Trader sentiment in the Federal Reserve rate-cut market heavily favors zero additional easing through the end of 2026, with the leading outcome priced at a 70.3% implied probability. Elevated inflation, partly driven by higher global energy prices amid ongoing Middle East tensions, has prompted the FOMC to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% in recent meetings while stressing data dependence and the 2% target. A stable labor market, with unemployment little changed near 4.3%, has further reduced expectations for near-term policy shifts. Brokerage forecasts have shifted toward holding rates through year-end or into 2027, aligning with CME FedWatch pricing that assigns roughly 70% odds to no cuts. Upcoming CPI releases and FOMC communications could still alter the path if inflation moderates faster than anticipated.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено0 (0 б.п.) 70.2%
1 (25 б.п.) 16%
2 (50 бп) 7%
3 (75 б.п.) 2.6%
$26,943,417 Обс.
$26,943,417 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
0 (0 б.п.)
70%
1 (25 б.п.)
16%
2 (50 бп)
7%
3 (75 б.п.)
3%
4 (100 б.п.)
1%
5 (125 б.п.)
1%
6 (150 б.п.)
1%
7 (175 б.п.)
<1%
8 (200 б.п.)
<1%
9 (225 б.п.)
<1%
10 (250 б.п.)
<1%
11 (275 б. п.)
<1%
12+ (300+ б.п.)
1%
0 (0 б.п.) 70.2%
1 (25 б.п.) 16%
2 (50 бп) 7%
3 (75 б.п.) 2.6%
$26,943,417 Обс.
$26,943,417 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
0 (0 б.п.)
$4,189,211 Обс.
70%
1 (25 б.п.)
$1,245,187 Обс.
16%
2 (50 бп)
$1,204,668 Обс.
7%
3 (75 б.п.)
$1,114,221 Обс.
3%
4 (100 б.п.)
$1,197,097 Обс.
1%
5 (125 б.п.)
$1,418,862 Обс.
1%
6 (150 б.п.)
$2,491,568 Обс.
1%
7 (175 б.п.)
$1,325,475 Обс.
<1%
8 (200 б.п.)
$1,735,528 Обс.
<1%
9 (225 б.п.)
$2,455,821 Обс.
<1%
10 (250 б.п.)
$3,124,342 Обс.
<1%
11 (275 б. п.)
$3,275,372 Обс.
<1%
12+ (300+ б.п.)
$2,166,180 Обс.
1%
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Trader sentiment in the Federal Reserve rate-cut market heavily favors zero additional easing through the end of 2026, with the leading outcome priced at a 70.3% implied probability. Elevated inflation, partly driven by higher global energy prices amid ongoing Middle East tensions, has prompted the FOMC to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% in recent meetings while stressing data dependence and the 2% target. A stable labor market, with unemployment little changed near 4.3%, has further reduced expectations for near-term policy shifts. Brokerage forecasts have shifted toward holding rates through year-end or into 2027, aligning with CME FedWatch pricing that assigns roughly 70% odds to no cuts. Upcoming CPI releases and FOMC communications could still alter the path if inflation moderates faster than anticipated.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET
Обсяг
$26,943,417Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Trader sentiment in the Federal Reserve rate-cut market heavily favors zero additional easing through the end of 2026, with the leading outcome priced at a 70.3% implied probability. Elevated inflation, partly driven by higher global energy prices amid ongoing Middle East tensions, has prompted the FOMC to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% in recent meetings while stressing data dependence and the 2% target. A stable labor market, with unemployment little changed near 4.3%, has further reduced expectations for near-term policy shifts. Brokerage forecasts have shifted toward holding rates through year-end or into 2027, aligning with CME FedWatch pricing that assigns roughly 70% odds to no cuts. Upcoming CPI releases and FOMC communications could still alter the path if inflation moderates faster than anticipated.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Обсяг
$26,943,417Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader sentiment in the Federal Reserve rate-cut market heavily favors zero additional easing through the end of 2026, with the leading outcome priced at a 70.3% implied probability. Elevated inflation, partly driven by higher global energy prices amid ongoing Middle East tensions, has prompted the FOMC to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% in recent meetings while stressing data dependence and the 2% target. A stable labor market, with unemployment little changed near 4.3%, has further reduced expectations for near-term policy shifts. Brokerage forecasts have shifted toward holding rates through year-end or into 2027, aligning with CME FedWatch pricing that assigns roughly 70% odds to no cuts. Upcoming CPI releases and FOMC communications could still alter the path if inflation moderates faster than anticipated.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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