Traders have priced in a 70.5% implied probability of zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, reflecting the market's assessment of sticky inflation and resilient economic data. April 2026 CPI readings came in hotter than expected, driven by elevated energy prices tied to Middle East developments, while core measures showed limited progress toward the 2% target. With the federal funds rate holding steady at the 3.50%-3.75% range after the April FOMC meeting and labor market conditions remaining firm, forward-looking projections from major brokerages have shifted cuts into 2027. Upcoming June and July inflation releases, along with the next Summary of Economic Projections, will likely determine whether any modest easing materializes later in the year.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено0 (0 б.п.) 70.5%
1 (25 б.п.) 16%
2 (50 бп) 7%
3 (75 б.п.) 2.7%
$26,908,669 Обс.
$26,908,669 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
0 (0 б.п.)
71%
1 (25 б.п.)
16%
2 (50 бп)
7%
3 (75 б.п.)
3%
4 (100 б.п.)
2%
5 (125 б.п.)
1%
6 (150 б.п.)
1%
7 (175 б.п.)
<1%
8 (200 б.п.)
<1%
9 (225 б.п.)
<1%
10 (250 б.п.)
<1%
11 (275 б. п.)
<1%
12+ (300+ б.п.)
1%
0 (0 б.п.) 70.5%
1 (25 б.п.) 16%
2 (50 бп) 7%
3 (75 б.п.) 2.7%
$26,908,669 Обс.
$26,908,669 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
0 (0 б.п.)
$4,188,430 Обс.
71%
1 (25 б.п.)
$1,244,767 Обс.
16%
2 (50 бп)
$1,204,227 Обс.
7%
3 (75 б.п.)
$1,113,801 Обс.
3%
4 (100 б.п.)
$1,195,565 Обс.
2%
5 (125 б.п.)
$1,417,195 Обс.
1%
6 (150 б.п.)
$2,487,847 Обс.
1%
7 (175 б.п.)
$1,322,683 Обс.
<1%
8 (200 б.п.)
$1,730,865 Обс.
<1%
9 (225 б.п.)
$2,454,085 Обс.
<1%
10 (250 б.п.)
$3,122,088 Обс.
<1%
11 (275 б. п.)
$3,272,494 Обс.
<1%
12+ (300+ б.п.)
$2,155,568 Обс.
1%
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Traders have priced in a 70.5% implied probability of zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, reflecting the market's assessment of sticky inflation and resilient economic data. April 2026 CPI readings came in hotter than expected, driven by elevated energy prices tied to Middle East developments, while core measures showed limited progress toward the 2% target. With the federal funds rate holding steady at the 3.50%-3.75% range after the April FOMC meeting and labor market conditions remaining firm, forward-looking projections from major brokerages have shifted cuts into 2027. Upcoming June and July inflation releases, along with the next Summary of Economic Projections, will likely determine whether any modest easing materializes later in the year.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET
Обсяг
$26,908,669Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Traders have priced in a 70.5% implied probability of zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, reflecting the market's assessment of sticky inflation and resilient economic data. April 2026 CPI readings came in hotter than expected, driven by elevated energy prices tied to Middle East developments, while core measures showed limited progress toward the 2% target. With the federal funds rate holding steady at the 3.50%-3.75% range after the April FOMC meeting and labor market conditions remaining firm, forward-looking projections from major brokerages have shifted cuts into 2027. Upcoming June and July inflation releases, along with the next Summary of Economic Projections, will likely determine whether any modest easing materializes later in the year.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Обсяг
$26,908,669Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Traders have priced in a 70.5% implied probability of zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, reflecting the market's assessment of sticky inflation and resilient economic data. April 2026 CPI readings came in hotter than expected, driven by elevated energy prices tied to Middle East developments, while core measures showed limited progress toward the 2% target. With the federal funds rate holding steady at the 3.50%-3.75% range after the April FOMC meeting and labor market conditions remaining firm, forward-looking projections from major brokerages have shifted cuts into 2027. Upcoming June and July inflation releases, along with the next Summary of Economic Projections, will likely determine whether any modest easing materializes later in the year.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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