Recent National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance points to a high near 97°F in Austin on September 4, with partly cloudy skies, south winds around 5 mph, and only a 20% chance of afternoon showers or thunderstorms. This setup reflects typical late-summer conditions moderated by Gulf moisture and limited upper-level support for extreme heating or rapid cooling. The closely matched market odds on 106°F-or-higher versus 87°F-or-below capture residual uncertainty in short-range model spread and the possibility of unforecast steering changes, though climatological baselines and current 500-hPa heights strongly favor mid-90s readings. Updated NWS briefings and new model runs over the next 48 hours will clarify whether any deviation from this consensus emerges before resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Austin on September 4?
Highest temperature in Austin on September 4?
92-93°F 49%
94-95°F 38%
96-97°F 23%
90-91°F 20%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 4, 2026
87°F or below
1%
88-89°F
1%
90-91°F
20%
92-93°F
49%
94-95°F
38%
96-97°F
23%
98-99°F
16%
100-101°F
17%
102-103°F
16%
104-105°F
19%
106°F or higher
16%
92-93°F 49%
94-95°F 38%
96-97°F 23%
90-91°F 20%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 4, 2026
87°F or below
$0 Обс.
1%
88-89°F
$0 Обс.
1%
90-91°F
$0 Обс.
20%
92-93°F
$0 Обс.
49%
94-95°F
$0 Обс.
38%
96-97°F
$0 Обс.
23%
98-99°F
$13 Обс.
16%
100-101°F
$10 Обс.
17%
102-103°F
$0 Обс.
16%
104-105°F
$0 Обс.
19%
106°F or higher
$0 Обс.
16%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance points to a high near 97°F in Austin on September 4, with partly cloudy skies, south winds around 5 mph, and only a 20% chance of afternoon showers or thunderstorms. This setup reflects typical late-summer conditions moderated by Gulf moisture and limited upper-level support for extreme heating or rapid cooling. The closely matched market odds on 106°F-or-higher versus 87°F-or-below capture residual uncertainty in short-range model spread and the possibility of unforecast steering changes, though climatological baselines and current 500-hPa heights strongly favor mid-90s readings. Updated NWS briefings and new model runs over the next 48 hours will clarify whether any deviation from this consensus emerges before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 2, 2026, 2:56 AM ET
Обсяг
$23Дата завершення
Sep 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 2, 2026, 2:56 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance points to a high near 97°F in Austin on September 4, with partly cloudy skies, south winds around 5 mph, and only a 20% chance of afternoon showers or thunderstorms. This setup reflects typical late-summer conditions moderated by Gulf moisture and limited upper-level support for extreme heating or rapid cooling. The closely matched market odds on 106°F-or-higher versus 87°F-or-below capture residual uncertainty in short-range model spread and the possibility of unforecast steering changes, though climatological baselines and current 500-hPa heights strongly favor mid-90s readings. Updated NWS briefings and new model runs over the next 48 hours will clarify whether any deviation from this consensus emerges before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$23Дата завершення
Sep 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 2, 2026, 2:56 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance points to a high near 97°F in Austin on September 4, with partly cloudy skies, south winds around 5 mph, and only a 20% chance of afternoon showers or thunderstorms. This setup reflects typical late-summer conditions moderated by Gulf moisture and limited upper-level support for extreme heating or rapid cooling. The closely matched market odds on 106°F-or-higher versus 87°F-or-below capture residual uncertainty in short-range model spread and the possibility of unforecast steering changes, though climatological baselines and current 500-hPa heights strongly favor mid-90s readings. Updated NWS briefings and new model runs over the next 48 hours will clarify whether any deviation from this consensus emerges before resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання