Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate Madrid's overnight low on August 29 will likely fall between 14–16°C under clear skies and light northeasterly winds associated with a stable high-pressure ridge. These conditions favor radiational cooling after sunset, with dew points near 10–11°C limiting moisture retention and allowing surface temperatures to drop further if winds remain calm. Trader consensus assigning the highest implied probability (41%) to 11°C or below reflects uncertainty in the precise strength of nocturnal cooling and minor model spread on boundary-layer mixing, while clustered values around 12–14°C capture the narrower range supported by current guidance. Updated runs from ECMWF and GFS in the next 24–48 hours will refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоLowest temperature in Madrid on August 29?
Lowest temperature in Madrid on August 29?
11°C or below 39%
13°C 33%
12°C 28%
14°C 26%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 29, 2026
11°C or below
39%
12°C
28%
13°C
33%
14°C
26%
15°C
24%
16°C
24%
17°C
24%
18°C
15%
19°C
8%
20°C
8%
21°C or higher
2%
11°C or below 39%
13°C 33%
12°C 28%
14°C 26%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 29, 2026
11°C or below
$0 Обс.
39%
12°C
$0 Обс.
28%
13°C
$0 Обс.
33%
14°C
$0 Обс.
26%
15°C
$0 Обс.
24%
16°C
$0 Обс.
24%
17°C
$0 Обс.
24%
18°C
$5 Обс.
15%
19°C
$5 Обс.
8%
20°C
$5 Обс.
8%
21°C or higher
$5 Обс.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate Madrid's overnight low on August 29 will likely fall between 14–16°C under clear skies and light northeasterly winds associated with a stable high-pressure ridge. These conditions favor radiational cooling after sunset, with dew points near 10–11°C limiting moisture retention and allowing surface temperatures to drop further if winds remain calm. Trader consensus assigning the highest implied probability (41%) to 11°C or below reflects uncertainty in the precise strength of nocturnal cooling and minor model spread on boundary-layer mixing, while clustered values around 12–14°C capture the narrower range supported by current guidance. Updated runs from ECMWF and GFS in the next 24–48 hours will refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 27, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Обсяг
$20Дата завершення
Aug 29, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 27, 2026, 12:30 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate Madrid's overnight low on August 29 will likely fall between 14–16°C under clear skies and light northeasterly winds associated with a stable high-pressure ridge. These conditions favor radiational cooling after sunset, with dew points near 10–11°C limiting moisture retention and allowing surface temperatures to drop further if winds remain calm. Trader consensus assigning the highest implied probability (41%) to 11°C or below reflects uncertainty in the precise strength of nocturnal cooling and minor model spread on boundary-layer mixing, while clustered values around 12–14°C capture the narrower range supported by current guidance. Updated runs from ECMWF and GFS in the next 24–48 hours will refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$20Дата завершення
Aug 29, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 27, 2026, 12:30 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate Madrid's overnight low on August 29 will likely fall between 14–16°C under clear skies and light northeasterly winds associated with a stable high-pressure ridge. These conditions favor radiational cooling after sunset, with dew points near 10–11°C limiting moisture retention and allowing surface temperatures to drop further if winds remain calm. Trader consensus assigning the highest implied probability (41%) to 11°C or below reflects uncertainty in the precise strength of nocturnal cooling and minor model spread on boundary-layer mixing, while clustered values around 12–14°C capture the narrower range supported by current guidance. Updated runs from ECMWF and GFS in the next 24–48 hours will refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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