Recent U.S.-mediated diplomacy produced a temporary three-day ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia from May 9 to 11 that included a prisoner exchange of 1,000 individuals per side. Kremlin statements immediately afterward emphasized that core territorial, security, and political disagreements remain unresolved and that any comprehensive settlement is still far off, with formal talks currently paused. These developments, occurring within the past week, reinforce trader consensus that a full peace agreement is unlikely to be reached and signed before the June 30 deadline. Ongoing military activity outside the brief truce window and the absence of breakthroughs on major sticking points further support the 94.5 percent implied probability assigned to the “No” outcome.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено$439,585 Обс.
$439,585 Обс.
Jun 30, 2026
$439,585 Обс.
$439,585 Обс.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Recent U.S.-mediated diplomacy produced a temporary three-day ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia from May 9 to 11 that included a prisoner exchange of 1,000 individuals per side. Kremlin statements immediately afterward emphasized that core territorial, security, and political disagreements remain unresolved and that any comprehensive settlement is still far off, with formal talks currently paused. These developments, occurring within the past week, reinforce trader consensus that a full peace agreement is unlikely to be reached and signed before the June 30 deadline. Ongoing military activity outside the brief truce window and the absence of breakthroughs on major sticking points further support the 94.5 percent implied probability assigned to the “No” outcome.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Dec 17, 2025, 5:37 PM ET
Обсяг
$439,585Дата завершення
Jun 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 17, 2025, 5:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Recent U.S.-mediated diplomacy produced a temporary three-day ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia from May 9 to 11 that included a prisoner exchange of 1,000 individuals per side. Kremlin statements immediately afterward emphasized that core territorial, security, and political disagreements remain unresolved and that any comprehensive settlement is still far off, with formal talks currently paused. These developments, occurring within the past week, reinforce trader consensus that a full peace agreement is unlikely to be reached and signed before the June 30 deadline. Ongoing military activity outside the brief truce window and the absence of breakthroughs on major sticking points further support the 94.5 percent implied probability assigned to the “No” outcome.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$439,585Дата завершення
Jun 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 17, 2025, 5:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S.-mediated diplomacy produced a temporary three-day ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia from May 9 to 11 that included a prisoner exchange of 1,000 individuals per side. Kremlin statements immediately afterward emphasized that core territorial, security, and political disagreements remain unresolved and that any comprehensive settlement is still far off, with formal talks currently paused. These developments, occurring within the past week, reinforce trader consensus that a full peace agreement is unlikely to be reached and signed before the June 30 deadline. Ongoing military activity outside the brief truce window and the absence of breakthroughs on major sticking points further support the 94.5 percent implied probability assigned to the “No” outcome.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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