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Світ·Близький Схід

Лідер Ірану наприкінці 2026 року?

icon for Лідер Ірану наприкінці 2026 року?
Світ·Близький Схід

Лідер Ірану наприкінці 2026 року?

Моджтаба Хаменеї 63.8%

Реза Пехлеві 8%

Мохаммад-Багер Калібаф 3.9%

Немає Глави держави 3.2%

Polymarket

$8,051,378 Обс.

Моджтаба Хаменеї 63.8%

Реза Пехлеві 8%

Мохаммад-Багер Калібаф 3.9%

Немає Глави держави 3.2%

Polymarket

$8,051,378 Обс.

Моджтаба Хаменеї

$1,914,882 Обс.

64%

Реза Пехлеві

$202,799 Обс.

8%

Мохаммад-Багер Калібаф

$224,154 Обс.

4%

Немає Глави держави

$459,324 Обс.

3%

Аббас Арагчі

$185,334 Обс.

3%

Ахмад Вахіді

$271,083 Обс.

3%

Хасан Рухані

$324,648 Обс.

2%

Аліреза Арафі

$833,426 Обс.

1%

Махмуд Ахмадінеджад

$110,580 Обс.

1%

Марʼям Раджаві

$291,446 Обс.

1%

Хасан Хомейні

$785,882 Обс.

1%

Масуд Пезешкіан

$299,020 Обс.

1%

Мохаммад Хатамі

$420,949 Обс.

<1%

Садег Ларіджані

$195,597 Обс.

<1%

Массуд Раджаві

$48,234 Обс.

<1%

Навід Шомалі

$62,223 Обс.

<1%

Мухаммад Мірбакірі

$285,850 Обс.

<1%

Хасан Шаріатмадинарі

$175,162 Обс.

<1%

Реза Пірзаде

$49,640 Обс.

<1%

Голам-Алі Хаддад-Адел

$61,355 Обс.

<1%

Мостафа Пурмохаммаді

$85,198 Обс.

<1%

Саїд Джалілі

$74,836 Обс.

<1%

Мохсен Аракі

$64,309 Обс.

<1%

Алі Асґар Хеджазі

$87,010 Обс.

<1%

Сейед Хоссейн Мусавіан

$47,973 Обс.

<1%

Мустафа Хіджрі

$33,412 Обс.

<1%

Алі Мотахарі

$80,314 Обс.

<1%

Садеґ Махсулі

$64,972 Обс.

<1%

Насір Хоссейні

$31,241 Обс.

<1%

Ахмад Хоссейні Хорасані

$43,664 Обс.

<1%

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Trader consensus favors Mojtaba Khamenei at 63.8% as Iran's Supreme Leader through end-2026, reflecting his March 8 election by the Assembly of Experts following Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's death in a US-Israeli strike on February 28 amid escalating conflict. This succession ensured regime continuity despite wartime disruptions to deliberations. Recent health rumors intensified after February airstrikes reportedly injured him, with officials insisting on May 7 that President Masoud Pezeshkian met him and he remains in "perfect health," issuing military directives via intermediaries—yet persistent speculation of severe injuries or incapacitation has capped his odds below certainty. Reza Pahlavi's 7.5% share captures exiled opposition hopes for regime collapse, while low probabilities for others like Ghalibaf underscore entrenched clerical control amid ongoing hostilities.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Обсяг
$8,051,378
Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026
Ринок відкрито
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Trader consensus favors Mojtaba Khamenei at 63.8% as Iran's Supreme Leader through end-2026, reflecting his March 8 election by the Assembly of Experts following Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's death in a US-Israeli strike on February 28 amid escalating conflict. This succession ensured regime continuity despite wartime disruptions to deliberations. Recent health rumors intensified after February airstrikes reportedly injured him, with officials insisting on May 7 that President Masoud Pezeshkian met him and he remains in "perfect health," issuing military directives via intermediaries—yet persistent speculation of severe injuries or incapacitation has capped his odds below certainty. Reza Pahlavi's 7.5% share captures exiled opposition hopes for regime collapse, while low probabilities for others like Ghalibaf underscore entrenched clerical control amid ongoing hostilities.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Обсяг
$8,051,378
Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026
Ринок відкрито
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.

Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.

Часті запитання

«Лідер Ірану наприкінці 2026 року?» — це ринок прогнозів на Polymarket з 32 можливими результатами, де трейдери купують і продають акції залежно від того, що, на їхню думку, станеться. Поточний лідер — «Моджтаба Хаменеї» з 64%, далі «Реза Пехлеві» з 8%. Ціни відображають краудсорсингові ймовірності в реальному часі. Акції правильного результату погашаються по $1 кожна при вирішенні ринку.

Станом на сьогодні, «Лідер Ірану наприкінці 2026 року?» згенерував $8.1 million загального обсягу торгів з моменту запуску ринку Mar 1, 2026. Цей рівень торгової активності відображає сильну залученість спільноти Polymarket та забезпечує, що поточні шанси базуються на глибокому пулі учасників ринку. Ви можете відстежувати рухи цін наживо та торгувати будь-яким результатом прямо на цій сторінці.

Щоб торгувати на «Лідер Ірану наприкінці 2026 року?», перегляньте 32 доступних результатів на цій сторінці. Кожен результат відображає поточну ціну — ймовірність ринку. Оберіть результат, оберіть «Так» чи «Ні», введіть суму та натисніть «Торгувати». Якщо ваш вибір правильний при вирішенні, акції «Так» виплачують $1. Якщо ні — $0. Ви також можете продати акції в будь-який час до вирішення.

Поточний фаворит для «Лідер Ірану наприкінці 2026 року?» — «Моджтаба Хаменеї» з 64%. Наступний — «Реза Пехлеві» з 8%. Ці шанси оновлюються в реальному часі, коли трейдери купують і продають акції. Слідкуйте за змінами шансів з появою нової інформації.

Правила вирішення для «Лідер Ірану наприкінці 2026 року?» точно визначають, що має статися для оголошення переможця — включаючи офіційні джерела даних. Ви можете переглянути повні критерії вирішення в розділі «Правила» на цій сторінці. Рекомендуємо уважно прочитати правила перед торгівлею.