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icon for Скільки знижень ставки ФРС у 2026 році?
Економ·Тарифи Fed

Скільки знижень ставки ФРС у 2026 році?

icon for Скільки знижень ставки ФРС у 2026 році?
Економ·Тарифи Fed

Скільки знижень ставки ФРС у 2026 році?

0 (0 б.п.) 96.0%

1 (25 б.п.) 1.1%

2 (50 бп) <1%

3 (75 б.п.) <1%

Polymarket

$53,126,739 Обс.

0 (0 б.п.) 96.0%

1 (25 б.п.) 1.1%

2 (50 бп) <1%

3 (75 б.п.) <1%

Polymarket

$53,126,739 Обс.

0 (0 б.п.)

$8,470,511 Обс.

96%

1 (25 б.п.)

$3,263,877 Обс.

1%

2 (50 бп)

$3,241,788 Обс.

1%

3 (75 б.п.)

$2,928,629 Обс.

<1%

4 (100 б.п.)

$2,729,849 Обс.

<1%

5 (125 б.п.)

$2,988,671 Обс.

<1%

6 (150 б.п.)

$4,222,076 Обс.

<1%

7 (175 б.п.)

$3,523,869 Обс.

<1%

8 (200 б.п.)

$3,292,613 Обс.

<1%

9 (225 б.п.)

$4,286,511 Обс.

<1%

10 (250 б.п.)

$4,951,980 Обс.

<1%

11 (275 б. п.)

$5,268,834 Обс.

<1%

12+ (300+ б.п.)

$3,957,532 Обс.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Recent hawkish shifts by the Federal Reserve, including the September 16, 2026, 25-basis-point hike to a 3.75-4.00% target range, underpin the 96% market-implied probability of zero rate cuts for the full year. Elevated inflation—August 2026 CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year, with core measures at 2.4%—combined with upgraded PCE projections at 3.7% for 2026, has prompted policymakers to signal additional tightening. The updated dot plot shows a 4.1% median federal funds rate endpoint for year-end 2026, reflecting 16 of 18 participants expecting at least one more hike. Labor market resilience, with unemployment projected near 4.1%, further supports holding policy steady rather than easing. Key upcoming catalysts include the October 28 FOMC meeting and September CPI release, where sustained price pressures could reinforce this consensus while sharper disinflation might introduce limited scope for a late-year pivot.

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).

Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.

For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).

This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.

Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.

The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Обсяг
$53,126,739
Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026
Ринок відкрито
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET

Вирішувач

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Recent hawkish shifts by the Federal Reserve, including the September 16, 2026, 25-basis-point hike to a 3.75-4.00% target range, underpin the 96% market-implied probability of zero rate cuts for the full year. Elevated inflation—August 2026 CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year, with core measures at 2.4%—combined with upgraded PCE projections at 3.7% for 2026, has prompted policymakers to signal additional tightening. The updated dot plot shows a 4.1% median federal funds rate endpoint for year-end 2026, reflecting 16 of 18 participants expecting at least one more hike. Labor market resilience, with unemployment projected near 4.1%, further supports holding policy steady rather than easing. Key upcoming catalysts include the October 28 FOMC meeting and September CPI release, where sustained price pressures could reinforce this consensus while sharper disinflation might introduce limited scope for a late-year pivot.

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).

Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.

For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).

This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.

Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.

The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Обсяг
$53,126,739
Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026
Ринок відкрито
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET

Вирішувач

0x2F5e3684c...

Пов'язане

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Will 2 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?

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Fed rate cut by July 2027 meeting?

48%
icon for Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?

68%

Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.

Часті запитання

«Скільки знижень ставки ФРС у 2026 році?» — це ринок прогнозів на Polymarket з 13 можливими результатами, де трейдери купують і продають акції залежно від того, що, на їхню думку, станеться. Поточний лідер — «0 (0 б.п.)» з 96%, далі «1 (25 б.п.)» з 1%. Ціни відображають краудсорсингові ймовірності в реальному часі. Акції правильного результату погашаються по $1 кожна при вирішенні ринку.

Станом на сьогодні, «Скільки знижень ставки ФРС у 2026 році?» згенерував $53.1 million загального обсягу торгів з моменту запуску ринку Sep 29, 2025. Цей рівень торгової активності відображає сильну залученість спільноти Polymarket та забезпечує, що поточні шанси базуються на глибокому пулі учасників ринку. Ви можете відстежувати рухи цін наживо та торгувати будь-яким результатом прямо на цій сторінці.

Щоб торгувати на «Скільки знижень ставки ФРС у 2026 році?», перегляньте 13 доступних результатів на цій сторінці. Кожен результат відображає поточну ціну — ймовірність ринку. Оберіть результат, оберіть «Так» чи «Ні», введіть суму та натисніть «Торгувати». Якщо ваш вибір правильний при вирішенні, акції «Так» виплачують $1. Якщо ні — $0. Ви також можете продати акції в будь-який час до вирішення.

Поточний фаворит для «Скільки знижень ставки ФРС у 2026 році?» — «0 (0 б.п.)» з 96%. Наступний — «1 (25 б.п.)» з 1%. Ці шанси оновлюються в реальному часі, коли трейдери купують і продають акції. Слідкуйте за змінами шансів з появою нової інформації.

Правила вирішення для «Скільки знижень ставки ФРС у 2026 році?» точно визначають, що має статися для оголошення переможця — включаючи офіційні джерела даних. Ви можете переглянути повні критерії вирішення в розділі «Правила» на цій сторінці. Рекомендуємо уважно прочитати правила перед торгівлею.