Ongoing regional military tensions with the United States and Israel have kept Iranian airspace restrictions in focus, following a partial reopening of eastern routes and limited commercial operations at Tehran’s main airport in late April after weeks of broader shutdowns. Traders weigh the risk of a major new closure—defined as a broad suspension of flights unrelated to weather—against de-escalation signals and cautious resumption of transit traffic. Recent diplomatic accusations and reported force movements in the Persian Gulf have lifted implied probabilities for closure by late May, while historical patterns of short-term, partial measures underscore the threshold for a qualifying event. Scheduled diplomatic or military developments through the end of the month remain the primary near-term catalysts.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоIran bans small private aircraft flights amid regional tensions
May 15 jumps to 14%5%
Iran issued a notice banning small private aircraft from flying in the country, with exceptions for the oil industry and emergency medical flights. This indicated heightened security concerns but did not constitute a major airspace closure affecting commercial flights.
Iran resumes commercial flights at Tehran’s international airport after war hiatus
May 15 plunges to 4%28%
On May 9, 2026, Iranian state media reported the resumption of commercial flights at Imam Khomeini International Airport in Tehran for the first time since the war with the United States and Israel began. This reopening indicated that Iran's airspace was not broadly closed and commercial aviation was operational, reducing the likelihood of a major airspace closure by the May 15 deadline.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання