**Official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) and supporting models indicate a minimum temperature of 27°C for September 21, 2026, aligning with the 67.5% market-implied probability for that outcome.** Weak northeasterly winds (force 2–3), an upper-level disturbance, and high pressure maintaining warm, humid conditions (relative humidity 65–95%) support this range, with daytime highs of 31–32°C and overnight lows holding near 27°C amid scattered showers and possible thunderstorms. Historical late-September baselines for Hong Kong typically feature minima of 25–27°C under similar subtropical patterns, and current model consensus shows no strong cooling mechanisms such as enhanced cloud cover or frontal passages that would push readings to 26°C or below. Recent stability in these conditions, with no major forecast revisions in the past 24–48 hours, underpins trader confidence in the 27°C threshold while assigning lower probabilities to cooler or warmer outliers. Updated HKO briefings and any shifts in steering flow or rainfall timing represent the next key data points.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоLowest temperature in Hong Kong on September 21?
Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on September 21?
27°C 89%
26°C 10%
24°C 7%
25°C 4%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 21, 2026
22°C or below
2%
23°C
1%
24°C
7%
25°C
4%
26°C
10%
27°C
89%
28°C
<1%
29°C
1%
30°C
1%
31°C
1%
32°C or higher
<1%
27°C 89%
26°C 10%
24°C 7%
25°C 4%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 21, 2026
22°C or below
$37 Обс.
2%
23°C
$380 Обс.
1%
24°C
$220 Обс.
7%
25°C
$407 Обс.
4%
26°C
$803 Обс.
10%
27°C
$2,598 Обс.
89%
28°C
$3,266 Обс.
<1%
29°C
$30 Обс.
1%
30°C
$284 Обс.
1%
31°C
$280 Обс.
1%
32°C or higher
$4 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) and supporting models indicate a minimum temperature of 27°C for September 21, 2026, aligning with the 67.5% market-implied probability for that outcome.**
Weak northeasterly winds (force 2–3), an upper-level disturbance, and high pressure maintaining warm, humid conditions (relative humidity 65–95%) support this range, with daytime highs of 31–32°C and overnight lows holding near 27°C amid scattered showers and possible thunderstorms. Historical late-September baselines for Hong Kong typically feature minima of 25–27°C under similar subtropical patterns, and current model consensus shows no strong cooling mechanisms such as enhanced cloud cover or frontal passages that would push readings to 26°C or below.
Recent stability in these conditions, with no major forecast revisions in the past 24–48 hours, underpins trader confidence in the 27°C threshold while assigning lower probabilities to cooler or warmer outliers. Updated HKO briefings and any shifts in steering flow or rainfall timing represent the next key data points.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 19, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Обсяг
$8,310Дата завершення
Sep 21, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 19, 2026, 12:30 AM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) and supporting models indicate a minimum temperature of 27°C for September 21, 2026, aligning with the 67.5% market-implied probability for that outcome.**
Weak northeasterly winds (force 2–3), an upper-level disturbance, and high pressure maintaining warm, humid conditions (relative humidity 65–95%) support this range, with daytime highs of 31–32°C and overnight lows holding near 27°C amid scattered showers and possible thunderstorms. Historical late-September baselines for Hong Kong typically feature minima of 25–27°C under similar subtropical patterns, and current model consensus shows no strong cooling mechanisms such as enhanced cloud cover or frontal passages that would push readings to 26°C or below.
Recent stability in these conditions, with no major forecast revisions in the past 24–48 hours, underpins trader confidence in the 27°C threshold while assigning lower probabilities to cooler or warmer outliers. Updated HKO briefings and any shifts in steering flow or rainfall timing represent the next key data points.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Обсяг
$8,310Дата завершення
Sep 21, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 19, 2026, 12:30 AM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...**Official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) and supporting models indicate a minimum temperature of 27°C for September 21, 2026, aligning with the 67.5% market-implied probability for that outcome.** Weak northeasterly winds (force 2–3), an upper-level disturbance, and high pressure maintaining warm, humid conditions (relative humidity 65–95%) support this range, with daytime highs of 31–32°C and overnight lows holding near 27°C amid scattered showers and possible thunderstorms. Historical late-September baselines for Hong Kong typically feature minima of 25–27°C under similar subtropical patterns, and current model consensus shows no strong cooling mechanisms such as enhanced cloud cover or frontal passages that would push readings to 26°C or below. Recent stability in these conditions, with no major forecast revisions in the past 24–48 hours, underpins trader confidence in the 27°C threshold while assigning lower probabilities to cooler or warmer outliers. Updated HKO briefings and any shifts in steering flow or rainfall timing represent the next key data points.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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