Elevated inflation risks from recent energy price spikes tied to Middle East tensions, alongside resilient labor market data, have anchored trader expectations for no Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026. Market-implied odds now assign a dominant 70.3% probability to zero cuts, reflecting broker forecasts from BofA and Goldman Sachs that push any easing into 2027 amid hotter-than-expected CPI readings and steady consumer spending. With the federal funds rate holding at 3.50%-3.75%, recent FOMC minutes and CME FedWatch pricing underscore a cautious policy stance that prioritizes inflation control over growth support. Upcoming data releases on employment and prices will test whether this consensus holds or allows modest easing later in the year.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено0 (0 б.п.) 70.2%
1 (25 б.п.) 16%
2 (50 бп) 7%
3 (75 б.п.) 2.5%
$26,938,703 Обс.
$26,938,703 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
0 (0 б.п.)
70%
1 (25 б.п.)
16%
2 (50 бп)
7%
3 (75 б.п.)
3%
4 (100 б.п.)
1%
5 (125 б.п.)
1%
6 (150 б.п.)
1%
7 (175 б.п.)
<1%
8 (200 б.п.)
<1%
9 (225 б.п.)
<1%
10 (250 б.п.)
<1%
11 (275 б. п.)
<1%
12+ (300+ б.п.)
1%
0 (0 б.п.) 70.2%
1 (25 б.п.) 16%
2 (50 бп) 7%
3 (75 б.п.) 2.5%
$26,938,703 Обс.
$26,938,703 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
0 (0 б.п.)
$4,189,200 Обс.
70%
1 (25 б.п.)
$1,245,187 Обс.
16%
2 (50 бп)
$1,204,668 Обс.
7%
3 (75 б.п.)
$1,114,221 Обс.
3%
4 (100 б.п.)
$1,196,770 Обс.
1%
5 (125 б.п.)
$1,418,474 Обс.
1%
6 (150 б.п.)
$2,491,184 Обс.
1%
7 (175 б.п.)
$1,324,499 Обс.
<1%
8 (200 б.п.)
$1,734,459 Обс.
<1%
9 (225 б.п.)
$2,455,381 Обс.
<1%
10 (250 б.п.)
$3,124,186 Обс.
<1%
11 (275 б. п.)
$3,274,765 Обс.
<1%
12+ (300+ б.п.)
$2,166,128 Обс.
1%
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Elevated inflation risks from recent energy price spikes tied to Middle East tensions, alongside resilient labor market data, have anchored trader expectations for no Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026. Market-implied odds now assign a dominant 70.3% probability to zero cuts, reflecting broker forecasts from BofA and Goldman Sachs that push any easing into 2027 amid hotter-than-expected CPI readings and steady consumer spending. With the federal funds rate holding at 3.50%-3.75%, recent FOMC minutes and CME FedWatch pricing underscore a cautious policy stance that prioritizes inflation control over growth support. Upcoming data releases on employment and prices will test whether this consensus holds or allows modest easing later in the year.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET
Обсяг
$26,938,703Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Elevated inflation risks from recent energy price spikes tied to Middle East tensions, alongside resilient labor market data, have anchored trader expectations for no Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026. Market-implied odds now assign a dominant 70.3% probability to zero cuts, reflecting broker forecasts from BofA and Goldman Sachs that push any easing into 2027 amid hotter-than-expected CPI readings and steady consumer spending. With the federal funds rate holding at 3.50%-3.75%, recent FOMC minutes and CME FedWatch pricing underscore a cautious policy stance that prioritizes inflation control over growth support. Upcoming data releases on employment and prices will test whether this consensus holds or allows modest easing later in the year.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Обсяг
$26,938,703Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Elevated inflation risks from recent energy price spikes tied to Middle East tensions, alongside resilient labor market data, have anchored trader expectations for no Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026. Market-implied odds now assign a dominant 70.3% probability to zero cuts, reflecting broker forecasts from BofA and Goldman Sachs that push any easing into 2027 amid hotter-than-expected CPI readings and steady consumer spending. With the federal funds rate holding at 3.50%-3.75%, recent FOMC minutes and CME FedWatch pricing underscore a cautious policy stance that prioritizes inflation control over growth support. Upcoming data releases on employment and prices will test whether this consensus holds or allows modest easing later in the year.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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