Ongoing US-brokered talks between Israel and Lebanon, including a May 2026 Washington round and the May 15 extension of the April 16 ceasefire by 45 days, represent the primary diplomatic driver shaping trader views on an Israeli withdrawal timeline. Israel maintains positions south of the Blue Line and has conducted recent airstrikes to prevent Hezbollah rearmament, while Lebanese officials continue pressing for full troop pullback, border demarcation, and prisoner releases under frameworks tied to UN Resolution 1701. These security and political tracks, alongside scheduled follow-up meetings, highlight the contested path to de-escalation, with any progress on Hezbollah disarmament or normalization likely to influence near-term resolution prospects amid persistent regional tensions.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоIsrael withdraws from Lebanon by...?
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?
$1,543,433 Обс.
Jun 30, 2026
May 31
1%
June 30
7%
$1,543,433 Обс.
May 31
$1,237,290 Обс.
1%
June 30
$231,136 Обс.
7%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.Ongoing US-brokered talks between Israel and Lebanon, including a May 2026 Washington round and the May 15 extension of the April 16 ceasefire by 45 days, represent the primary diplomatic driver shaping trader views on an Israeli withdrawal timeline. Israel maintains positions south of the Blue Line and has conducted recent airstrikes to prevent Hezbollah rearmament, while Lebanese officials continue pressing for full troop pullback, border demarcation, and prisoner releases under frameworks tied to UN Resolution 1701. These security and political tracks, alongside scheduled follow-up meetings, highlight the contested path to de-escalation, with any progress on Hezbollah disarmament or normalization likely to influence near-term resolution prospects amid persistent regional tensions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Apr 16, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
Обсяг
$1,543,433Дата завершення
Jun 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 16, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.Ongoing US-brokered talks between Israel and Lebanon, including a May 2026 Washington round and the May 15 extension of the April 16 ceasefire by 45 days, represent the primary diplomatic driver shaping trader views on an Israeli withdrawal timeline. Israel maintains positions south of the Blue Line and has conducted recent airstrikes to prevent Hezbollah rearmament, while Lebanese officials continue pressing for full troop pullback, border demarcation, and prisoner releases under frameworks tied to UN Resolution 1701. These security and political tracks, alongside scheduled follow-up meetings, highlight the contested path to de-escalation, with any progress on Hezbollah disarmament or normalization likely to influence near-term resolution prospects amid persistent regional tensions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
Обсяг
$1,543,433Дата завершення
Jun 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 16, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing US-brokered talks between Israel and Lebanon, including a May 2026 Washington round and the May 15 extension of the April 16 ceasefire by 45 days, represent the primary diplomatic driver shaping trader views on an Israeli withdrawal timeline. Israel maintains positions south of the Blue Line and has conducted recent airstrikes to prevent Hezbollah rearmament, while Lebanese officials continue pressing for full troop pullback, border demarcation, and prisoner releases under frameworks tied to UN Resolution 1701. These security and political tracks, alongside scheduled follow-up meetings, highlight the contested path to de-escalation, with any progress on Hezbollah disarmament or normalization likely to influence near-term resolution prospects amid persistent regional tensions.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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