The Democratic Party of Korea's commanding position in the June 3, 2026 National Assembly by-elections stems from its status as the ruling party under President Lee Jae-myung, whose approval ratings remain above 55 percent in recent surveys. With up to 14 seats vacated by lawmakers seeking local offices, DP candidates have secured nominations in key districts including Busan and Gyeonggi Province, where they hold structural advantages over the weakened People Power Party opposition still affected by prior scandals. Trader consensus reflected in the 81 percent probability for 10 or more seats won aligns with these dynamics, as historical patterns show ruling parties performing strongly in concurrent by-elections when presidential popularity stays elevated. Potential shifts could arise from localized turnout variations or late campaign developments before voting concludes.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено# of seats won by DP in South Korea by-elections?
# of seats won by DP in South Korea by-elections?
10+ 80.7%
8-9 5.0%
2-3 <1%
0-1 <1%
$34,584 Обс.
$34,584 Обс.
Jun 3, 2026
0-1
<1%
2-3
<1%
4-5
<1%
6-7
<1%
8-9
20%
10+
78%
10+ 80.7%
8-9 5.0%
2-3 <1%
0-1 <1%
$34,584 Обс.
$34,584 Обс.
Jun 3, 2026
0-1
$3,928 Обс.
<1%
2-3
$5,328 Обс.
<1%
4-5
$3,763 Обс.
<1%
6-7
$3,754 Обс.
<1%
8-9
$4,426 Обс.
20%
10+
$13,385 Обс.
78%
At least four South Korean parliamentary seats will be contested in by-elections on June 3, 2026, held alongside the nationwide local elections taking place on the same day. Re-elections are equivalent to by-elections for the purposes of this market.
This market will resolve according to the number of National Assembly seats won by the Democratic Party of Korea (DP) in parliamentary by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026.
Any seat won by the Democratic Party of Korea in these elections will count, regardless of the party that controlled the relevant seat prior to these elections. Seats uncontested during the June 3 election will not have any impact on the resolution of this market.
If the results of these elections are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in these elections, not any coalition or alliance of which it may be a part.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission (http://nec.go.kr/site/nec/main.do).
Note: this market includes any National Assembly seats contested in by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026, not just elections which are scheduled as of this market’s creation.The Democratic Party of Korea's commanding position in the June 3, 2026 National Assembly by-elections stems from its status as the ruling party under President Lee Jae-myung, whose approval ratings remain above 55 percent in recent surveys. With up to 14 seats vacated by lawmakers seeking local offices, DP candidates have secured nominations in key districts including Busan and Gyeonggi Province, where they hold structural advantages over the weakened People Power Party opposition still affected by prior scandals. Trader consensus reflected in the 81 percent probability for 10 or more seats won aligns with these dynamics, as historical patterns show ruling parties performing strongly in concurrent by-elections when presidential popularity stays elevated. Potential shifts could arise from localized turnout variations or late campaign developments before voting concludes.
At least four South Korean parliamentary seats will be contested in by-elections on June 3, 2026, held alongside the nationwide local elections taking place on the same day. Re-elections are equivalent to by-elections for the purposes of this market.
This market will resolve according to the number of National Assembly seats won by the Democratic Party of Korea (DP) in parliamentary by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026.
Any seat won by the Democratic Party of Korea in these elections will count, regardless of the party that controlled the relevant seat prior to these elections. Seats uncontested during the June 3 election will not have any impact on the resolution of this market.
If the results of these elections are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in these elections, not any coalition or alliance of which it may be a part.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission (http://nec.go.kr/site/nec/main.do).
Note: this market includes any National Assembly seats contested in by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026, not just elections which are scheduled as of this market’s creation.
This market will resolve according to the number of National Assembly seats won by the Democratic Party of Korea (DP) in parliamentary by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026.
Any seat won by the Democratic Party of Korea in these elections will count, regardless of the party that controlled the relevant seat prior to these elections. Seats uncontested during the June 3 election will not have any impact on the resolution of this market.
If the results of these elections are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in these elections, not any coalition or alliance of which it may be a part.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission (http://nec.go.kr/site/nec/main.do).
Note: this market includes any National Assembly seats contested in by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026, not just elections which are scheduled as of this market’s creation.
Ринок відкрито: Feb 12, 2026, 4:13 PM ET
Обсяг
$34,584Дата завершення
Jun 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Feb 12, 2026, 4:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...At least four South Korean parliamentary seats will be contested in by-elections on June 3, 2026, held alongside the nationwide local elections taking place on the same day. Re-elections are equivalent to by-elections for the purposes of this market.
This market will resolve according to the number of National Assembly seats won by the Democratic Party of Korea (DP) in parliamentary by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026.
Any seat won by the Democratic Party of Korea in these elections will count, regardless of the party that controlled the relevant seat prior to these elections. Seats uncontested during the June 3 election will not have any impact on the resolution of this market.
If the results of these elections are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in these elections, not any coalition or alliance of which it may be a part.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission (http://nec.go.kr/site/nec/main.do).
Note: this market includes any National Assembly seats contested in by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026, not just elections which are scheduled as of this market’s creation.The Democratic Party of Korea's commanding position in the June 3, 2026 National Assembly by-elections stems from its status as the ruling party under President Lee Jae-myung, whose approval ratings remain above 55 percent in recent surveys. With up to 14 seats vacated by lawmakers seeking local offices, DP candidates have secured nominations in key districts including Busan and Gyeonggi Province, where they hold structural advantages over the weakened People Power Party opposition still affected by prior scandals. Trader consensus reflected in the 81 percent probability for 10 or more seats won aligns with these dynamics, as historical patterns show ruling parties performing strongly in concurrent by-elections when presidential popularity stays elevated. Potential shifts could arise from localized turnout variations or late campaign developments before voting concludes.
At least four South Korean parliamentary seats will be contested in by-elections on June 3, 2026, held alongside the nationwide local elections taking place on the same day. Re-elections are equivalent to by-elections for the purposes of this market.
This market will resolve according to the number of National Assembly seats won by the Democratic Party of Korea (DP) in parliamentary by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026.
Any seat won by the Democratic Party of Korea in these elections will count, regardless of the party that controlled the relevant seat prior to these elections. Seats uncontested during the June 3 election will not have any impact on the resolution of this market.
If the results of these elections are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in these elections, not any coalition or alliance of which it may be a part.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission (http://nec.go.kr/site/nec/main.do).
Note: this market includes any National Assembly seats contested in by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026, not just elections which are scheduled as of this market’s creation.
This market will resolve according to the number of National Assembly seats won by the Democratic Party of Korea (DP) in parliamentary by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026.
Any seat won by the Democratic Party of Korea in these elections will count, regardless of the party that controlled the relevant seat prior to these elections. Seats uncontested during the June 3 election will not have any impact on the resolution of this market.
If the results of these elections are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in these elections, not any coalition or alliance of which it may be a part.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission (http://nec.go.kr/site/nec/main.do).
Note: this market includes any National Assembly seats contested in by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026, not just elections which are scheduled as of this market’s creation.
Обсяг
$34,584Дата завершення
Jun 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Feb 12, 2026, 4:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Democratic Party of Korea's commanding position in the June 3, 2026 National Assembly by-elections stems from its status as the ruling party under President Lee Jae-myung, whose approval ratings remain above 55 percent in recent surveys. With up to 14 seats vacated by lawmakers seeking local offices, DP candidates have secured nominations in key districts including Busan and Gyeonggi Province, where they hold structural advantages over the weakened People Power Party opposition still affected by prior scandals. Trader consensus reflected in the 81 percent probability for 10 or more seats won aligns with these dynamics, as historical patterns show ruling parties performing strongly in concurrent by-elections when presidential popularity stays elevated. Potential shifts could arise from localized turnout variations or late campaign developments before voting concludes.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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