Recent ensemble forecasts from Météo-France and ECMWF indicate moderating Atlantic airflow and increased cloud cover will limit peak heating in Paris on August 18, keeping the daily maximum near 27–29 °C after the mid-August heatwave. Model consensus shows a transition from anticyclonic conditions to a weak trough, with afternoon instability and possible showers reducing insolation and surface temperatures. Historical August climatology places mean highs around 24–26 °C, so current anomalies reflect residual warmth tempered by these synoptic shifts. Uncertainty in cloud timing and boundary-layer mixing creates the tight spread among 27 °C, 28 °C, and 29 °C outcomes visible in trader probabilities, with new model runs expected to refine the range before resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Paris on August 18?
Highest temperature in Paris on August 18?
27°C 31%
28°C 31%
29°C 24%
26°C 13%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 18, 2026
25°C or below
9%
26°C
13%
27°C
31%
28°C
31%
29°C
24%
30°C
5%
31°C
2%
32°C
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C
<1%
35°C or higher
<1%
27°C 31%
28°C 31%
29°C 24%
26°C 13%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 18, 2026
25°C or below
$30 Обс.
9%
26°C
$0 Обс.
13%
27°C
$30 Обс.
31%
28°C
$10 Обс.
31%
29°C
$25 Обс.
24%
30°C
$0 Обс.
5%
31°C
$159 Обс.
2%
32°C
$5 Обс.
<1%
33°C
$0 Обс.
<1%
34°C
$0 Обс.
<1%
35°C or higher
$0 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from Météo-France and ECMWF indicate moderating Atlantic airflow and increased cloud cover will limit peak heating in Paris on August 18, keeping the daily maximum near 27–29 °C after the mid-August heatwave. Model consensus shows a transition from anticyclonic conditions to a weak trough, with afternoon instability and possible showers reducing insolation and surface temperatures. Historical August climatology places mean highs around 24–26 °C, so current anomalies reflect residual warmth tempered by these synoptic shifts. Uncertainty in cloud timing and boundary-layer mixing creates the tight spread among 27 °C, 28 °C, and 29 °C outcomes visible in trader probabilities, with new model runs expected to refine the range before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 16, 2026, 12:55 AM ET
Обсяг
$259Дата завершення
Aug 18, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 16, 2026, 12:55 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from Météo-France and ECMWF indicate moderating Atlantic airflow and increased cloud cover will limit peak heating in Paris on August 18, keeping the daily maximum near 27–29 °C after the mid-August heatwave. Model consensus shows a transition from anticyclonic conditions to a weak trough, with afternoon instability and possible showers reducing insolation and surface temperatures. Historical August climatology places mean highs around 24–26 °C, so current anomalies reflect residual warmth tempered by these synoptic shifts. Uncertainty in cloud timing and boundary-layer mixing creates the tight spread among 27 °C, 28 °C, and 29 °C outcomes visible in trader probabilities, with new model runs expected to refine the range before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$259Дата завершення
Aug 18, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 16, 2026, 12:55 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from Météo-France and ECMWF indicate moderating Atlantic airflow and increased cloud cover will limit peak heating in Paris on August 18, keeping the daily maximum near 27–29 °C after the mid-August heatwave. Model consensus shows a transition from anticyclonic conditions to a weak trough, with afternoon instability and possible showers reducing insolation and surface temperatures. Historical August climatology places mean highs around 24–26 °C, so current anomalies reflect residual warmth tempered by these synoptic shifts. Uncertainty in cloud timing and boundary-layer mixing creates the tight spread among 27 °C, 28 °C, and 29 °C outcomes visible in trader probabilities, with new model runs expected to refine the range before resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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