Persistent inflation pressures from the ongoing Middle East conflict and elevated energy prices have driven market-implied odds for zero Fed rate cuts in 2026 to 70.5%, reflecting a broad trader consensus that the central bank will maintain its 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range. March CPI rose to 3.3% year-over-year while April readings approached 3.8%, outpacing consensus and reinforcing hawkish FOMC communications after the April meeting. A resilient labor market, with modest nonfarm payroll gains and unemployment near 4.3%, has further reduced expectations for easing, prompting major brokerages including BofA to defer any cuts until 2027. CME FedWatch futures currently price roughly 71% odds of no policy change through year-end, with the next FOMC gathering in June serving as a key near-term catalyst for any sentiment shifts.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено0 (0 б.п.) 70.5%
1 (25 б.п.) 16%
2 (50 бп) 7%
3 (75 б.п.) 2.7%
$26,916,032 Обс.
$26,916,032 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
0 (0 б.п.)
71%
1 (25 б.п.)
16%
2 (50 бп)
7%
3 (75 б.п.)
3%
4 (100 б.п.)
1%
5 (125 б.п.)
1%
6 (150 б.п.)
1%
7 (175 б.п.)
<1%
8 (200 б.п.)
<1%
9 (225 б.п.)
<1%
10 (250 б.п.)
<1%
11 (275 б. п.)
<1%
12+ (300+ б.п.)
1%
0 (0 б.п.) 70.5%
1 (25 б.п.) 16%
2 (50 бп) 7%
3 (75 б.п.) 2.7%
$26,916,032 Обс.
$26,916,032 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
0 (0 б.п.)
$4,188,462 Обс.
71%
1 (25 б.п.)
$1,244,767 Обс.
16%
2 (50 бп)
$1,204,248 Обс.
7%
3 (75 б.п.)
$1,113,801 Обс.
3%
4 (100 б.п.)
$1,195,952 Обс.
1%
5 (125 б.п.)
$1,417,454 Обс.
1%
6 (150 б.п.)
$2,489,134 Обс.
1%
7 (175 б.п.)
$1,323,336 Обс.
<1%
8 (200 б.п.)
$1,731,902 Обс.
<1%
9 (225 б.п.)
$2,454,264 Обс.
<1%
10 (250 б.п.)
$3,122,676 Обс.
<1%
11 (275 б. п.)
$3,273,415 Обс.
<1%
12+ (300+ б.п.)
$2,157,220 Обс.
1%
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Persistent inflation pressures from the ongoing Middle East conflict and elevated energy prices have driven market-implied odds for zero Fed rate cuts in 2026 to 70.5%, reflecting a broad trader consensus that the central bank will maintain its 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range. March CPI rose to 3.3% year-over-year while April readings approached 3.8%, outpacing consensus and reinforcing hawkish FOMC communications after the April meeting. A resilient labor market, with modest nonfarm payroll gains and unemployment near 4.3%, has further reduced expectations for easing, prompting major brokerages including BofA to defer any cuts until 2027. CME FedWatch futures currently price roughly 71% odds of no policy change through year-end, with the next FOMC gathering in June serving as a key near-term catalyst for any sentiment shifts.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET
Обсяг
$26,916,032Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Persistent inflation pressures from the ongoing Middle East conflict and elevated energy prices have driven market-implied odds for zero Fed rate cuts in 2026 to 70.5%, reflecting a broad trader consensus that the central bank will maintain its 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range. March CPI rose to 3.3% year-over-year while April readings approached 3.8%, outpacing consensus and reinforcing hawkish FOMC communications after the April meeting. A resilient labor market, with modest nonfarm payroll gains and unemployment near 4.3%, has further reduced expectations for easing, prompting major brokerages including BofA to defer any cuts until 2027. CME FedWatch futures currently price roughly 71% odds of no policy change through year-end, with the next FOMC gathering in June serving as a key near-term catalyst for any sentiment shifts.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Обсяг
$26,916,032Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Persistent inflation pressures from the ongoing Middle East conflict and elevated energy prices have driven market-implied odds for zero Fed rate cuts in 2026 to 70.5%, reflecting a broad trader consensus that the central bank will maintain its 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range. March CPI rose to 3.3% year-over-year while April readings approached 3.8%, outpacing consensus and reinforcing hawkish FOMC communications after the April meeting. A resilient labor market, with modest nonfarm payroll gains and unemployment near 4.3%, has further reduced expectations for easing, prompting major brokerages including BofA to defer any cuts until 2027. CME FedWatch futures currently price roughly 71% odds of no policy change through year-end, with the next FOMC gathering in June serving as a key near-term catalyst for any sentiment shifts.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання