US intelligence assessments as of early May 2026 indicate Iran's nuclear program remains capable of weaponization in 9-12 months if pursued, with highly enriched uranium stockpiles largely intact despite recent US and Israeli strikes that inflicted limited new damage and targeted weaponization sites. Trader consensus at 91.1% for "No" reflects this extended timeline amid ongoing US-Iran negotiations, where Vice President Vance reported progress on May 13 toward ending hostilities, potentially including curbs on enrichment. IAEA verification challenges persist, but diplomatic momentum, sanctions, and military deterrence have stalled any sprint to a bomb before 2027, though failed talks or escalation could shift odds.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоТак
$601,519 Обс.
$601,519 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
Так
$601,519 Обс.
$601,519 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".US intelligence assessments as of early May 2026 indicate Iran's nuclear program remains capable of weaponization in 9-12 months if pursued, with highly enriched uranium stockpiles largely intact despite recent US and Israeli strikes that inflicted limited new damage and targeted weaponization sites. Trader consensus at 91.1% for "No" reflects this extended timeline amid ongoing US-Iran negotiations, where Vice President Vance reported progress on May 13 toward ending hostilities, potentially including curbs on enrichment. IAEA verification challenges persist, but diplomatic momentum, sanctions, and military deterrence have stalled any sprint to a bomb before 2027, though failed talks or escalation could shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Ринок відкрито: Nov 13, 2025, 5:50 PM ET
Обсяг
$601,519Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Nov 13, 2025, 5:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".US intelligence assessments as of early May 2026 indicate Iran's nuclear program remains capable of weaponization in 9-12 months if pursued, with highly enriched uranium stockpiles largely intact despite recent US and Israeli strikes that inflicted limited new damage and targeted weaponization sites. Trader consensus at 91.1% for "No" reflects this extended timeline amid ongoing US-Iran negotiations, where Vice President Vance reported progress on May 13 toward ending hostilities, potentially including curbs on enrichment. IAEA verification challenges persist, but diplomatic momentum, sanctions, and military deterrence have stalled any sprint to a bomb before 2027, though failed talks or escalation could shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Обсяг
$601,519Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Nov 13, 2025, 5:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US intelligence assessments as of early May 2026 indicate Iran's nuclear program remains capable of weaponization in 9-12 months if pursued, with highly enriched uranium stockpiles largely intact despite recent US and Israeli strikes that inflicted limited new damage and targeted weaponization sites. Trader consensus at 91.1% for "No" reflects this extended timeline amid ongoing US-Iran negotiations, where Vice President Vance reported progress on May 13 toward ending hostilities, potentially including curbs on enrichment. IAEA verification challenges persist, but diplomatic momentum, sanctions, and military deterrence have stalled any sprint to a bomb before 2027, though failed talks or escalation could shift odds.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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