026 rate increase, as incoming data through year-end and the September FOMC meeting remain key swing factors.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Обсяг
$9,118,201Дата завершення
Dec 9, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...Recent hotter-than-expected August CPI data at 3.4% year-over-year, with core rising 0.3% month-over-month, combined with a robust 162,000 August jobs gain, have shifted trader consensus toward Federal Reserve tightening. The federal funds rate sits at 3.50%-3.75% after the July hold, yet persistent inflation above the 2% target, energy price pressures, and hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole have pushed September hike odds near 85-90% per futures markets. This momentum supports an 86.5% implied probability of at least one 2026 rate increase, as incoming data through year-end and the September FOMC meeting remain key swing factors.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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