Traders assign a 96.3% probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2026 because verifiable indicators of large-scale amphibious mobilization, sustained logistics buildup, or command signals remain absent, while Beijing continues gray-zone patrols, air incursions, and maritime enforcement operations instead. U.S. intelligence assessments confirm Chinese leaders lack a fixed timeline for unification by force, and recent diplomatic contacts alongside Taiwan’s Han Kuang exercises and asymmetric defense investments have reinforced deterrence. With only months remaining, structural constraints on rapid force projection make an operation improbable. Late-year miscalculation during drills, sudden leadership signaling, or external shocks could still shift dynamics, though current patterns show no supporting indicators.