Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors the Parti Québécois (PQ) at 56% implied probability to win the most seats in Quebec's first-past-the-post system for the October 5, 2026 general election, driven by its dominance among francophone voters (35-38% in May polls) and favorable seat projections like 338Canada's 64 seats despite tight vote shares. Recent May 13 Pallas Data and Synopsis Recherche polls show PQ edging PLQ 29-30% to 28-30%, with CAQ at 18-19% gaining from new leader Christine Fréchette's "Fréchette effect" since her April 12 victory and swearing-in as premier amid François Legault's January resignation. PLQ trails at 28% amid leadership transition to Charles Milliard, while smaller parties like PCQ lag far behind. Upcoming debates and regional dynamics in battleground ridings could shift the closely contested race.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоПереможець загальних виборів у Квебеку
Переможець загальних виборів у Квебеку
ПК 57%
ЛПК 28%
CAQ 11%
ПКК <1%
$503,223 Обс.
$503,223 Обс.
Oct 5, 2026
ПК
57%
ЛПК
28%
CAQ
11%
ПКК
<1%
PVQ
<1%
QS
<1%
ПК 57%
ЛПК 28%
CAQ 11%
ПКК <1%
$503,223 Обс.
$503,223 Обс.
Oct 5, 2026
ПК
$52,261 Обс.
57%
ЛПК
$55,890 Обс.
28%
CAQ
$58,633 Обс.
11%
ПКК
$163,325 Обс.
<1%
PVQ
$114,822 Обс.
<1%
QS
$58,291 Обс.
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors the Parti Québécois (PQ) at 56% implied probability to win the most seats in Quebec's first-past-the-post system for the October 5, 2026 general election, driven by its dominance among francophone voters (35-38% in May polls) and favorable seat projections like 338Canada's 64 seats despite tight vote shares. Recent May 13 Pallas Data and Synopsis Recherche polls show PQ edging PLQ 29-30% to 28-30%, with CAQ at 18-19% gaining from new leader Christine Fréchette's "Fréchette effect" since her April 12 victory and swearing-in as premier amid François Legault's January resignation. PLQ trails at 28% amid leadership transition to Charles Milliard, while smaller parties like PCQ lag far behind. Upcoming debates and regional dynamics in battleground ridings could shift the closely contested race.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Ринок відкрито: Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ET
Обсяг
$503,223Дата завершення
Oct 5, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors the Parti Québécois (PQ) at 56% implied probability to win the most seats in Quebec's first-past-the-post system for the October 5, 2026 general election, driven by its dominance among francophone voters (35-38% in May polls) and favorable seat projections like 338Canada's 64 seats despite tight vote shares. Recent May 13 Pallas Data and Synopsis Recherche polls show PQ edging PLQ 29-30% to 28-30%, with CAQ at 18-19% gaining from new leader Christine Fréchette's "Fréchette effect" since her April 12 victory and swearing-in as premier amid François Legault's January resignation. PLQ trails at 28% amid leadership transition to Charles Milliard, while smaller parties like PCQ lag far behind. Upcoming debates and regional dynamics in battleground ridings could shift the closely contested race.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Обсяг
$503,223Дата завершення
Oct 5, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors the Parti Québécois (PQ) at 56% implied probability to win the most seats in Quebec's first-past-the-post system for the October 5, 2026 general election, driven by its dominance among francophone voters (35-38% in May polls) and favorable seat projections like 338Canada's 64 seats despite tight vote shares. Recent May 13 Pallas Data and Synopsis Recherche polls show PQ edging PLQ 29-30% to 28-30%, with CAQ at 18-19% gaining from new leader Christine Fréchette's "Fréchette effect" since her April 12 victory and swearing-in as premier amid François Legault's January resignation. PLQ trails at 28% amid leadership transition to Charles Milliard, while smaller parties like PCQ lag far behind. Upcoming debates and regional dynamics in battleground ridings could shift the closely contested race.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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