Recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, including the Iran conflict, have driven energy prices higher and pushed March 2026 CPI inflation to 3.3 percent, prompting the Federal Reserve to maintain the federal funds target range at 3.50-3.75 percent through its latest meetings. This environment has led trader consensus on Polymarket to assign a 70.3 percent implied probability to zero rate cuts for the remainder of 2026, consistent with CME FedWatch pricing near 71.5 percent for no easing this year. Major brokerages including Bank of America now forecast the first cut no earlier than mid-2027, citing resilient labor market conditions and elevated inflation risks that outweigh growth concerns. Upcoming FOMC decisions and labor market releases will remain key swing factors for any shift in these probabilities.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено0 (0 б.п.) 70.2%
1 (25 б.п.) 16%
2 (50 бп) 7%
3 (75 б.п.) 2.5%
$26,942,114 Обс.
$26,942,114 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
0 (0 б.п.)
70%
1 (25 б.п.)
16%
2 (50 бп)
7%
3 (75 б.п.)
3%
4 (100 б.п.)
1%
5 (125 б.п.)
1%
6 (150 б.п.)
1%
7 (175 б.п.)
<1%
8 (200 б.п.)
<1%
9 (225 б.п.)
<1%
10 (250 б.п.)
<1%
11 (275 б. п.)
<1%
12+ (300+ б.п.)
1%
0 (0 б.п.) 70.2%
1 (25 б.п.) 16%
2 (50 бп) 7%
3 (75 б.п.) 2.5%
$26,942,114 Обс.
$26,942,114 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
0 (0 б.п.)
$4,189,211 Обс.
70%
1 (25 б.п.)
$1,245,187 Обс.
16%
2 (50 бп)
$1,204,668 Обс.
7%
3 (75 б.п.)
$1,114,221 Обс.
3%
4 (100 б.п.)
$1,197,011 Обс.
1%
5 (125 б.п.)
$1,418,862 Обс.
1%
6 (150 б.п.)
$2,491,566 Обс.
1%
7 (175 б.п.)
$1,325,157 Обс.
<1%
8 (200 б.п.)
$1,735,350 Обс.
<1%
9 (225 б.п.)
$2,455,821 Обс.
<1%
10 (250 б.п.)
$3,124,342 Обс.
<1%
11 (275 б. п.)
$3,275,372 Обс.
<1%
12+ (300+ б.п.)
$2,166,180 Обс.
1%
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, including the Iran conflict, have driven energy prices higher and pushed March 2026 CPI inflation to 3.3 percent, prompting the Federal Reserve to maintain the federal funds target range at 3.50-3.75 percent through its latest meetings. This environment has led trader consensus on Polymarket to assign a 70.3 percent implied probability to zero rate cuts for the remainder of 2026, consistent with CME FedWatch pricing near 71.5 percent for no easing this year. Major brokerages including Bank of America now forecast the first cut no earlier than mid-2027, citing resilient labor market conditions and elevated inflation risks that outweigh growth concerns. Upcoming FOMC decisions and labor market releases will remain key swing factors for any shift in these probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET
Обсяг
$26,942,114Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, including the Iran conflict, have driven energy prices higher and pushed March 2026 CPI inflation to 3.3 percent, prompting the Federal Reserve to maintain the federal funds target range at 3.50-3.75 percent through its latest meetings. This environment has led trader consensus on Polymarket to assign a 70.3 percent implied probability to zero rate cuts for the remainder of 2026, consistent with CME FedWatch pricing near 71.5 percent for no easing this year. Major brokerages including Bank of America now forecast the first cut no earlier than mid-2027, citing resilient labor market conditions and elevated inflation risks that outweigh growth concerns. Upcoming FOMC decisions and labor market releases will remain key swing factors for any shift in these probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Обсяг
$26,942,114Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, including the Iran conflict, have driven energy prices higher and pushed March 2026 CPI inflation to 3.3 percent, prompting the Federal Reserve to maintain the federal funds target range at 3.50-3.75 percent through its latest meetings. This environment has led trader consensus on Polymarket to assign a 70.3 percent implied probability to zero rate cuts for the remainder of 2026, consistent with CME FedWatch pricing near 71.5 percent for no easing this year. Major brokerages including Bank of America now forecast the first cut no earlier than mid-2027, citing resilient labor market conditions and elevated inflation risks that outweigh growth concerns. Upcoming FOMC decisions and labor market releases will remain key swing factors for any shift in these probabilities.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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