President Trump’s October 2025 directive to resume nuclear testing “on an equal basis” in response to alleged Russian and Chinese activities below the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty threshold remains the central driver of sentiment. No full-yield explosive test has occurred since 1992, and National Nuclear Security Administration readiness timelines, infrastructure constraints at the Nevada site, and the absence of dedicated recent funding continue to limit near-term feasibility. Statements from administration officials in early 2026 reaffirmed the policy without confirming explosive tests, while internal planning documents reference potential activity before the end of 2028. Traders assign low probabilities to tests by late 2026, reflecting these technical, diplomatic, and budgetary hurdles alongside ongoing arms-control tensions following New START’s expiration.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоЯдерне випробування США...?
Ядерне випробування США...?
$770,068 Обс.
Sep 30, 2026
30 вересня 2026 року
1%
31 грудня 2026 року
4%
$770,068 Обс.
30 вересня 2026 року
$57,189 Обс.
1%
31 грудня 2026 року
$52,068 Обс.
4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump’s October 2025 directive to resume nuclear testing “on an equal basis” in response to alleged Russian and Chinese activities below the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty threshold remains the central driver of sentiment. No full-yield explosive test has occurred since 1992, and National Nuclear Security Administration readiness timelines, infrastructure constraints at the Nevada site, and the absence of dedicated recent funding continue to limit near-term feasibility. Statements from administration officials in early 2026 reaffirmed the policy without confirming explosive tests, while internal planning documents reference potential activity before the end of 2028. Traders assign low probabilities to tests by late 2026, reflecting these technical, diplomatic, and budgetary hurdles alongside ongoing arms-control tensions following New START’s expiration.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Обсяг
$770,068Дата завершення
Mar 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump’s October 2025 directive to resume nuclear testing “on an equal basis” in response to alleged Russian and Chinese activities below the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty threshold remains the central driver of sentiment. No full-yield explosive test has occurred since 1992, and National Nuclear Security Administration readiness timelines, infrastructure constraints at the Nevada site, and the absence of dedicated recent funding continue to limit near-term feasibility. Statements from administration officials in early 2026 reaffirmed the policy without confirming explosive tests, while internal planning documents reference potential activity before the end of 2028. Traders assign low probabilities to tests by late 2026, reflecting these technical, diplomatic, and budgetary hurdles alongside ongoing arms-control tensions following New START’s expiration.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$770,068Дата завершення
Mar 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Trump’s October 2025 directive to resume nuclear testing “on an equal basis” in response to alleged Russian and Chinese activities below the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty threshold remains the central driver of sentiment. No full-yield explosive test has occurred since 1992, and National Nuclear Security Administration readiness timelines, infrastructure constraints at the Nevada site, and the absence of dedicated recent funding continue to limit near-term feasibility. Statements from administration officials in early 2026 reaffirmed the policy without confirming explosive tests, while internal planning documents reference potential activity before the end of 2028. Traders assign low probabilities to tests by late 2026, reflecting these technical, diplomatic, and budgetary hurdles alongside ongoing arms-control tensions following New START’s expiration.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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