China’s ongoing preference for grey-zone coercion through record coast guard and research vessel patrols, live-fire drills, and maritime law-enforcement operations around Taiwan—without observable amphibious buildup or logistics movements—underpins trader consensus that a full-scale invasion will not occur by the end of September. Recent military purges in Beijing, sustained U.S.-China diplomatic engagement, and Taiwan’s accelerated defense spending and drone procurement further reduce near-term invasion readiness. The one-month resolution window leaves little scope for the extensive preparations required for cross-strait landings. Low-probability shifts could still arise from rapid escalation triggered by a major incident, miscalculation during routine exercises, or sudden leadership decisions, though no such indicators have emerged in the past thirty days.