**Official forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration point to a minimum of 24°C for Seoul-Incheon on August 16, 2026, amid continued rain and cloud cover that limits overnight radiative cooling.** This aligns with the market’s leading 24°C outcome at 44.5% implied probability, followed closely by 23°C at 33%, reflecting trader assessment of small forecast variations. Mid-August subtropical conditions in the region normally produce overnight lows in the low-to-mid 20s°C, elevated this period by high humidity, dew points, and frequent showers that trap heat near the surface. The KMA short-range outlook shows 60% precipitation probability with mostly cloudy skies, consistent with recent model runs and historical analogs for the season. Traders appear to weigh the risk of slightly cooler readings if breaks in the clouds allow more cooling against the baseline moist, stable air mass. No major shifts in steering patterns or incoming air masses are indicated in the latest updates, keeping the 23–25°C range dominant. Upcoming KMA and global model runs over the next 12–24 hours will likely refine the exact minimum and influence any further movement in these probabilities.