Major eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher are infrequent, occurring roughly once every 50–100 years based on the geological record, with the most recent example being Mount Pinatubo in 1991. As of mid-August 2026, global monitoring networks including the USGS and Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program report no volcanoes exhibiting the sustained high-level unrest, massive magma accumulation, or rapid inflation signals required for such an event in the remaining months of the year. Ongoing activity remains limited to smaller VEI 0–3 eruptions or effusive flows. This scarcity of precursors underpins the 93.7% market-implied probability of no VEI ≥6 eruption. Unforeseen rapid escalation at a monitored caldera such as Taal or Iwo Jima could still alter outcomes before year-end.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоMajor volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?
Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?
6% шанс
$127,916 Обс.
$127,916 Обс.
Mar 31, 2027
6% шанс
$127,916 Обс.
$127,916 Обс.
Mar 31, 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Major eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher are infrequent, occurring roughly once every 50–100 years based on the geological record, with the most recent example being Mount Pinatubo in 1991. As of mid-August 2026, global monitoring networks including the USGS and Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program report no volcanoes exhibiting the sustained high-level unrest, massive magma accumulation, or rapid inflation signals required for such an event in the remaining months of the year. Ongoing activity remains limited to smaller VEI 0–3 eruptions or effusive flows. This scarcity of precursors underpins the 93.7% market-implied probability of no VEI ≥6 eruption. Unforeseen rapid escalation at a monitored caldera such as Taal or Iwo Jima could still alter outcomes before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ET
Обсяг
$127,916Дата завершення
Mar 31, 2027Ринок відкрито
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Major eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher are infrequent, occurring roughly once every 50–100 years based on the geological record, with the most recent example being Mount Pinatubo in 1991. As of mid-August 2026, global monitoring networks including the USGS and Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program report no volcanoes exhibiting the sustained high-level unrest, massive magma accumulation, or rapid inflation signals required for such an event in the remaining months of the year. Ongoing activity remains limited to smaller VEI 0–3 eruptions or effusive flows. This scarcity of precursors underpins the 93.7% market-implied probability of no VEI ≥6 eruption. Unforeseen rapid escalation at a monitored caldera such as Taal or Iwo Jima could still alter outcomes before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Обсяг
$127,916Дата завершення
Mar 31, 2027Ринок відкрито
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Major eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher are infrequent, occurring roughly once every 50–100 years based on the geological record, with the most recent example being Mount Pinatubo in 1991. As of mid-August 2026, global monitoring networks including the USGS and Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program report no volcanoes exhibiting the sustained high-level unrest, massive magma accumulation, or rapid inflation signals required for such an event in the remaining months of the year. Ongoing activity remains limited to smaller VEI 0–3 eruptions or effusive flows. This scarcity of precursors underpins the 93.7% market-implied probability of no VEI ≥6 eruption. Unforeseen rapid escalation at a monitored caldera such as Taal or Iwo Jima could still alter outcomes before year-end.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання