Recent hotter-than-expected April 2026 CPI and PCE readings, amplified by geopolitical oil-price pressures tied to Middle East tensions, have lifted trader-implied odds for the federal funds rate closing 2026 at 3.75 percent. The resilient labor market, with unemployment holding near 4.3 percent and steady nonfarm payrolls, has reduced downside risks that might otherwise support deeper easing, while the Fed’s April 29 decision to hold the target range at 3.50–3.75 percent in an 8-4 vote underscored a cautious stance. Markets now price limited cuts through year-end, with the June FOMC meeting and subsequent inflation releases serving as key tests of whether upside inflation risks continue to outweigh any softening in employment data.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоЯкою буде ставка ФРС наприкінці 2026 року?
Якою буде ставка ФРС наприкінці 2026 року?
3,75% 59.7%
4,0% 14.7%
3,25% 8%
3,5% 7%
$6,523,485 Обс.
$6,523,485 Обс.
Dec 9, 2026
≤1,0%
<1%
1,25
1%
1,5%
<1%
1,75%
1%
2,0%
<1%
2,25%
<1%
2,5%
1%
2,75%
1%
3,0%
4%
3,25%
8%
3,5%
7%
3,75%
60%
4,0%
15%
4,25%
4%
≥ 4,5%
1%
3,75% 59.7%
4,0% 14.7%
3,25% 8%
3,5% 7%
$6,523,485 Обс.
$6,523,485 Обс.
Dec 9, 2026
≤1,0%
$216,014 Обс.
<1%
1,25
$134,363 Обс.
1%
1,5%
$134,117 Обс.
<1%
1,75%
$134,015 Обс.
1%
2,0%
$246,062 Обс.
<1%
2,25%
$70,849 Обс.
<1%
2,5%
$158,852 Обс.
1%
2,75%
$46,024 Обс.
1%
3,0%
$454,736 Обс.
4%
3,25%
$51,537 Обс.
8%
3,5%
$190,202 Обс.
7%
3,75%
$518,453 Обс.
60%
4,0%
$1,358,628 Обс.
15%
4,25%
$413,593 Обс.
4%
≥ 4,5%
$2,396,040 Обс.
1%
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).Recent hotter-than-expected April 2026 CPI and PCE readings, amplified by geopolitical oil-price pressures tied to Middle East tensions, have lifted trader-implied odds for the federal funds rate closing 2026 at 3.75 percent. The resilient labor market, with unemployment holding near 4.3 percent and steady nonfarm payrolls, has reduced downside risks that might otherwise support deeper easing, while the Fed’s April 29 decision to hold the target range at 3.50–3.75 percent in an 8-4 vote underscored a cautious stance. Markets now price limited cuts through year-end, with the June FOMC meeting and subsequent inflation releases serving as key tests of whether upside inflation risks continue to outweigh any softening in employment data.
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
Ринок відкрито: Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ET
Обсяг
$6,523,485Дата завершення
Dec 9, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).Recent hotter-than-expected April 2026 CPI and PCE readings, amplified by geopolitical oil-price pressures tied to Middle East tensions, have lifted trader-implied odds for the federal funds rate closing 2026 at 3.75 percent. The resilient labor market, with unemployment holding near 4.3 percent and steady nonfarm payrolls, has reduced downside risks that might otherwise support deeper easing, while the Fed’s April 29 decision to hold the target range at 3.50–3.75 percent in an 8-4 vote underscored a cautious stance. Markets now price limited cuts through year-end, with the June FOMC meeting and subsequent inflation releases serving as key tests of whether upside inflation risks continue to outweigh any softening in employment data.
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
Обсяг
$6,523,485Дата завершення
Dec 9, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent hotter-than-expected April 2026 CPI and PCE readings, amplified by geopolitical oil-price pressures tied to Middle East tensions, have lifted trader-implied odds for the federal funds rate closing 2026 at 3.75 percent. The resilient labor market, with unemployment holding near 4.3 percent and steady nonfarm payrolls, has reduced downside risks that might otherwise support deeper easing, while the Fed’s April 29 decision to hold the target range at 3.50–3.75 percent in an 8-4 vote underscored a cautious stance. Markets now price limited cuts through year-end, with the June FOMC meeting and subsequent inflation releases serving as key tests of whether upside inflation risks continue to outweigh any softening in employment data.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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