Recent weakness in Mexico's economy, highlighted by the 0.8% quarter-over-quarter GDP contraction in Q1 2026—sharper than the 0.5% consensus decline—has tempered trader expectations for Q2, pushing the leading 0.0-0.5% range to a 45.5% implied probability. High-frequency indicators show softening industrial production, manufacturing exports, and domestic demand amid U.S. trade uncertainty and moderating remittances. Full-year 2026 consensus forecasts from the Bank of Mexico, IMF, and others cluster around 1.5-1.8%, supporting competitive pricing for the 1.5-2.0% bin at 38.5%, while lower ranges reflect base effects and potential policy easing. Monthly releases through June remain key swing factors that could shift these closely matched probabilities.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоMexico GDP growth in Q2 2026?
Mexico GDP growth in Q2 2026?
-0.5-0.0% 51%
0.5-1.0% 48%
1.5-2.0% 39%
1.0-1.5% 26%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Jul 30, 2026
<-0.5%
25%
-0.5-0.0%
28%
0.0-0.5%
46%
0.5-1.0%
28%
1.0-1.5%
26%
1.5-2.0%
39%
2.0-2.5%
11%
2.5%+
11%
-0.5-0.0% 51%
0.5-1.0% 48%
1.5-2.0% 39%
1.0-1.5% 26%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Jul 30, 2026
<-0.5%
$4 Обс.
25%
-0.5-0.0%
$24 Обс.
28%
0.0-0.5%
$11 Обс.
46%
0.5-1.0%
$6 Обс.
28%
1.0-1.5%
$2 Обс.
26%
1.5-2.0%
$0 Обс.
39%
2.0-2.5%
$0 Обс.
11%
2.5%+
$0 Обс.
11%
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent weakness in Mexico's economy, highlighted by the 0.8% quarter-over-quarter GDP contraction in Q1 2026—sharper than the 0.5% consensus decline—has tempered trader expectations for Q2, pushing the leading 0.0-0.5% range to a 45.5% implied probability. High-frequency indicators show softening industrial production, manufacturing exports, and domestic demand amid U.S. trade uncertainty and moderating remittances. Full-year 2026 consensus forecasts from the Bank of Mexico, IMF, and others cluster around 1.5-1.8%, supporting competitive pricing for the 1.5-2.0% bin at 38.5%, while lower ranges reflect base effects and potential policy easing. Monthly releases through June remain key swing factors that could shift these closely matched probabilities.
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Ринок відкрито: May 4, 2026, 11:35 AM ET
Обсяг
$47Дата завершення
Jul 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 4, 2026, 11:35 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent weakness in Mexico's economy, highlighted by the 0.8% quarter-over-quarter GDP contraction in Q1 2026—sharper than the 0.5% consensus decline—has tempered trader expectations for Q2, pushing the leading 0.0-0.5% range to a 45.5% implied probability. High-frequency indicators show softening industrial production, manufacturing exports, and domestic demand amid U.S. trade uncertainty and moderating remittances. Full-year 2026 consensus forecasts from the Bank of Mexico, IMF, and others cluster around 1.5-1.8%, supporting competitive pricing for the 1.5-2.0% bin at 38.5%, while lower ranges reflect base effects and potential policy easing. Monthly releases through June remain key swing factors that could shift these closely matched probabilities.
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Обсяг
$47Дата завершення
Jul 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 4, 2026, 11:35 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent weakness in Mexico's economy, highlighted by the 0.8% quarter-over-quarter GDP contraction in Q1 2026—sharper than the 0.5% consensus decline—has tempered trader expectations for Q2, pushing the leading 0.0-0.5% range to a 45.5% implied probability. High-frequency indicators show softening industrial production, manufacturing exports, and domestic demand amid U.S. trade uncertainty and moderating remittances. Full-year 2026 consensus forecasts from the Bank of Mexico, IMF, and others cluster around 1.5-1.8%, supporting competitive pricing for the 1.5-2.0% bin at 38.5%, while lower ranges reflect base effects and potential policy easing. Monthly releases through June remain key swing factors that could shift these closely matched probabilities.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання