US intelligence assessments from early May 2026 indicate Iran's timeline to produce a nuclear weapon remains 9-12 months despite US-Israeli airstrikes on nuclear facilities during the ongoing 2026 Iran war, including Operations Midnight Hammer and Rising Lion in June 2025, justifying trader consensus at 91.5% against a nuclear test before 2027. IAEA reports from February-March highlight Iran's stockpile exceeding 440 kg of 60% enriched uranium—a level of serious concern—but confirm no radiation anomalies or diversion to weapons-grade material, with limited agency access to strike-affected sites. Ongoing sanctions, military degradation, and monitoring create substantial barriers to testing, though escalation, covert advances, or diplomatic shifts could alter this trajectory ahead of potential IAEA updates.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоIran nuclear test before 2027?
Iran nuclear test before 2027?
$191,777 Обс.
$191,777 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
$191,777 Обс.
$191,777 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.US intelligence assessments from early May 2026 indicate Iran's timeline to produce a nuclear weapon remains 9-12 months despite US-Israeli airstrikes on nuclear facilities during the ongoing 2026 Iran war, including Operations Midnight Hammer and Rising Lion in June 2025, justifying trader consensus at 91.5% against a nuclear test before 2027. IAEA reports from February-March highlight Iran's stockpile exceeding 440 kg of 60% enriched uranium—a level of serious concern—but confirm no radiation anomalies or diversion to weapons-grade material, with limited agency access to strike-affected sites. Ongoing sanctions, military degradation, and monitoring create substantial barriers to testing, though escalation, covert advances, or diplomatic shifts could alter this trajectory ahead of potential IAEA updates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Обсяг
$191,777Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.US intelligence assessments from early May 2026 indicate Iran's timeline to produce a nuclear weapon remains 9-12 months despite US-Israeli airstrikes on nuclear facilities during the ongoing 2026 Iran war, including Operations Midnight Hammer and Rising Lion in June 2025, justifying trader consensus at 91.5% against a nuclear test before 2027. IAEA reports from February-March highlight Iran's stockpile exceeding 440 kg of 60% enriched uranium—a level of serious concern—but confirm no radiation anomalies or diversion to weapons-grade material, with limited agency access to strike-affected sites. Ongoing sanctions, military degradation, and monitoring create substantial barriers to testing, though escalation, covert advances, or diplomatic shifts could alter this trajectory ahead of potential IAEA updates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$191,777Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US intelligence assessments from early May 2026 indicate Iran's timeline to produce a nuclear weapon remains 9-12 months despite US-Israeli airstrikes on nuclear facilities during the ongoing 2026 Iran war, including Operations Midnight Hammer and Rising Lion in June 2025, justifying trader consensus at 91.5% against a nuclear test before 2027. IAEA reports from February-March highlight Iran's stockpile exceeding 440 kg of 60% enriched uranium—a level of serious concern—but confirm no radiation anomalies or diversion to weapons-grade material, with limited agency access to strike-affected sites. Ongoing sanctions, military degradation, and monitoring create substantial barriers to testing, though escalation, covert advances, or diplomatic shifts could alter this trajectory ahead of potential IAEA updates.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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