**Most Democratic Senate incumbents seeking renomination in 2026 have faced minimal or no organized primary opposition, supporting the market's strong consensus on zero defeats.** With 13 Democratic seats up for regular election, several incumbents including Cory Booker (NJ), John Hickenlooper (CO), Jeff Merkley (OR), and Ben Ray Luján (NM) advanced with little resistance after filing deadlines passed and potential challengers failed to qualify or gain traction. Retirements such as Gary Peters (MI) and Tina Smith (MN) created open-seat primaries that do not count toward incumbent losses. Recent August primaries, including Michigan's competitive open contest won by Abdul El-Sayed, further illustrate the absence of successful challenges against sitting Democratic senators. Historical patterns show Senate primary defeats remain rare, and current filing and polling data indicate no Democratic incumbent has been defeated or faces imminent defeat. Trader pricing reflects this low baseline risk absent major late developments.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHow many Democratic Senate Incumbents will not win their Primary?
How many Democratic Senate Incumbents will not win their Primary?
0 79%
1 12.4%
2 3.4%
4 <1%
$14,008 Обс.
$14,008 Обс.
0
79%
1
12%
2
3%
3
<1%
4
1%
>4
7%
0 79%
1 12.4%
2 3.4%
4 <1%
$14,008 Обс.
$14,008 Обс.
0
$8,581 Обс.
79%
1
$1,887 Обс.
12%
2
$1,518 Обс.
3%
3
$697 Обс.
<1%
4
$724 Обс.
1%
>4
$602 Обс.
7%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.**Most Democratic Senate incumbents seeking renomination in 2026 have faced minimal or no organized primary opposition, supporting the market's strong consensus on zero defeats.** With 13 Democratic seats up for regular election, several incumbents including Cory Booker (NJ), John Hickenlooper (CO), Jeff Merkley (OR), and Ben Ray Luján (NM) advanced with little resistance after filing deadlines passed and potential challengers failed to qualify or gain traction. Retirements such as Gary Peters (MI) and Tina Smith (MN) created open-seat primaries that do not count toward incumbent losses. Recent August primaries, including Michigan's competitive open contest won by Abdul El-Sayed, further illustrate the absence of successful challenges against sitting Democratic senators. Historical patterns show Senate primary defeats remain rare, and current filing and polling data indicate no Democratic incumbent has been defeated or faces imminent defeat. Trader pricing reflects this low baseline risk absent major late developments.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
Ринок відкрито: Jan 14, 2026, 2:52 PM ET
Обсяг
$14,008Ринок відкрито
Jan 14, 2026, 2:52 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.**Most Democratic Senate incumbents seeking renomination in 2026 have faced minimal or no organized primary opposition, supporting the market's strong consensus on zero defeats.** With 13 Democratic seats up for regular election, several incumbents including Cory Booker (NJ), John Hickenlooper (CO), Jeff Merkley (OR), and Ben Ray Luján (NM) advanced with little resistance after filing deadlines passed and potential challengers failed to qualify or gain traction. Retirements such as Gary Peters (MI) and Tina Smith (MN) created open-seat primaries that do not count toward incumbent losses. Recent August primaries, including Michigan's competitive open contest won by Abdul El-Sayed, further illustrate the absence of successful challenges against sitting Democratic senators. Historical patterns show Senate primary defeats remain rare, and current filing and polling data indicate no Democratic incumbent has been defeated or faces imminent defeat. Trader pricing reflects this low baseline risk absent major late developments.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
Обсяг
$14,008Ринок відкрито
Jan 14, 2026, 2:52 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Most Democratic Senate incumbents seeking renomination in 2026 have faced minimal or no organized primary opposition, supporting the market's strong consensus on zero defeats.** With 13 Democratic seats up for regular election, several incumbents including Cory Booker (NJ), John Hickenlooper (CO), Jeff Merkley (OR), and Ben Ray Luján (NM) advanced with little resistance after filing deadlines passed and potential challengers failed to qualify or gain traction. Retirements such as Gary Peters (MI) and Tina Smith (MN) created open-seat primaries that do not count toward incumbent losses. Recent August primaries, including Michigan's competitive open contest won by Abdul El-Sayed, further illustrate the absence of successful challenges against sitting Democratic senators. Historical patterns show Senate primary defeats remain rare, and current filing and polling data indicate no Democratic incumbent has been defeated or faces imminent defeat. Trader pricing reflects this low baseline risk absent major late developments.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоПов'язане
Will Republican Senate incumbents not win in exactly three nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?
82%
Will Democratic House incumbents not win in between ten and twelve nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?
50%
Will Republican House incumbents not win in between four and six nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?
93%
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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