Diplomatic tensions with Israel persist amid ongoing regional conflicts, yet no government has expelled an Israeli ambassador since South Africa’s January 2026 action. Parliamentary calls in the UK, Jordan, and Australia have not prompted executive decisions, while Iran’s March 2026 incentives for expulsions produced no follow-through from Arab or European states. Spain recalled its own envoy rather than expelling Israel’s representative. With more than half of 2026 elapsed and no broader wave of diplomatic breaks materializing, trader consensus assigns an 84.5% probability that no additional expulsion occurs before December 31.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоWill any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31?
Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31?
15% шанс
$42,545 Обс.
$42,545 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
15% шанс
$42,545 Обс.
$42,545 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Israeli ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where an Israeli ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a Israeli ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel, including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Diplomatic tensions with Israel persist amid ongoing regional conflicts, yet no government has expelled an Israeli ambassador since South Africa’s January 2026 action. Parliamentary calls in the UK, Jordan, and Australia have not prompted executive decisions, while Iran’s March 2026 incentives for expulsions produced no follow-through from Arab or European states. Spain recalled its own envoy rather than expelling Israel’s representative. With more than half of 2026 elapsed and no broader wave of diplomatic breaks materializing, trader consensus assigns an 84.5% probability that no additional expulsion occurs before December 31.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Israeli ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where an Israeli ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a Israeli ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel, including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any expulsion from a country where an Israeli ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a Israeli ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel, including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ET
Обсяг
$42,545Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Israeli ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where an Israeli ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a Israeli ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel, including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Diplomatic tensions with Israel persist amid ongoing regional conflicts, yet no government has expelled an Israeli ambassador since South Africa’s January 2026 action. Parliamentary calls in the UK, Jordan, and Australia have not prompted executive decisions, while Iran’s March 2026 incentives for expulsions produced no follow-through from Arab or European states. Spain recalled its own envoy rather than expelling Israel’s representative. With more than half of 2026 elapsed and no broader wave of diplomatic breaks materializing, trader consensus assigns an 84.5% probability that no additional expulsion occurs before December 31.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Israeli ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where an Israeli ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a Israeli ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel, including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any expulsion from a country where an Israeli ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a Israeli ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel, including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Обсяг
$42,545Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Diplomatic tensions with Israel persist amid ongoing regional conflicts, yet no government has expelled an Israeli ambassador since South Africa’s January 2026 action. Parliamentary calls in the UK, Jordan, and Australia have not prompted executive decisions, while Iran’s March 2026 incentives for expulsions produced no follow-through from Arab or European states. Spain recalled its own envoy rather than expelling Israel’s representative. With more than half of 2026 elapsed and no broader wave of diplomatic breaks materializing, trader consensus assigns an 84.5% probability that no additional expulsion occurs before December 31.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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