The limited scale and rapid containment of a May 2026 Andes virus cluster aboard one cruise ship—totaling just 13 confirmed or probable cases with three deaths—underpins the 96.4% market-implied probability against a hantavirus pandemic this year. Official CDC and WHO surveillance shows no sustained person-to-person transmission outside rare close-contact settings, zero U.S. cases linked to the outbreak, and risk to the general public remaining extremely low, consistent with the virus's typical rodent-borne epidemiology and historical U.S. totals of roughly 890 cases since 1993. Traders appear to weigh these verified low case counts and lack of exponential growth against pandemic criteria such as widespread geographic spread and high incidence. While new rodent-driven outbreaks or undetected chains could theoretically emerge before year-end, current epidemiological indicators and surveillance data make escalation improbable.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
4% шанс
$17,842,797 Обс.
$17,842,797 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
4% шанс
$17,842,797 Обс.
$17,842,797 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The limited scale and rapid containment of a May 2026 Andes virus cluster aboard one cruise ship—totaling just 13 confirmed or probable cases with three deaths—underpins the 96.4% market-implied probability against a hantavirus pandemic this year. Official CDC and WHO surveillance shows no sustained person-to-person transmission outside rare close-contact settings, zero U.S. cases linked to the outbreak, and risk to the general public remaining extremely low, consistent with the virus's typical rodent-borne epidemiology and historical U.S. totals of roughly 890 cases since 1993. Traders appear to weigh these verified low case counts and lack of exponential growth against pandemic criteria such as widespread geographic spread and high incidence. While new rodent-driven outbreaks or undetected chains could theoretically emerge before year-end, current epidemiological indicators and surveillance data make escalation improbable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ринок відкрито: May 4, 2026, 10:26 AM ET
Обсяг
$17,842,797Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 4, 2026, 10:26 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The limited scale and rapid containment of a May 2026 Andes virus cluster aboard one cruise ship—totaling just 13 confirmed or probable cases with three deaths—underpins the 96.4% market-implied probability against a hantavirus pandemic this year. Official CDC and WHO surveillance shows no sustained person-to-person transmission outside rare close-contact settings, zero U.S. cases linked to the outbreak, and risk to the general public remaining extremely low, consistent with the virus's typical rodent-borne epidemiology and historical U.S. totals of roughly 890 cases since 1993. Traders appear to weigh these verified low case counts and lack of exponential growth against pandemic criteria such as widespread geographic spread and high incidence. While new rodent-driven outbreaks or undetected chains could theoretically emerge before year-end, current epidemiological indicators and surveillance data make escalation improbable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Обсяг
$17,842,797Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 4, 2026, 10:26 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The limited scale and rapid containment of a May 2026 Andes virus cluster aboard one cruise ship—totaling just 13 confirmed or probable cases with three deaths—underpins the 96.4% market-implied probability against a hantavirus pandemic this year. Official CDC and WHO surveillance shows no sustained person-to-person transmission outside rare close-contact settings, zero U.S. cases linked to the outbreak, and risk to the general public remaining extremely low, consistent with the virus's typical rodent-borne epidemiology and historical U.S. totals of roughly 890 cases since 1993. Traders appear to weigh these verified low case counts and lack of exponential growth against pandemic criteria such as widespread geographic spread and high incidence. While new rodent-driven outbreaks or undetected chains could theoretically emerge before year-end, current epidemiological indicators and surveillance data make escalation improbable.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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