Recent polling for Israel's October 27 election shows Ra'am projected at 4–5 seats, consistent with a 3.25–4.75% vote share range that accounts for most market probability. The party's decision to run independently after finalizing its split from the Islamic Movement and the re-formed Joint List has concentrated its support among voters favoring pragmatic engagement, while the addition of former Yesh Atid MK Yoav Segalovitz to the slate introduces uncertainty over potential crossover appeal and turnout effects among Arab and moderate voters. Arab parties overall continue to poll near 11–12 seats, but internal competition and the 3.25% threshold create tight margins for Ra'am specifically. Trader pricing reflects these variables, with limited recent shifts in surveys released after candidate lists closed on September 8–9.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено3.25-4% 27%
<3.25% 23%
4-4.75% 21%
4.75-5.5% 16%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 30, 2026
<3.25%
23%
3.25-4%
27%
4-4.75%
16%
4.75-5.5%
16%
5.5%+
8%
3.25-4% 27%
<3.25% 23%
4-4.75% 21%
4.75-5.5% 16%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 30, 2026
<3.25%
$118 Обс.
23%
3.25-4%
$167 Обс.
27%
4-4.75%
$569 Обс.
16%
4.75-5.5%
$140 Обс.
16%
5.5%+
$175 Обс.
8%
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by United Arab List (Ra'am) party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Arab List (Ra'am)'s party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether United Arab List (Ra'am) passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If United Arab List (Ra'am) contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Arab List (Ra'am) merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).Recent polling for Israel's October 27 election shows Ra'am projected at 4–5 seats, consistent with a 3.25–4.75% vote share range that accounts for most market probability. The party's decision to run independently after finalizing its split from the Islamic Movement and the re-formed Joint List has concentrated its support among voters favoring pragmatic engagement, while the addition of former Yesh Atid MK Yoav Segalovitz to the slate introduces uncertainty over potential crossover appeal and turnout effects among Arab and moderate voters. Arab parties overall continue to poll near 11–12 seats, but internal competition and the 3.25% threshold create tight margins for Ra'am specifically. Trader pricing reflects these variables, with limited recent shifts in surveys released after candidate lists closed on September 8–9.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by United Arab List (Ra'am) party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Arab List (Ra'am)'s party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether United Arab List (Ra'am) passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If United Arab List (Ra'am) contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Arab List (Ra'am) merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by United Arab List (Ra'am) party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Arab List (Ra'am)'s party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether United Arab List (Ra'am) passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If United Arab List (Ra'am) contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Arab List (Ra'am) merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
Ринок відкрито: Sep 8, 2026, 4:19 PM ET
Обсяг
$1,169Дата завершення
Oct 27, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 8, 2026, 4:19 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.bechirot.gov.il/Вирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by United Arab List (Ra'am) party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Arab List (Ra'am)'s party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether United Arab List (Ra'am) passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If United Arab List (Ra'am) contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Arab List (Ra'am) merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).Recent polling for Israel's October 27 election shows Ra'am projected at 4–5 seats, consistent with a 3.25–4.75% vote share range that accounts for most market probability. The party's decision to run independently after finalizing its split from the Islamic Movement and the re-formed Joint List has concentrated its support among voters favoring pragmatic engagement, while the addition of former Yesh Atid MK Yoav Segalovitz to the slate introduces uncertainty over potential crossover appeal and turnout effects among Arab and moderate voters. Arab parties overall continue to poll near 11–12 seats, but internal competition and the 3.25% threshold create tight margins for Ra'am specifically. Trader pricing reflects these variables, with limited recent shifts in surveys released after candidate lists closed on September 8–9.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by United Arab List (Ra'am) party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Arab List (Ra'am)'s party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether United Arab List (Ra'am) passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If United Arab List (Ra'am) contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Arab List (Ra'am) merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by United Arab List (Ra'am) party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Arab List (Ra'am)'s party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether United Arab List (Ra'am) passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If United Arab List (Ra'am) contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Arab List (Ra'am) merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
Обсяг
$1,169Дата завершення
Oct 27, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 8, 2026, 4:19 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.bechirot.gov.il/Вирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling for Israel's October 27 election shows Ra'am projected at 4–5 seats, consistent with a 3.25–4.75% vote share range that accounts for most market probability. The party's decision to run independently after finalizing its split from the Islamic Movement and the re-formed Joint List has concentrated its support among voters favoring pragmatic engagement, while the addition of former Yesh Atid MK Yoav Segalovitz to the slate introduces uncertainty over potential crossover appeal and turnout effects among Arab and moderate voters. Arab parties overall continue to poll near 11–12 seats, but internal competition and the 3.25% threshold create tight margins for Ra'am specifically. Trader pricing reflects these variables, with limited recent shifts in surveys released after candidate lists closed on September 8–9.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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