Trader consensus assigns an 91.5% implied probability to no VEI ≥6 eruption in 2026, driven by the event's historical rarity—such colossal eruptions, which eject at least 10 cubic kilometers of material per the Volcanic Explosivity Index scale, occur roughly every 50–100 years, with the most recent at Mount Pinatubo in 1991. Through mid-May 2026, USGS and Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program data confirm 47 active volcanoes worldwide, yet all display only low-VEI effusive or moderate explosive behavior, lacking seismic swarms, rapid ground deformation, or significant magma chamber recharge at monitored calderas and stratovolcanoes. Ongoing daily alerts and aviation color codes provide continuous oversight for the remainder of the year, though undetected unrest at remote or less-instrumented sites such as Campi Flegrei could still emerge and shift probabilities.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоMajor volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?
Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?
$80,401 Обс.
$80,401 Обс.
Mar 31, 2027
$80,401 Обс.
$80,401 Обс.
Mar 31, 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader consensus assigns an 91.5% implied probability to no VEI ≥6 eruption in 2026, driven by the event's historical rarity—such colossal eruptions, which eject at least 10 cubic kilometers of material per the Volcanic Explosivity Index scale, occur roughly every 50–100 years, with the most recent at Mount Pinatubo in 1991. Through mid-May 2026, USGS and Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program data confirm 47 active volcanoes worldwide, yet all display only low-VEI effusive or moderate explosive behavior, lacking seismic swarms, rapid ground deformation, or significant magma chamber recharge at monitored calderas and stratovolcanoes. Ongoing daily alerts and aviation color codes provide continuous oversight for the remainder of the year, though undetected unrest at remote or less-instrumented sites such as Campi Flegrei could still emerge and shift probabilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ET
Обсяг
$80,401Дата завершення
Mar 31, 2027Ринок відкрито
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader consensus assigns an 91.5% implied probability to no VEI ≥6 eruption in 2026, driven by the event's historical rarity—such colossal eruptions, which eject at least 10 cubic kilometers of material per the Volcanic Explosivity Index scale, occur roughly every 50–100 years, with the most recent at Mount Pinatubo in 1991. Through mid-May 2026, USGS and Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program data confirm 47 active volcanoes worldwide, yet all display only low-VEI effusive or moderate explosive behavior, lacking seismic swarms, rapid ground deformation, or significant magma chamber recharge at monitored calderas and stratovolcanoes. Ongoing daily alerts and aviation color codes provide continuous oversight for the remainder of the year, though undetected unrest at remote or less-instrumented sites such as Campi Flegrei could still emerge and shift probabilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Обсяг
$80,401Дата завершення
Mar 31, 2027Ринок відкрито
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus assigns an 91.5% implied probability to no VEI ≥6 eruption in 2026, driven by the event's historical rarity—such colossal eruptions, which eject at least 10 cubic kilometers of material per the Volcanic Explosivity Index scale, occur roughly every 50–100 years, with the most recent at Mount Pinatubo in 1991. Through mid-May 2026, USGS and Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program data confirm 47 active volcanoes worldwide, yet all display only low-VEI effusive or moderate explosive behavior, lacking seismic swarms, rapid ground deformation, or significant magma chamber recharge at monitored calderas and stratovolcanoes. Ongoing daily alerts and aviation color codes provide continuous oversight for the remainder of the year, though undetected unrest at remote or less-instrumented sites such as Campi Flegrei could still emerge and shift probabilities.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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