Recent US and Israeli airstrikes in February and April 2026, following the June 2025 conflict, have significantly degraded Iran's uranium enrichment infrastructure, weaponization sites, and highly enriched uranium stockpiles, according to assessments from nuclear experts and IAEA reporting. Ongoing diplomatic negotiations for a nuclear agreement, including a June 2026 memorandum of understanding and talks in Doha, have reinforced trader expectations that Tehran will face continued barriers to weaponization before 2027. The wisdom of crowds reflected in the 95.5% implied probability for "No" aligns with these verified setbacks and monitoring gaps. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include undetected reconstitution of centrifuges, collapse of talks prompting accelerated efforts, or verified breakthroughs at hardened sites like Pickaxe Mountain.