Polymarket traders are pricing a 69.3% implied probability of zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, reflecting hawkish sentiment driven by April's consumer price index surging to 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023—coupled with solid nonfarm payroll growth of 115,000 jobs, exceeding forecasts and signaling resilient labor markets. The FOMC held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% in late April amid an 8-4 split vote and persistent inflation pressures from energy costs tied to geopolitical tensions. Brokerage consensus has shifted toward no easing, aligning with CME FedWatch data showing over 70% odds of rates unchanged through year-end, though upcoming June FOMC projections and May CPI release could sway positioning. A single 25 basis point cut trails at 16.5%, capturing minority bets on modest disinflation.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено0 (0 б.п.) 69.2%
1 (25 б.п.) 17%
2 (50 бп) 7%
3 (75 б.п.) 3.0%
$25,917,535 Обс.
$25,917,535 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
0 (0 б.п.)
69%
1 (25 б.п.)
17%
2 (50 бп)
7%
3 (75 б.п.)
3%
4 (100 б.п.)
1%
5 (125 б.п.)
1%
6 (150 б.п.)
1%
7 (175 б.п.)
<1%
8 (200 б.п.)
<1%
9 (225 б.п.)
<1%
10 (250 б.п.)
<1%
11 (275 б. п.)
<1%
12+ (300+ б.п.)
1%
0 (0 б.п.) 69.2%
1 (25 б.п.) 17%
2 (50 бп) 7%
3 (75 б.п.) 3.0%
$25,917,535 Обс.
$25,917,535 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
0 (0 б.п.)
$4,055,753 Обс.
69%
1 (25 б.п.)
$1,214,605 Обс.
17%
2 (50 бп)
$1,170,364 Обс.
7%
3 (75 б.п.)
$1,064,870 Обс.
3%
4 (100 б.п.)
$1,142,957 Обс.
1%
5 (125 б.п.)
$1,377,382 Обс.
1%
6 (150 б.п.)
$2,434,007 Обс.
1%
7 (175 б.п.)
$1,089,719 Обс.
<1%
8 (200 б.п.)
$1,685,029 Обс.
<1%
9 (225 б.п.)
$2,400,471 Обс.
<1%
10 (250 б.п.)
$3,010,194 Обс.
<1%
11 (275 б. п.)
$3,183,753 Обс.
<1%
12+ (300+ б.п.)
$2,088,678 Обс.
1%
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Polymarket traders are pricing a 69.3% implied probability of zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, reflecting hawkish sentiment driven by April's consumer price index surging to 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023—coupled with solid nonfarm payroll growth of 115,000 jobs, exceeding forecasts and signaling resilient labor markets. The FOMC held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% in late April amid an 8-4 split vote and persistent inflation pressures from energy costs tied to geopolitical tensions. Brokerage consensus has shifted toward no easing, aligning with CME FedWatch data showing over 70% odds of rates unchanged through year-end, though upcoming June FOMC projections and May CPI release could sway positioning. A single 25 basis point cut trails at 16.5%, capturing minority bets on modest disinflation.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET
Обсяг
$25,917,535Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Polymarket traders are pricing a 69.3% implied probability of zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, reflecting hawkish sentiment driven by April's consumer price index surging to 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023—coupled with solid nonfarm payroll growth of 115,000 jobs, exceeding forecasts and signaling resilient labor markets. The FOMC held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% in late April amid an 8-4 split vote and persistent inflation pressures from energy costs tied to geopolitical tensions. Brokerage consensus has shifted toward no easing, aligning with CME FedWatch data showing over 70% odds of rates unchanged through year-end, though upcoming June FOMC projections and May CPI release could sway positioning. A single 25 basis point cut trails at 16.5%, capturing minority bets on modest disinflation.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Обсяг
$25,917,535Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders are pricing a 69.3% implied probability of zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, reflecting hawkish sentiment driven by April's consumer price index surging to 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023—coupled with solid nonfarm payroll growth of 115,000 jobs, exceeding forecasts and signaling resilient labor markets. The FOMC held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% in late April amid an 8-4 split vote and persistent inflation pressures from energy costs tied to geopolitical tensions. Brokerage consensus has shifted toward no easing, aligning with CME FedWatch data showing over 70% odds of rates unchanged through year-end, though upcoming June FOMC projections and May CPI release could sway positioning. A single 25 basis point cut trails at 16.5%, capturing minority bets on modest disinflation.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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