SpaceX's transition to the more capable Starship V3 architecture, featuring Raptor 3 engines and increased propellant capacity, has introduced significant development delays that position low launch totals as the market consensus. With the first 2026 flight test now targeted for May 19 after an empty first quarter, traders see limited scope for rapid cadence despite ongoing upgrades to launch pads and ground systems. Historical patterns of iterative testing, where early V3 flights prioritize data over volume, further support expectations of fewer than five successful ascents this year. Key catalysts ahead include post-flight 12 results and any acceleration in regulatory approvals that could enable a modest ramp-up later in the year.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоСкільки космічних апаратів SpaceX Starship досягне космосу в 2026 році?
Скільки космічних апаратів SpaceX Starship досягне космосу в 2026 році?
<5 47%
5–6 32%
>16 4.1%
7-8 4.0%
$450,036 Обс.
$450,036 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
<5
47%
5–6
27%
7-8
4%
9-10
2%
11-12
2%
13-14
1%
15-16
2%
>16
4%
<5 47%
5–6 32%
>16 4.1%
7-8 4.0%
$450,036 Обс.
$450,036 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
<5
$90,622 Обс.
47%
5–6
$108,327 Обс.
27%
7-8
$152,207 Обс.
4%
9-10
$55,882 Обс.
2%
11-12
$3,765 Обс.
2%
13-14
$4,747 Обс.
1%
15-16
$25,181 Обс.
2%
>16
$9,304 Обс.
4%
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.SpaceX's transition to the more capable Starship V3 architecture, featuring Raptor 3 engines and increased propellant capacity, has introduced significant development delays that position low launch totals as the market consensus. With the first 2026 flight test now targeted for May 19 after an empty first quarter, traders see limited scope for rapid cadence despite ongoing upgrades to launch pads and ground systems. Historical patterns of iterative testing, where early V3 flights prioritize data over volume, further support expectations of fewer than five successful ascents this year. Key catalysts ahead include post-flight 12 results and any acceleration in regulatory approvals that could enable a modest ramp-up later in the year.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ET
Обсяг
$450,036Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.SpaceX's transition to the more capable Starship V3 architecture, featuring Raptor 3 engines and increased propellant capacity, has introduced significant development delays that position low launch totals as the market consensus. With the first 2026 flight test now targeted for May 19 after an empty first quarter, traders see limited scope for rapid cadence despite ongoing upgrades to launch pads and ground systems. Historical patterns of iterative testing, where early V3 flights prioritize data over volume, further support expectations of fewer than five successful ascents this year. Key catalysts ahead include post-flight 12 results and any acceleration in regulatory approvals that could enable a modest ramp-up later in the year.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Обсяг
$450,036Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...SpaceX's transition to the more capable Starship V3 architecture, featuring Raptor 3 engines and increased propellant capacity, has introduced significant development delays that position low launch totals as the market consensus. With the first 2026 flight test now targeted for May 19 after an empty first quarter, traders see limited scope for rapid cadence despite ongoing upgrades to launch pads and ground systems. Historical patterns of iterative testing, where early V3 flights prioritize data over volume, further support expectations of fewer than five successful ascents this year. Key catalysts ahead include post-flight 12 results and any acceleration in regulatory approvals that could enable a modest ramp-up later in the year.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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