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Політика·Тарифи Fed

Якою буде ставка ФРС наприкінці 2026 року?

icon for Якою буде ставка ФРС наприкінці 2026 року?
Політика·Тарифи Fed

Якою буде ставка ФРС наприкінці 2026 року?

3,75% 59.7%

4,0% 17.8%

3,25% 8%

3,5% 7%

Polymarket

$6,523,655 Обс.

3,75% 59.7%

4,0% 17.8%

3,25% 8%

3,5% 7%

Polymarket

$6,523,655 Обс.

≤1,0%

$216,014 Обс.

<1%

1,25

$134,363 Обс.

1%

1,5%

$134,117 Обс.

<1%

1,75%

$134,015 Обс.

1%

2,0%

$246,062 Обс.

<1%

2,25%

$70,849 Обс.

<1%

2,5%

$158,852 Обс.

1%

2,75%

$46,024 Обс.

1%

3,0%

$454,736 Обс.

4%

3,25%

$51,537 Обс.

8%

3,5%

$190,202 Обс.

7%

3,75%

$518,453 Обс.

60%

4,0%

$1,358,661 Обс.

18%

4,25%

$413,730 Обс.

6%

≥ 4,5%

$2,396,040 Обс.

1%

The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time. The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).Traders assign the highest market-implied odds of 59.7% to a 3.75% federal funds rate by the end of 2026, reflecting the Fed’s recent decision to hold the target range at 3.50%-3.75% through the April 2026 FOMC meeting amid elevated core inflation and resilient labor-market data. Recent Middle East developments have added upside risks to energy prices, prompting brokerages such as Goldman Sachs and BofA to delay or eliminate expected cuts for the balance of the year. This pricing aligns closely with the March 2026 Summary of Economic Projections, which embedded only one modest easing step, while CME FedWatch futures now embed roughly a 70% chance of no further policy change through year-end. Key near-term catalysts include the next inflation releases and the June FOMC meeting, where any shift in the balance of risks could quickly reprice the terminal-rate distribution.

The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.

This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.

The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
Обсяг
$6,523,655
Дата завершення
Dec 9, 2026
Ринок відкрито
Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time. The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time. The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).Traders assign the highest market-implied odds of 59.7% to a 3.75% federal funds rate by the end of 2026, reflecting the Fed’s recent decision to hold the target range at 3.50%-3.75% through the April 2026 FOMC meeting amid elevated core inflation and resilient labor-market data. Recent Middle East developments have added upside risks to energy prices, prompting brokerages such as Goldman Sachs and BofA to delay or eliminate expected cuts for the balance of the year. This pricing aligns closely with the March 2026 Summary of Economic Projections, which embedded only one modest easing step, while CME FedWatch futures now embed roughly a 70% chance of no further policy change through year-end. Key near-term catalysts include the next inflation releases and the June FOMC meeting, where any shift in the balance of risks could quickly reprice the terminal-rate distribution.

The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.

This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.

The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
Обсяг
$6,523,655
Дата завершення
Dec 9, 2026
Ринок відкрито
Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time. The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).

Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.

Часті запитання

«Якою буде ставка ФРС наприкінці 2026 року?» — це ринок прогнозів на Polymarket з 15 можливими результатами, де трейдери купують і продають акції залежно від того, що, на їхню думку, станеться. Поточний лідер — «3,75%» з 60%, далі «4,0%» з 18%. Ціни відображають краудсорсингові ймовірності в реальному часі. Акції правильного результату погашаються по $1 кожна при вирішенні ринку.

Станом на сьогодні, «Якою буде ставка ФРС наприкінці 2026 року?» згенерував $6.5 million загального обсягу торгів з моменту запуску ринку Jan 12, 2026. Цей рівень торгової активності відображає сильну залученість спільноти Polymarket та забезпечує, що поточні шанси базуються на глибокому пулі учасників ринку. Ви можете відстежувати рухи цін наживо та торгувати будь-яким результатом прямо на цій сторінці.

Щоб торгувати на «Якою буде ставка ФРС наприкінці 2026 року?», перегляньте 15 доступних результатів на цій сторінці. Кожен результат відображає поточну ціну — ймовірність ринку. Оберіть результат, оберіть «Так» чи «Ні», введіть суму та натисніть «Торгувати». Якщо ваш вибір правильний при вирішенні, акції «Так» виплачують $1. Якщо ні — $0. Ви також можете продати акції в будь-який час до вирішення.

Поточний фаворит для «Якою буде ставка ФРС наприкінці 2026 року?» — «3,75%» з 60%. Наступний — «4,0%» з 18%. Ці шанси оновлюються в реальному часі, коли трейдери купують і продають акції. Слідкуйте за змінами шансів з появою нової інформації.

Правила вирішення для «Якою буде ставка ФРС наприкінці 2026 року?» точно визначають, що має статися для оголошення переможця — включаючи офіційні джерела даних. Ви можете переглянути повні критерії вирішення в розділі «Правила» на цій сторінці. Рекомендуємо уважно прочитати правила перед торгівлею.