Iranian Kurdish opposition parties formed a coalition in February 2026 to coordinate efforts against the central government, emphasizing self-determination and potential administration of Kurdish-majority regions in the event of regime collapse. Despite reports of external interest in supporting armed groups amid the broader US-Israel-Iran conflict, no major faction has issued a formal declaration of independence or asserted governing authority over territory inside Iran. Kurdish organizations remain fragmented, prioritize regime overthrow over secession, and face significant military and diplomatic constraints within Iran's unitary state structure. Iranian security forces have conducted operations to suppress insurgent activity, while neighboring states and international actors have shown limited backing for territorial breakup. No developments in the past month have altered these barriers, sustaining trader consensus on the low likelihood of such an outcome before the June 2026 resolution date.