Tropical Storm Dolly formed as a minimal system with 35-40 knot winds but rapidly weakened into an open tropical wave by late August 28, 2026, due to increasing southwesterly wind shear and dry mid-level air that disrupted its closed circulation, as confirmed by National Hurricane Center satellite and buoy data. These hostile atmospheric conditions, combined with the system's fast westward motion near 25 mph, have suppressed organization despite warm sea surface temperatures, making any intensification to hurricane strength (64+ knots on the Saffir-Simpson scale) highly improbable. The NHC currently assesses near-zero redevelopment odds over the next 48 hours and only 10% through seven days as the remnants approach the Leeward Islands. While a slight chance of regeneration exists if shear relaxes after interaction with the islands, model consensus and current environmental data strongly support the market's 97.5% "No" consensus.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоWill Tropical Storm Dolly strengthen to a hurricane?
Will Tropical Storm Dolly strengthen to a hurricane?
3% шанс
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 3, 2026
3% шанс
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 3, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Dolly reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Dolly reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Dolly does not reach hurricane strength by September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".Tropical Storm Dolly formed as a minimal system with 35-40 knot winds but rapidly weakened into an open tropical wave by late August 28, 2026, due to increasing southwesterly wind shear and dry mid-level air that disrupted its closed circulation, as confirmed by National Hurricane Center satellite and buoy data. These hostile atmospheric conditions, combined with the system's fast westward motion near 25 mph, have suppressed organization despite warm sea surface temperatures, making any intensification to hurricane strength (64+ knots on the Saffir-Simpson scale) highly improbable. The NHC currently assesses near-zero redevelopment odds over the next 48 hours and only 10% through seven days as the remnants approach the Leeward Islands. While a slight chance of regeneration exists if shear relaxes after interaction with the islands, model consensus and current environmental data strongly support the market's 97.5% "No" consensus.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Dolly reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Dolly reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Dolly does not reach hurricane strength by September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".
Dolly reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Dolly does not reach hurricane strength by September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".
Ринок відкрито: Aug 27, 2026, 2:37 PM ET
Обсяг
$725Дата завершення
Sep 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 27, 2026, 2:37 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Вирішувач
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Dolly reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Dolly reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Dolly does not reach hurricane strength by September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".Tropical Storm Dolly formed as a minimal system with 35-40 knot winds but rapidly weakened into an open tropical wave by late August 28, 2026, due to increasing southwesterly wind shear and dry mid-level air that disrupted its closed circulation, as confirmed by National Hurricane Center satellite and buoy data. These hostile atmospheric conditions, combined with the system's fast westward motion near 25 mph, have suppressed organization despite warm sea surface temperatures, making any intensification to hurricane strength (64+ knots on the Saffir-Simpson scale) highly improbable. The NHC currently assesses near-zero redevelopment odds over the next 48 hours and only 10% through seven days as the remnants approach the Leeward Islands. While a slight chance of regeneration exists if shear relaxes after interaction with the islands, model consensus and current environmental data strongly support the market's 97.5% "No" consensus.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Dolly reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Dolly reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Dolly does not reach hurricane strength by September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".
Dolly reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Dolly does not reach hurricane strength by September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".
Обсяг
$725Дата завершення
Sep 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 27, 2026, 2:37 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Вирішувач
0x65070BE91...Tropical Storm Dolly formed as a minimal system with 35-40 knot winds but rapidly weakened into an open tropical wave by late August 28, 2026, due to increasing southwesterly wind shear and dry mid-level air that disrupted its closed circulation, as confirmed by National Hurricane Center satellite and buoy data. These hostile atmospheric conditions, combined with the system's fast westward motion near 25 mph, have suppressed organization despite warm sea surface temperatures, making any intensification to hurricane strength (64+ knots on the Saffir-Simpson scale) highly improbable. The NHC currently assesses near-zero redevelopment odds over the next 48 hours and only 10% through seven days as the remnants approach the Leeward Islands. While a slight chance of regeneration exists if shear relaxes after interaction with the islands, model consensus and current environmental data strongly support the market's 97.5% "No" consensus.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання