Traders assign a 98.5% probability against Xi Jinping divorcing before 2027 primarily because his marriage to Peng Liyuan since 1987 shows no signs of strain in official statements, state media coverage, or public appearances. The Chinese leadership's tightly managed information environment further suppresses rumors or leaks that could surface elsewhere. Historical precedent of stable elite family presentations and the absence of any verifiable recent developments reinforce this consensus. Realistic scenarios that could still shift the outcome include sudden health developments affecting either spouse, an unforeseen political transition that alters personal circumstances, or rare institutional disclosures, though these remain low-probability events within the resolution window.